Series Preview: Mariners (41-48) at Yankees (48-40)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Friday, July 17	4:05 pm	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	Yankees	RHP Masahiro Tanaka
Saturday, July 18	10:05 am	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma	Yankees	RHP Michael Pineda
Sunday, July 19	10:05 am	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez	Yankees	LHP CC Sabathia

	Mariners	Yankees	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	92 (14th in AL)	106 (3rd in AL)	Yankees
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.9 (10th)	-26.5 (13th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	104 (8th)	93 (5th)	Yankees
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (9th)	85 (2nd)	Yankees

Baseball is back! After a surprisingly exciting Home Run Derby, a less than exciting All-Star Game, and two extra off days, the second half of the season gets underway. The last time these two teams met, the Mariners were in the midst of their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad homestand. The Yankees swept a three game series in Seattle which included a dud of a start from King Felix and a loss in extra innings.

Back at the start of June, the Yankees offense was still sputtering and they ranked just eighth in team wRC+. They’re now have the third ranked offense in the league. Much of that improvement was driven by excellent performances by Alex Rodriguez and Brett Gardner, but their entire team has hit better. Their pitching staff has continued to impress and is buoyed by their stellar bullpen. If the Yankees are leading by the seventh inning, you can basically end the game there—they have a 37-2 record when leading at that point in the game.

The Yankees:

With the rest of the AL East flopping into the All-Star break, the Yankees were able to build a three and a half game lead over the Rays. They won three straight series to finished the first half, including one against Tampa Bay, and were one of the hottest teams in the AL.

Key Players

DH Alex Rodriguez – He’s back with a vengeance. After missing most of 2013 and all of 2014, Alex Rodriguez has been one of the best hitters on the Yankees to start this year. He spent that year and a half getting his mind and body right and that work has paid dividends on the field. His 148 wRC+ ranks in the top-15 in all of baseball and his ISO of .237 is the highest it’s been since 2010. There isn’t a player who is more controversial than A-Rod but he’s doing his best to silence the naysayers this year.

1B Mark Teixeira – A myriad of injuries and age-related decline had taken their toll on Mark Teixeria but he’s doing everything he can to make up for that lost production this year. He’s posting power numbers that are the best of his career and he’s doing it all despite a BABIP that’s just above the Mendoza line! When you’re hitting a quarter of your fly balls out of the park and walking as much as he is, you have no use for balls in play. It’s been fun to see a "best shape of their life" narrative actually play out in front of our eyes.

LF Brett Gardner – Despite doubling his career high in homers last year, Brett Gardner’s power explosion looked like it was mostly a mirage. ESPN’s Home Run Tracker identified seven of his 17 home runs as "just enough," his ISO was just 20 points higher than 2013, and his average batted ball distance remained steady. Instead of falling back to his previously established norms, Gardner’s ISO has continued to rise. He’s enjoying the best offensive season of his career and he’s doing it despite a contact rate that’s the lowest of his career. His BABIP is a robust .363 but that isn’t too high for someone with his speed and his batted ball profile.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury – Jacoby Ellsbury lost about a month and a half to a knee injury this season. Before his injury, he was sporting a 126 wRC+ that was fueled by his ability to get on base. His power numbers are the lowest since his injury-plagued 2010 season and a knee injury won’t help him either. His elite speed could be affected by his injury as well. Until he gets his body right, the Yankees might be stuck with a leadoff batter who is left with a pretty empty offensive profile.

2B Rob Refsnyder – Rob Refsnyder isn’t a key player because of his own performance this year—he has just two major league games under his belt. No, he’s a key player because he can’t be any worse than the second basemen the Yankees have trotted out during the first half of the season. Stephen Drew has looked completely lost at the plate and Gregorio Petit and Jose Pirela aren’t names that inspire any confidence. At least Refsnyder was ranked the Yankees #7 prospect by FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel. His minor league numbers are very encouraging and he should be near league average offensively as a 24-year-old.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Masahiro Tanaka
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
67	24.9%		4.8%		15.4%		47.6%		3.63		3.60
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Splitter		Slider		Curveball
92.6 mph; 20.7%		91.7 mph; 15.6%		89.5 mph; 10.3%		88.0 mph; 24.5%		83.7 mph; 22.7%		76.8 mph; 6.2%

When he’s been on the mound, Masahiro Tanaka has pitched exactly as advertised. He commands six different pitches to generate a ton of strikeouts and poor contact. The problem has been his elbow—he’s been pitching through a partially torn UCL (the ligament infamously associated with Tommy John surgery). The ramifications of that injury are many but a loss of velocity is particularly evident. His results haven’t been affected by his injury very much but there are some warning signs beneath the surface. His whiff rates on his fastballs have dropped precipitously and his splitter is now his only pitch with an above average whiff rate. He’s still maintaining his incredible control and has continued to generate an above average amount of grounders which has helped him keep both his FIP and ERA low.

RHP Michael Pineda
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
106 1/3	25.2%	3.0%		10.9%	50.3%		3.64	2.64
Pitches
Cutter			Changeup			Slider
93.2 mph; 53.3%			88.5 mph; 12.8%			85.9 mph; 33.7%

This is the worst case scenario we might have envisioned when the Mariners traded Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero. Yes, Pineda has essentially lost two and a half years of his career due to injury, but since he was so young to begin with, this is his age-26 season. When he came up with the Mariners, he relied primarily on his fastball and his slider and developing a third pitch was essential to his future success. Well, he’s figured out how to throw a nasty changeup, giving him a weapon against lefties and a third pitch to keep batters off balance. He’s also vastly improved his command as his walk rate is the fourth lowest in the majors. The last time he faced the Mariners, he struck out nine over six innings while giving up two runs on seven hits.

LHP CC Sabathia
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
100 1/3	19.3%		4.6%	17.1%		43.5%	5.47		4.52
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
91.0 mph; 23.3%		90.2 mph; 31.5%			84.6 mph; 20.1%			79.7 mph; 24.1%

Three years of declining velocity has transformed CC Sabathia from a power pitcher with a 95 mph fastball to an average lefty with a 90 mph fastball. He’s started to change his arsenal accordingly too. This year, he’s throwing more sinkers than ever at the expense of his four-seam fastball. Even though he’s generating an above average amount of whiffs with the pitch, throwing it more has widened his platoon split to a ridiculous level—right-handed batters have a .397 (!) wOBA against him this year. The deterioration of his slider is also concerning. It’s more like a slurvy slider now and it’s lost all of its effectiveness.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	48-40	.545	-	W-L-W-L-W
Astros	49-42	.538	0.5	L-L-L-L-L
Rangers	42-46	.477	6.0	L-L-W-L-L
Mariners	41-48	.461	7.5	L-W-L-W-L
Athletics	41-50	.451	8.5	L-L-L-W-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	49-40	.551	+1.0	W-L-W-W-W
Astros	49-42	.538	-	L-L-L-L-L
Rays	46-45	.505	3.0	L-L-W-W-W
Orioles	44-44	.500	3.5	L-L-W-L-L
Tigers	44-44	.500	3.5	W-W-L-L-L

After leading the AL West for 88 days, the Astros find themselves half a game behind the Angels to start the second half of the season. The Astros hope to break their six-game losing streak against the Rangers. The Angels start off the second half by hosting the Red Sox for three games. The Twins have the second best record in the AL and lead the Wild Card race at the break. They travel to Oakland to face the A’s who are hoping for a little second half magic as well.