Series Preview: Mariners (24-29) vs. Rays (28-26)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Thursday, June 4	7:10 pm	Rays	RHP Erasmo Ramirez	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias
Friday, June 5	7:10 pm	Rays	RHP Jake Odorizzi	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ
Saturday, June 6	7:10 pm	Rays	RHP Alex Colome	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Sunday, June 7	1:10 pm	Rays	RHP Chris Archer	Mariners	TBD

	Mariners	Rays	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	96 (11th in AL)	103 (5th in AL)	Rays
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-18.5 (13th)	12.4 (3rd)	Rays
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	108 (11th)	92 (4th)	Rays
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (9th)	108 (13th)	Mariners

A week ago, the Mariners were wrapping up a three-game sweep of the Rays and were looking forward to a long homestand. In the seven games since that sweep, the Mariners have gone 1-6 and have looked very, very bad. Granted, they faced two very good pitching staffs, but the past week has reversed all of the work the Mariners accomplished to get back to .500.

The big news yesterday was the acquisition of Mark Trumbo and Vidal Nuno from the Arizona Diamondbacks. You can read Scott’s initial thoughts here and I’ll have a closer look at Nuno up later today. The response to this trade has been an emphatic, "meh." Trumbo obviously fits the offensive profile Jack Zduriencik absolutely adores and Nuno actually fits one of his preferred pitcher profiles as well. The Mariners haven’t officially announced the starter for Sunday—Mike Montgomery would be scheduled to pitch but we’ll see what the Mariners want to do with Nuno.

The Rays:

Since being swept by the Mariners, the Rays have gone 4-2, taking two of three against both the Orioles and the Angels. They’re tied for the second Wild Card spot and a game behind the Yankees in the AL East.

Key Players

3B Evan Longoria – Evan Longoria suffered through his worst year as a professional last year. The power was sapped from his bat, his plate discipline deteriorated, and his once elite defense was merely average. His plate discipline might have been the most concerning change. Last year, he expanded the strike zone by swinging at pitches outside the zone more often than ever. While that didn’t affect his strikeout rate or his contact rate much, he was making much softer contact leading to lower power numbers. This year, his plate discipline numbers have returned to his career norms and his walk rate has rebounded but his power hasn’t returned.

2B Logan Forsythe – After the Rays traded away Ben Zobrist, many assumed that there was no way they would be able to replace him. Well, it looks like the Rays have found their new Ben Zobrist. Logan Forsythe has seemingly come out of nowhere to post the highest fWAR total on the Rays this year. His 142 wRC+ ranks just outside the top 20 in baseball and he’s played three different positions for the Rays this year. He’s been able to find success by swinging at pitches outside the zone less often but making more contact on those that he does swing at. More contact has led to a lower whiff rate and a lower strikeout rate.

RF Steven Souza – If you play fantasy baseball, Steven Souza seemed to be everyone’s favorite sleeper this year. His skillset features the always intriguing power/speed combo and many of the projection systems liked what they saw. Still, he made his Major League debut at the advanced age of 25 and was bounced from the middle infield to the corner outfield during his minor league development. In his first full year in the Majors he hasn’t disappointed; he’s launched seven dingers and swiped seven bases putting him on pace to reach the vaunted 20-20 plateau. His biggest flaw his is poor contact rate which has led to the highest strikeout rate among qualified batters in the Majors.

SS Asdrubal Cabrera – Asdrubal Cabrera made a name for himself in Cleveland as an offensively minded shortstop. His best season was in 2011 and it’s been downhill from there. This year, his offensive prowess has disappeared—he’s striking out at the highest rate of his career and his power has gone missing. For most of his career, he’s been a very poor defender but all of his value this year is wrapped up in surprisingly above average glovework. It’s possible the Rays are positioning him more efficiently to gain the most out of his limited range, leading to better marks from the advanced defensive metrics.

CF Kevin Kiermaier – Over the last two years, Kevin Kiermaier has been one of the best defensive outfielders in the game—per DRS he’s saved 25 runs, and UZR thinks he’s been 26.9 runs above average. Those two marks place him in the top-10 among all outfielders in baseball. His bat hasn’t been too shabby either. A wRC+ of 119 last year helped him accumulate 4.0 fWAR in just 108 games. He probably won’t reach that offensive height again but he’ll hit for a decent amount of power while maintaining average strikeout and walk rates. For one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, a league average offensive profile is perfectly acceptable.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Erasmo Ramirez
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
42 1/3	20.3%		9.6%		11.8%	51.7%		5.53		4.20
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
91.7 mph; 29.5%		91.5 mph; 27.4%		81.3 mph; 30.2%			84.8 mph; 10.7%		79.5 mph; 2.2%

Our old friend Erasmo Ramirez has found a spot in the Rays injury-decimated rotation. During the offseason, I took a look at Ramirez’s pitch arsenal and found it surprisingly decent with his four-seam fastball and his changeup by far the best pitches. Since joining the Rays, he’s started throwing his changeup much more often and it’s only gotten better. Erasmo has seen a corresponding increase in strikeout rate and he’s actually inducing more grounders than ever before. Despite the improved underlying peripherals, he continues to have trouble giving up hard contact. His home run rate isn’t any better and his hard hit rate is the 22^nd-highest in baseball. He’s also been the victim of some bad luck as his strand rate is a very low 51.7%.

