Series Preview: Mariners (25-32) at Indians (27-29)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Tuesday, June 9	4:10 pm	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias	Indians	RHP Corey Kluber
Wednesday, June 10	4:10 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijaun Walker	Indians	RHP Trevor Bauer
Thursday, June 11	9:10 am	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ	Indians	RHP Shaun Marcum

	Mariners	Indians	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	95 (12th in AL)	109 (2nd in AL)	Indians
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.4 (11th)	-18.0 (13th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	106 (9th)	87 (1st)	Indians
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (10th)	95 (7th)	Indians

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Mariners. They’ve played 20 straight games and in that time faced eight pitchers who have a top-20 FIP in the American League. If you’ve wondered why the Mariners’ offense has sputtered, it might be because they’ve faced the best of the best 40% of the time in the last three weeks. It doesn’t get any easier either. The Mariners are beginning a 16-game stretch without an off day and it starts with two more games against two of those top-20 pitchers.

The Indians:

Since winning three of four against the Mariners a week ago, the Indians have gone 3-3, winning a series against the Royals but losing two of three to the Orioles. They’re slowly making their way back into contention after a disastrous start to the year. The last time I previewed the Indians, the differential between their FIP and their ERA was a major focus. That differential is much lower now, regressing towards their ERA predictors, but it’s still the second highest in the majors.

Key Players

2B Jason Kipnis – After signing a lucrative $52 million contract extension last year, Jason Kipnis put up a stinker of a season, slashing just .240/.310/.330. A strained oblique definitely affected his production but he’s fully recovered this year. His regained health has allowed him to post a top 10 wRC+ this year and he’s second in baseball with 3.0 fWAR already.

LF Michael Brantley – Michael Brantley does not swing and miss. His whiff rate of 2.6% is the best in the league and would be the fifth best mark in the last five years. His name appears among players like Marco Scutaro, Juan Pierre, and Ben Revere—except Brantley isn’t a slap-hitter or a light-hitting speedster. His breakout year last year established a new level of production from him and he hasn’t slowed down this year. In fact, he’s hitting for more power while also walking at a career high rate. There isn’t another hitter in baseball like him and his ability to make quality contact is unparalleled.

1B Carlos Santana – Carlos Santana got off to a very slow start last year, possibly because of a defensive shift to third base. Once he was moved back to first, his production skyrocketed and he was one of the best hitters in the league over the second half of the season. This year, without a position change to worry about, his production hasn’t dropped off and he’s been a solid rock in the heart of the Indians’ lineup.

RF Brandon Moss – When the Athletics traded Brandon Moss to the Indians this offseason in exchange for organizational filler, many cited their concern over the health of his hip. Well he has answered any lingering questions about the health of his hip by slashing .245/.321/.478 and launching 10 home runs. Over the last two years, Moss has seen an interesting shift in his platoon splits. Earlier in his career, he was pigeonholed as a righty masher who had to be protected against lefties. Observe, his slash line against lefties since the start of 2014: .273/.384/.440 in 177 plate appearances. All of a sudden, it looks like Moss has figured out how to hit lefties and his wOBA has actually been higher against them than against righties this year.

SS Mike Aviles – A 34-year-old utility man, Mike Aviles is enjoying his most productive offensive season since his rookie year. He’s accomplished this by being more selective at the plate. He’s swinging less often, particularly on balls outside the zone, leading to more power and the lowest whiff rate of his career. He isn’t really making more contact at the plate but he has more than doubled his walk rate from a measly 3.5% to a more respectable 6.9%. With Jose Ramirez sent to the minors, Aviles will be the everyday shortstop until Francisco Lindor is ready for the majors.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Corey Kluber
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
84 2/3	30.6%		4.1%		9.4%	47.9%		3.61		2.23
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Slider
94.6 mph; 10.6%		94.1 mph; 39.0%		89.8 mph; 28.4%			86.1 mph; 4.4%		84.1 mph; 17.5%

When you look at that Pitch Arsenal graph, it’s readily apparent why Corey Kluber has developed into one of the best pitchers in the majors. Two of his pitches are off the charts! He’s generating an obscene amount of whiffs with his four-seam fastball and his cutter—both pitches are over two standard deviations above the league average whiff rate for each individual pitch. When a batter swings at one of his cutters, they miss it almost half the time! When Kluber won the Cy Young last year, Felix Hernandez had an excellent case to be made for why he should have won instead. But we shouldn’t sell Kluber short either.

RHP Trevor Bauer
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
70 1/3	24.2%		10.0%		7.3%	37.0%		2.94		3.52
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
93.4 mph; 45.0%		93.4 mph; 8.4%		85.7 mph; 13.4%			84.8 mph; 22.3%		78.5 mph 9.0%

Since being drafted third overall in 2011, Trevor Bauer has been a divisive prospect. He’s notorious for his extreme warmup routines and his wonky delivery and quickly wore out his welcome in Arizona. The Indians got to work on his mechanics, simplifying his delivery so that he could repeat his throwing motion easier. That’s allowed him to cut his walk rate under 10% while still maintaining his high strikeout rate. Bauer is also notorious for tinkering with his pitches and throwing a wide variety of them. At one point in his career, he was throwing a screwball but he’s only thrown four of them this year and it looks like he’s decided to shelve that pitch in favor of his slider.

RHP Shaun Marcum
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
26	23.6%		9.4%		22.6%	33.8%		5.19		5.85
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
86.3 mph; 36.1%		86.7 mph; 5.9%		84.2 mph; 30.7%			80.6 mph; 20.2%		72.8 mph; 7.2%

Injuries to T.J. House and Josh Tomlin and Zach McAllister’s transition to the bullpen has opened up a spot in the rotation for Shaun Marcum. He injured his shoulder in 2013 and missed most of 2014. Finally healthy, he’s bounced between Triple-A and the majors this year. At his peak, he was a soft-tossing, control artist who generated enough strikeouts to be effective. The biggest change to his arsenal is the lack of sliders. He’s completely abandoned the pitch and is now throwing his cutter more often—possibly because of his injury history. His best pitch is his changeup and he uses it to neutralize lefties leading to a small platoon split for his career.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	34-25	.576	-	L-L-L-L-L
Rangers	30-27	.526	3.0	L-W-W-W-L
Angels	28-29	.491	5.0	L-L-L-L-L
Mariners	25-32	.439	8.0	L-L-L-W-L
Athletics	23-36	.390	11.0	W-W-L-L-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	33-24	.579	+2.5	W-L-L-W-L
Rays	31-27	.534	-	W-W-W-L-W
Rangers	30-27	.526	0.5	L-W-W-W-L
Tigers	30-28	.517	1.0	L-L-L-W-W
Blue Jays	29-30	.492	2.5	W-W-W-W-W

Both the Astros and the Angels have lost five straight and the Rangers have been the only team in the AL West who has been able to take advantage of these losing streaks. Texas has been surprisingly good recently and they hope to continue their success in Oakland to start the week. The Astros are in Chicago facing the White Sox while the Angels begin a series against the Rays in Tampa today.