Series Preview: Mariners (32-38) vs. Royals (39-27)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, June 22	7:10 pm	Royals	RHP Joe Blanton	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Tuesday, June 23	7:10 pm	Royals	RHP Jeremy Guthrie	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery
Wednesday, June 24	7:10 pm	Royals	LHP Danny Duffy	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias

	Mariners	Royals	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	90 (13th in AL)	104 (5th in AL)	Royals
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-14.7 (11th)	31.0 (1st)	Royals
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	105 (10th)	110 (14th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	103 (9th)	83 (2nd)	Royals

The Mariners may have been able to salvage their season with a series win against the Astros but it still doesn’t get any easier. They’re at the end of a stretch of 36 games in 37 days, and after facing the division leading Astros twice and the World Champion Giants, the Mariners finish up this stretch with three games against the defending American League champions.

There is one glaring area of weakness on the Royals’ roster, their starting pitching. Their starting pitchers have the lowest collective strikeout rate in baseball and the third highest collective walk rate in the AL. That’s led to an ERA and a FIP that are both the third worst marks in the league. Despite this comically bad pitching staff, the Royals have the best record in the league and much of that success is due to the other three aspects of their roster. The best defense in baseball mitigates some of the struggles of their rotation and their excellent bullpen allows them to maintain leads when their above average offense is able to score enough runs. They’re trying their hardest to show that last year wasn’t a fluke and, so far, they’re accomplishing that task.

The Royals:

Like I mentioned above, the Royals have the best record in the American League. They’re first in the AL Central, 3.5 games ahead of the Twins. After a very good start to the year in April, an average May and June have brought them closer to the pack. They just lost two of three to the Red Sox at home but swept the Brewers in four games before that.

Key Players

CF Lorenzo Cain – Lorenzo Cain is a late bloomer in the majors; he had played baseball for just two years before being drafted out of high school by the Brewers. His raw talent had always been apparent but it wasn’t until last year that he would put everything together. He’s an elite defender in center field and much of his value last year was derived from a UZR of 9.0 at a premium defensive position. Offensively, his success has been much slower to develop. Last year, his BABIP was an extremely high .380 but he’s shown that his offensive success wasn’t a fluke with an even better offensive line this year. He’s striking out less often, putting the bat on the ball more often, and is hitting the ball harder than ever before.

3B Mike Moustakas – After four years of disappointment, Mike Moustakas is finally showing why he was considered a top prospect for the Royals for so many years. It really comes down to one number: his wOBA on balls hit to the opposite field is .442 this year. It had been around .190 entering this year and his success on just 68 balls hit to left this year has raised his career oppo wOBA by 40 points. He’s also been able to cut his strikeout rate for the third consecutive season to just over 10%.

1B Eric Hosmer – After an excellent showing in the postseason last year, Eric Hosmer has built upon that success to post 2.0 fWAR through two and a half months and is on pace to have the most valuable season of his young career. For Hosmer, it all comes down to pitch recognition and selectivity at the plate. He’s swinging less often, making less contact, and whiffing more often but his line drive rate is higher than ever and his walk rate has increased to almost 10%. His BABIP is much higher than his career rate but it matches his BABIP from 2013 when his line drive rate was 22%.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Joe Blanton
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
20	21.0%		3.7%		5.6%	52.5%		1.80		2.50
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
92.0 mph; 28.8%		91.9 mph; 24.2%		85.9 mph; 15.9%			85.3 mph; 23.8%		78.7 mph; 7.0%

It says a lot about the state of the Royals’ starting rotation that a pitcher who had retired from baseball last year will be starting the first game of this series. After ten innings in Triple-A last year, Joe Blanton called it quits. He decided to attempt a comeback this year and signed a minor league contract with the Royals. He’s made eight relief appearances and Monday will be his second start of the year. His previous start came against the hapless Brewers and his overall numbers have been bolstered by his time as a reliever.

RHP Jeremy Guthrie
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
71 1/3	10.6%		6.4%		11.6%	36.0%		5.55		5.19
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
92.7 mph; 32.4%		92.1 mph; 20.1%		88.4 mph; 15.7%			85.6 mph; 18.5%		78.3 mph; 13.4%

Jeremy Guthrie is a perfect example of a back-end, innings-eater. He’s thrown over 200 innings in five of the last six years and his total innings over that same period is the 13^th most in baseball. He doesn’t strikeout many, he doesn’t give up many walks, and his fly ball profile is benefitted by the best defensive outfield in baseball. He’s moved away from a mediocre slider in favor of a cutter. His best pitches are his fastballs but declining velocity has robbed them of their limited effectiveness. He’ll also mix in a changeup and a curveball but neither pitch is very useful.

LHP Danny Duffy
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
38 1/3	16.9%		10.7%		9.1%	37.1%		5.87		4.54
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
95.0 mph; 45.5%		94.3 mph; 16.1%		85.7 mph; 12.2%			81.8 mph; 24.2%		76.8 mph; 2.1%

Danny Duffy’s promising career has been derailed by a plethora of injuries. He was healthy enough to be able to make 25 starts last year but he’s already lost about a month of time this year with a shoulder injury. He’ll be making his first start since May 16 when he comes off the disabled list on Wednesday. For someone with such a long injury history, you’d think they’d try to avoid any risk factors. Instead, Duffy has abandoned his curveball in favor of more sliders. He’s throwing that pitch almost a quarter of the time now and it’s been fairly effective. His fastball has lost a lot of effectiveness despite its high velocity. Opposing batters have a slash line of .387/.467/.548 against his fastballs and he’s not getting very many whiffs with the pitch.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	41-30	.577	-	W-W-L-L-W
Rangers	37-33	.529	3.5	W-L-W-L-L
Angels	35-35	.500	5.5	L-W-W-L-L
Mariners	32-38	.457	8.5	W-L-W-W-L
Athletics	31-41	.431	10.5	W-L-L-W-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Yankees	38-31	.551	+1.0	W-W-W-W-L
Twins	37-32	.536	-	W-W-W-L-L
Rangers	37-33	.529	0.5	W-L-W-L-L
Orioles	36-33	.522	1.0	W-L-L-W-W
Blue Jays	37-34	.521	1.0	W-W-W-L-L

The Twins continue to fall further towards their true talent level after losing two of three to the Cubs this weekend. The Athletics beat the Angels twice this weekend to bring LA back to .500. The Angels now have to face the Astros at home to start this week. The Athletics and Rangers are off today before facing each other in Texas for three games.