Series Preview: Mariners (36-42) at Athletics (36-45)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Thursday, July 2	7:05 pm	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias	Athletics	LHP Scott Kazmir
Friday, July 3	6:05 pm	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ	Athletics	RHP Jesse Chavez
Saturday, July 4	1:05 pm	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez	Athletics	RHP Kendall Graveman
Sunday, July 5	1:05 pm	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	Athletics	RHP Sonny Gray

	Mariners	Athletics	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	89 (14th in AL)	104 (6th in AL)	Athletics
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.0 (10th)	-30.5 (14th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	102 (8th)	88 (1st)	Athletics
Bullpen (FIP-)	101 (9th)	106 (10th)	Mariners

The Mariners have put together a rare two-game winning streak and travel to Oakland to face their division rivals. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gate and are now fighting for last place in the AL West. Neither team is fully out of the playoff picture yet but the A’s have played like the better team recently. Their +48 run differential is tied for third best in the league, bolstered by one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Their Achilles heel has continued to be their bullpen and their defense.

The Athletics:

After two miserable months, the Athletics came alive in June, running a 15-12 record to move into a virtual tie with the Mariners for fourth in the AL West. They’re wrapping up a ten-game homestand with these four games this weekend. They were swept by the Royals last weekend but won two of three against the Rockies earlier this week.

Key Players

IF/OF Ben Zobrist – Before the A’s traded for Ben Zobrist, they were in the midst of an incredibly confusing offseason. After they acquired Zobrist, everything fell into place. He’s the glue that holds this roster together and was a perfect fit for what Billy Beane built in Oakland. Despite losing most of his power, he’s maintained his 5.4 fWAR production level over the last two years. His plate discipline numbers are among the best in the game and that should allow him to continue to be productive into the latter half of his career.

3B Brett Lawrie – Brett Lawrie has never been able to replicate the gaudy numbers he put up in 43 games during his rookie year. His high energy playing style has led to a myriad of injuries that have forced him to miss 38% of his games over the last three years. The Athletics are hoping that getting him off the turf in Toronto will lead to a healthier year for Lawrie. When he is on the field, Lawrie has provided league average offensive production. A career low walk rate last year is particularly concerning. He isn’t particularly known for his patience, but if he’s not getting on base more often and isn’t hitting for as much power, it’s hard to see how he’ll produce an above average line at the plate.

1B Billy Butler – Signing Billy Butler was a perplexing acquisition at the time. Butler had seen two straight years of declining offensive production in Kansas City and wasn’t about to provide any value in the field or on the basepaths. Throwing money after a declining bat-only player seems like a fool’s errand. Yet, the Athletics might have added some diversity to their lineup with a relatively rare offensive skillset. Billy Beane obviously sees something in Butler—if he’s able to return to his previous offensive levels, it would go a long way towards pushing the Athletics towards contention.

C Stephen Vogt – I believe in Stephen Vogt. He made his major league debut when he was 28 and didn’t start receiving regular playing time until he was 30, but the A’s traded away Derek Norris so that Vogt could become their everyday catcher. His walk rate has jumped up to match his low strikeout rate this year and he’s hitting for more power than ever before. His home run rate should fall from its lofty heights but the plate discipline looks like it’s for real—he swinging at a much lower rate but still making contact at a rate similar to his career average.

RF Josh Reddick – Josh Reddick suffered through an injury-plagued season last year. He’s returned with a vengeance this year but he looks like a completely different player at the plate. His strikeout rate is a miniscule 9.4% which is around half of his career average. Like Vogt, he’s swinging at the lowest rate of his career but he’s making more contact than ever before. His BABIP is fairly high but it matches his 24.1% line drive rate. The Athletics promoted a new hitting coach this year and it looks like he’s been able to instill a new hitting philosophy that values swinging to make hard contact. Both Vogt and Reddick have benefitted from this new approach and it seems like the improvements have stuck.

SS Marcus Semien – Marcus Semien was acquired this offseason from the White Sox in the Jeff Samardzija trade. He’s made the transition to full-time shortstop this year after primarily playing second and third in the minors. Defensively, he hasn’t been very impressive—he leads the league in errors and UZR thinks he’s the second worst shortstop in the game. DRS is a bit more optimistic, pegging him as just below average, but I think we can safely say his defense isn’t a strength. Offensively, he’s been right around league average with a little bit of pop in his bat. Overall, that combination makes for a league average shortstop which isn’t bad considering he’s only 24-years-old.

