Editor's note: Jake is away so while much of this work is his it has been amended and collated by Meg. They are both fantastic and have now been acknowledged. To the preview!

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Tuesday, June 30	7:10 pm	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	Padres	RHP Ian Kennedy
Wednesday, July 1	12:40 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker	Padres	RHP James Shields

	Mariners	Padres	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	88 (14th in AL)	96 (11th in NL)	Padres
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.6 (11th)	-17.8 (15th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	103 (8th)	107 (9th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	102 (9th)	99 (5th)	Padres

The Mariners wrap up their annual home-and-home rivalry with the Padres with a two-game series in San Diego. They will face the same two starters that they faced when the Padres visited Seattle at the beginning of May. Taijuan Walker will face the Padres again as Lloyd McClendon flips him and Roenis Elias to avoid throwing two lefties in a row against the Padres.

All the work the Padres performed on their roster during the offseason has seen very little fulfillment. Their season has been about as disappointing as the Mariners' season has been. Their run differential is just 10^th in the National League and it's been their pitching staff that's been the main culprit. Their offense has been around league average but a rash of homer-itis has led to a pretty sizable difference between their team ERA and their team FIP.

The Padres:

The Padres currently sit in fourth place in the NL West, six and a half games behind the Dodgers. They recently were passed by the Arizona Diamondbacks after losing to them on Sunday and haven't been above .500 since June 8. They are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

Key Players

LF Justin Upton - Justin Upton was one of the big name acquisitions the Padres made this offseason. There was some concern that moving from Turner Field in Atlanta to PetCo Park in San Diego would seriously affect his offensive output in a contract year. He's responded to those concerns by posting the best wRC+ of his career. He's reduced his strikeout rate by three points and is hitting more fly balls than ever before, a rate closer to his breakout year in 2011.

RF Matt Kemp - Another big name acquisition this offseason, Matt Kemp hasn't exactly returned to his former self. He hasn't seen any of his power return and his walk rate has completely cratered. He has stolen seven bases in defiance of his arthritic hips. Defensively, he's been one of the worst outfielders in the Majors this year per both UZR and DRS. Considering his health history and the state of his hips, he should be a first baseman or designated hitter at this point in his career but the Padres keep sending him out to right field day after day.

CF Wil Myers - Wil Myers is currently on the disabled list after he had a bone spur removed from his left wrist. Will Venable has been playing center field in his absence.

C Derek Norris - Another offseason acquisition, Derek Norris has been one of the most valuable players on the Padres this year. Still, he's not playing up to the level he established over the last few years in Oakland. His walk rate is more than half of what it was last year and his line drive rate is at a career low. He is hitting for more power than ever before but that hasn't helped him offset his inability to get on base.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Ian Kennedy
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
69	22.0%		7.5%	21.7%		41.6%	5.09		5.18
Pitches
Four-seam		Cutter			Changeup			Curveball
92.2 mph; 62.4%		85.8 mph; 6.7%			84.4 mph; 14.9%			78.6 mph; 15.2%

Last year was a banner year for Ian Kennedy. He posted a career best, 24.5% strikeout rate and matched his career best, 6.1% walk rate. Much of that was due to a mechanical tweak that allowed him to add velocity to a number of his pitches. His 10% whiff rate ranked 22^nd in the Majors and we can see that ability born out in his individual pitch metrics. Kennedy gets an above average amount of whiffs with his fastball and his changeup. He mainly relies on his four-seam fastball, throwing it more than 60% of the time. His curveball gained three inches of vertical drop last year, possibly as a result of his new mechanics, and he threw it much more often as well. The Mariners were able to get to Kennedy the last time he faced them, scoring five runs on eight hits and three walks. He gave up two home runs, one to Kyle Seager and one to Logan Morrison, in a game where the Mariners launched six home runs total.

RHP James Shields
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
97 2/3	28.0%		7.5%		18.0%	42.6%		4.24		4.00
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
92.7 mph; 28.3%		92.0 mph; 9.7%		87.4 mph; 19.6%			85.7 mph; 19.3%		79.9 mph; 23.1%

James Shields was another big name piece the Padres acquired this offseason, signing him to a four-year, $75 million deal. He's returned the favor by posting the highest strikeout rate of his career and the eighth highest strikeout rate in the Majors this year. Despite all those strikeouts, Shields has been burned by the homer this year. Shields was once known for his devastating changeup but he's now throwing it at the lowest rate in his career. In its place, he's throwing his knuckle-curve much more often and it's helped him keep batters off-balance. As you can see, Shields is generating an incredible amount of whiffs with all of his pitches this year. All of those are career highs for each individual pitch. A much lower release point may explain the increase in effectiveness, particularly against right-handed batters. He struck out nine Mariners and only allowed a single run the last time he faced them.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	45-34	.570	-	W-L-L-W-W
Angels	40-37	.519	4	W-L-W-W-W
Rangers	39-38	.506	5	L-L-W-L-W
Mariners	34-42	.447	9.5	W-L-W-L-L
Athletics	35-44	.443	10	W-L-L-L-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Orioles	41-35	.539	+0.5	W-W-W-W-L
Rays	42-36	.538	+0.5	W-W-L-W-L
Yankees	41-36	.532	-	L-W-W-L-L
Twins	40-36	.526	0.5	W-L-W-L-L
Blue Jays	41-37	.526	0.5	W-W-L-W-L

With the Mariners in timeout off yesterday, the rest of the AL West took the opportunity to bank some wins. The Astros beat the Royals in game one of their series; they'll spend the 4^th in Boston and will presumably still be annoying there. The Rangers took game one of their four game series against the Orioles, but remain third in the West behind the Angels, who took the first of three against Yankees on the back of Mike Trout doing Trout things. The A's showed life against the Rockies last night; they play two more Rocky Mountain gambles before taking on Seager and Company. They remain behind the Mariners in the standings. But only just barely. Only. Just.