RHP Jake Odorizzi
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
72 1/3	20.3%		4.8%		6.2%	39.9%		2.61		3.04
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Splitter		Curveball
92.1 mph; 40.7%		91.4 mph; 4.2%		87.2 mph; 19.7%			85.3 mph; 31.8%		70.9 mph; 3.7%

After a breakout year last year, Jake Odorizzi is finding success in a very different way this year. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly but so has his walk rate. He’s also transformed his batted ball profile from an extreme fly baller (his ground ball rate was the second lowest in the Majors last year, ahead of only Chris Young) to something much more balanced. That transformation has helped him post the sixth highest FIP in baseball this year. Much of this change is the result of a very different pitch arsenal. Odorizzi decided to completely scrap his slider and is throwing his cutter much more often. He’s also throwing his splitter more often which one of the main reasons why he’s inducing more grounders. The Mariners scored one run off Odorizzi last week and were able to squeak by with the win after scoring a few more times off the Rays bullpen. He was knocked around by the Orioles in his last start, giving up 3 HRs and four runs in six innings.

RHP Alex Colome
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
35 2/3	17.5%		5.2%	18.4%		40.2%	5.05		4.91
Pitches
Four-seam		Changeup			Slider			Curveball
95.2 mph; 55.2%		86.2 mph; 11.6%			88.4 mph; 25.2%			79.2 mph; 7.0%

Alex Colome’s development process has been long but after seven years in the Rays’ minor league system, he finally has claimed a spot in the rotation. His lack of command has been the primary reason why he’s spent so long in the minors so it’s encouraging to see his walk rate so low this year. That low walk rate has come at the expense of some strikeouts but I think he’s satisfied with the exchange. He throws a fastball that can hit 97 mph and mixes in a decent changeup, a hard slider, and an occasional curveball. His changeup will be the key to staying in the rotation. Right now, it’s not good enough to keep lefties honest and his platoon splits reflect that. Alex Colome started the game that Kyle Seager single handedly won in Tampa Bay. He was fairly efficient in dispatching the Mariners but was blasted by the Angels in his last start.

RHP Chris Archer
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
76	32.7%		6.7%	10.2%		50.3%	2.01		2.28
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
96.2 mph; 46.2%		95.9 mph; 8.2%			86.9 mph; 7.8%			88.8 mph; 37.8%

Chris Archer has been one of my favorite, non-Mariner pitchers to watch over the last few years. This year, he’s taken his success to a whole new level and it all begins with his slider. He’s always had a good slider but it’s now one of the hardest sliders in the game; it has the sixth highest average velocity of all sliders that have been thrown at least 100 times. His whiff rate on that pitch hasn’t changed—it’s still elite—but the added velocity has changed his batted ball profile. He’s now one of the league leaders in groundball rate which just makes him that much more effective. He also isn’t afraid to use his slider against both righties and lefties giving him three elite pitches to throw to any batter. Chris Archer continued his run of domination after facing Felix last week—he struck out 15 Angels in 8 innings on Tuesday giving him 27 strikeouts over 16 innings in his last two starts.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	34-20	.630	-	W-L-W-W-W
Angels	28-26	.519	6.0	W-W-W-L-L
Rangers	27-26	.509	6.5	W-W-W-W-L
Mariners	24-29	.453	9.5	L-L-L-L-L
Athletics	22-33	.400	12.5	W-L-W-W-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	31-21	.596	+4.0	W-W-L-L-W
Tigers	28-26	.519	-	L-L-L-L-L
Angels	28-26	.519	-	W-W-W-L-L
Rays	28-26	.519	-	W-W-L-W-W
Rangers	27-26	.509	1.0	W-W-W-W-L

It’s some rotten luck that as soon as the Mariners lose six of their last seven games, every other AL West team goes on a hot streak. The Astros have won three straight against the Orioles and wrap up that series today; they face the Blue Jays over the weekend. The Angels are off today after their series loss to the Rays and travel to New York to take on the Yankees over the weekend. The Rangers finish their series against the White Sox today and then travel to Kansas City. After racing out of the gate with one of the best records over the first month and a half of play, the Tigers are now in free-fall mode and have lost six straight.