Probable Pitchers

LHP Scott Kazmir
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
90 1/3	22.7%		8.8%		8.4%		44.1%		2.79		3.37
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
93.4 mph; 34.4%		92.0 mph; 22.7%		87.6 mph; 15.5%		77.7 mph; 19.2%		82.1 mph; 4.9%		78.7 mph; 3.4%

Now two years removed from his improbable comeback in 2013, Scott Kazmir has proven that his newfound success isn’t a mirage. He’s still striking out a ton of batters but his walk rate has jumped up to almost 9%. He’s almost completely abandoned his two breaking balls in favor of more cutters. He’s been able to induce an above average whiff rate on all four pitches he relies on the most. He’s using his cutter like he used his slider, primarily against left-handed batters. It’s been very effective as a weapon against lefties and it’s helped him correct the reverse platoon split he ran last year.

RHP Jesse Chavez
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
89 1/3	21.2%		6.3%		5.4%		40.9%		3.02		2.89
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
93.1 mph; 17.0%		92.7 mph; 20.6%		91.8 mph; 34.0%		85.3 mph; 17.2%		84.0 mph; 8.2%		77.0 mph; 2.8%

Jesse Chavez has pitched for five different teams in his eight years in the Majors but was never really given a shot to start until last year. He made 21 starts for the A’s last year and his results didn’t suffer as much as might be expected from a career reliever. Much of his success can be attributed to his willingness to change his arsenal to maximize his strengths. With the A’s, he started to rely heavily on his cutter and it’s been a decent pitch for him. His other two fastballs are used to give batters different looks with good velocity and he’s able to generate a good amount of whiffs with his four-seamer. At this season has progressed, Chavez has slowly moved away from his curveball in favor of a slider. The last time he faced the Mariners, he struck out seven but gave up four runs on five hits and two walks.

RHP Kendall Graveman
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
70	14.6%		7.6%		11.9%		47.4%		3.47		4.47
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
91.5 mph; 6.8%		91.6 mph; 51.8%		86.5 mph; 13.7%		83.9 mph; 10.3%		86.4 mph; 10.0%		76.7 mph; 7.5%

Kendall Graveman was acquired by the A’s in the Josh Donaldson trade this offseason. He won his way into the A’s starting rotation with a very strong Spring Training—a 0.36 ERA in 25 1/3 spring innings was the best in the majors by far. The start of the regular season was not as stellar and he found himself in Triple-A after his fourth start. He was recalled towards the end of May and has produced a 2.01/3.75/3.82 pitcher slash line since then. He mainly relies on his sinker and will mix in a cutter and two types of breaking balls once in a while. He also throws a changeup to keep lefties in check.

RHP Sonny Gray
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
107 2/3	22.9%		6.1%		5.3%		54.2%		2.09		2.67
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
94.9 mph; 35.0%		94.3 mph; 26.2%		92.6 mph; 2.5%		88.2 mph; 3.3%		87.4 mph; 19.0%		83.1 mph; 14.1%

Sonny Gray established himself as a front line pitcher in his first full year in the majors last year. He’s been able to carry that success over into this year with a 2.09/2.67/3.30 pitcher slash line. His signature pitch is his curveball but he’s now throwing two versions of it: one is the familiar 12-6 curve that we’ve seen since he was first called up, the other is more of a slurve with a little more velocity. PITCHf/x is labeling it a slider but he says he uses the same grip for both pitches. The slider has been very effective for him and he’s using it against both lefties and righties alike. His last two starts have been a little rough, giving up nine runs over twelve innings. The last time he faced the Mariners, he was able to hold them to just one run while striking out nine but the Mariners were able to pull out a win on a LoMo walk-off homer.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	47-34	.580	-	L-W-W-W-W
Angels	41-38	.519	5.0	W-W-W-W-L
Rangers	40-39	.506	6.0	W-L-W-W-L
Mariners	36-42	.462	9.5	W-L-L-W-W
Athletics	36-45	.444	11.0	L-L-W-L-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Yankees	42-37	.532	+0.5	W-L-L-L-W
Twins	41-37	.526	-	W-L-L-W-L
Rays	42-38	.525	-	W-L-L-L-L
Blue Jays	42-38	.525	-	L-W-L-L-W
Angels	41-38	.519	0.5	W-W-W-W-L

The Astros have put together another little hot streak, winning four in a row including a sweep of the Royals; they’re in Boston this weekend. The Angels had their own four-game win streak snapped yesterday as they lost to the Yankees. They’ll face the Rangers for the rights to second place in the AL West this weekend. The Orioles have claimed the AL East lead after poor weeks from the Yankees and the Rays.