Series Preview: Mariners (33-40) at Angels (37-36)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Friday, June 26	7:05 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker	Angels	RHP Matt Shoemaker
Saturday, June 27	4:15 pm	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ	Angels	RHP Garrett Richards
Sunday, June 28	12:35 pm	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez	Angels	LHP Hector Santiago

	Mariners	Angels	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	88 (14th in AL)	95 (11th in AL)	Angels
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.0 (10th)	-1.3 (6th)	Angels
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	104 (8th)	110 (14th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	102 (9th)	83 (2nd)	Angels

After their first off day since June 8, the Mariners head out down the coast to face the Angels, the Padres, and the Athletics. Since that last day off, the Mariners have been stuck in the water, playing exactly .500 baseball. This team desperately needs a hot streak to get back into the race. Luckily, they’ve played much better on the road over the last few years.

The Angels haven’t fared much better this year. They’ve hovered around .500 for the entire season and haven’t built any momentum to move up in the standings. Still, a .500 team is well within striking distance of leading the Wild Card and they’re only five games behind the Astros. The Mariners and Angels have played six times already this year and the Angels have won four of those games. The last time these two teams met, back at the start of May, the Angels won two walk-off games in a row.

The Angels:

The Angels recently took two of three from the Astros last weekend despite being outscored 9-17. Their biggest storyline recently has been the resurgence of Albert Pujols. He’s leading the league in home runs and he’s sporting an incredible wRC+ of 240 in the month of June. He’s basically carrying the team on his back because they’re just 10-12 this month.

Key Players

CF Mike Trout – Mike Trout had what might have been his worst season as a major leaguer last year. He won the MVP award anyway. There’s no question that the Angels would look a lot worse without him in the lineup everyday. Trout is on pace for an 8.8 fWAR season and he’s continued to look like exactly the same player who has been the best in baseball for the last three years. He’s even cut his strikeout rate by three points, almost back to where it was for the first two years of his career. Other than that, he truly is the model of consistency.

1B Albert Pujols – I mentioned Pujols’ resurgence above but it bears repeating. He’s enjoying his highest offensive production since 2010 when he was still with the Cardinals. When he hits a fly ball, it leaves the yard almost a quarter of the time. And when he’s hitting almost half of his batted balls in the air, that leads to a ton of home runs. He isn’t selling out for power either. His strikeout rate is back under 10% and his walk rate has stabilized around 8%. It seems like he’s regained his hitting stroke after working through a number of injuries over the last few years.

2B Johnny Giavotella – Johnny Giavotella probably won’t be a decisive factor for the Angels this year. He will be replacing a player who averaged 3.4 fWAR over the last five years. He was able to win the starting gig this spring, kicking Josh Rutledge to Triple-A, and will look to build on a solid minor league track record. Giavotella has been one of the few bright spots on this team to start the year. He’s playing great defense at second while contributing a league average offensive line which makes him a valuable piece at a key position.

RF Kole Calhoun – Kole Calhoun accumulated 3.7 fWAR last year, making him one of the most valuable outfielders in the league. After a fast start to the season, he’s been mired in a prolonged slump for most of May and June. His power has almost completely disappeared during this slump and he’s just not making quality contact. His other peripherals are in line with his career norms which tells me he might be playing through an injury that’s affect his ability to drive the ball.

SS Erick Aybar – Last year, Erick Aybar posted his best fWAR total of his career. Much of that was due to elite defensive numbers per UZR. However, DRS thought he was just average defensively so his WAR total and his UZR numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Even if he’s just average defensively, a league average bat makes him an above average shortstop in this league.

LF Matt Joyce – Matt Joyce was acquired by the Angels this offseason to be inserted into their left field/designated hitter rotation. Since 2010, Joyce has quietly put up a wRC+ of 123 against right-handed pitching. He’s been heavily platooned during his career but that’s only increased his value. This year, he’s completely forgotten how to hit both righties and lefties. His BABIP is extremely low but he’s also sporting the lowest hard hit rate of his career.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Matt Shoemaker
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
72 2/3	21.6%		5.2%		15.3%	35.8%		5.20		4.71
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Splitter			Slider		Curveball
90.2 mph; 32.4%		89.9 mph; 21.3%		83.9 mph; 21.6%			81.5 mph; 15.5%		75.3 mph; 8.9%

After his breakout year last year, Matt Shoemaker has had a rough time repeating his success. All of his pitch arsenal scores are worse than they were last year. An early season oblique injury could explain the dip in velocity but his strikeout rate and walk rate fall in line with his rates from last year. Shoemaker has moved away from his sinker in favor of his four-seam fastball. That has led to a ground ball rate that ranks among the lowest in baseball. He’s also struggled to keep the ball in the park this year and his HR/9 is the highest in the AL.

RHP Garrett Richards
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
78 2/3	18.6%		9.6%	8.0%		53.9%	3.66		3.85
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Slider			Curveball
96.2 mph; 50.2%		96.3 mph; 12.7%			87.6 mph; 32.6%			79.2 mph; 4.5%

Garrett Richards had shown promise as a prospect and in limited time in the Majors so perhaps his breakout year last year shouldn’t be that much of a surprise. His incredible year last year was cut short by a nasty knee injury in August. He returned to the Angels ahead of schedule but his results haven’t returned to their otherworldly levels from last year. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball much more often, but despite that pitch’s above average whiff rate, he’s seen a drop in strikeout rate. He’s also seen a bump in walk rate. Even though his peripherals are trending the wrong way, Richards has continued to cause batters to generate weak contact against him—opposing batters have produced just a .098 ISO against him. As long as he’s avoiding hard contact, he should continue to find success.

LHP Hector Santiago
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
87 1/3	22.4%		8.5%		10.2%		28.8%		2.68		4.40
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
91.4 mph; 55.7%		90.3 mph; 2.1%		86.9 mph; 14.6%		83.6 mph; 16.1%		80.2 mph; 6.0%		75.6 mph; 5.5%

Hector Santiago has been able to outperform his FIP throughout his entire career—the difference between his career ERA and his career FIP is over one. An extreme fly ball profile has led to a dinger problem and he’s never had pinpoint control. He does just enough to prevent too many runs from scoring. This year, he’s been extremely lucky with a strand rate of almost 90% and a BABIP well below league average. That’s led to the largest difference in ERA and FIP among all starting pitchers in baseball. His ERA under 3 won’t last when his strand rate falls back towards league average and the hits start falling in.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	43-32	.573	-	W-L-W-L-W
Angels	37-36	.507	5.0	L-L-W-L-W
Rangers	37-36	.507	5.0	L-L-L-L-L
Athletics	34-41	.453	9.0	W-W-W-W-W
Mariners	33-40	.452	9.0	W-L-L-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	39-33	.542	+0.5	L-L-W-L-W
Yankees	39-34	.534	-	L-L-L-W-L
Orioles	38-34	.528	0.5	W-W-W-L-W
Blue Jays	39-35	.527	0.5	L-L-W-L-W
Tigers	37-36	.507	2.0	W-W-W-L-L

The Athletics have leap frogged the Mariners on the back of a five-game win streak. They’re the hottest team in the league right now and they host the Royals this weekend. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers have lost five straight and are now just a game over .500, tied with the Angels in second place in the West. They travel to Toronto this weekend to take on a Blue Jays squad that has cooled off after their ascent in mid-June. The Astros started a four-game series against the Yankees yesterday, shutting them out 4-0.