Series Preview: Mariners (30-37) vs. Astros (40-28)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Friday, June 19	7:10 pm	Astros	RHP Lance McCullers	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias
Saturday, June 20	7:10 pm	Astros	LHP Dallas Keuchel	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker
Sunday, June 21	1:10 pm	Astros	RHP Vincent Velasquez	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ

	Mariners	Astros	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	90 (13th in AL)	106 (3rd in AL)	Astros
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-14.4 (11th)	-12.0 (9th)	Astros
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	106 (10th)	97 (6th)	Astros
Bullpen (FIP-)	104 (10th)	80 (1st)	Astros

It’s surprising to realize that the Mariners have played .500 baseball since their last off day, going 5-5 since June 8. In those ten games, the Mariners run differential has been -20 thanks to four shutouts. Remember when every game the Mariners played was decided by three runs or less? That trend is quickly correcting itself.

Recently, the Astros have called up a number of their young prospects to reinforce their major league club. They’ve been able to contribute despite their age and inexperience but it’s also led to some very streaky play. The Astros started June with a seven-game losing streak, but after facing the Mariners at home, they’ve now reeled off five wins in a row. They’re now 9-8 this month.

The Astros:

The Mariners have won just two games against the Astros this year. Against all other opponents they’ve gone 28-29. The Astros come to town for the second time this year and the Mariners are just hoping to take advantage of a team that hasn’t been as good on the road. The Astros swept the Rockies in the four days since the Mariners faced them last.

Key Players

2B Jose Altuve – Jose Altuve rode a .360 BABIP to win the American League batting title last year. It wasn’t just luck that drove his success last year. He was able to cut his strikeout rate by 5 points, down to just 7.5%. Much of that was driven by his ability to make contact outside the strike zone—he had the third best O-Contact% in the Majors last year. Altuve was also successful on 86% of his steal attempts on his way to 56 stolen bases last year. That rate is way out of line with his career rate and should come back down to earth. Regression has come swiftly; Altuve’s strikeout rate has jumped back over 10% and his BABIP is a much more human .304. His status is up in the air for this series as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.

RF George Springer – In 78 games last year, George Springer showed why he was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. His .237 ISO and 11.3% walk rate showed an ability to hit for power with a patient approach at the plate. The only problem was his whiff rate was the third highest in baseball and his contact rate was the worst in baseball among batters with at least 300 plate appearances. He’s been able to cut his strikeout rate down to 26.3% and his contact rate is just fourth worst in the majors now. He’s walking more often which has offset some of the loss in power he’s suffered through in the early part of this season.

3B Luis Valbuena – Luis Valbuena was never a stand-out minor leaguer when he was in the Mariners’ farm system and was below replacement-level with the Indians. He didn’t put everything together until he was picked up by the Cubs. In Chicago, his plate discipline flourished as he learned how to take a walk. His above average power for an infielder allowed him to put together three seasons where he averaged 2.0 fWAR in part-time duty. He was traded to the Astros for Dexter Fowler and is now their starting third baseman. He’s already shown off his power this year but his walk rate is back down to pre-Chicago levels.

CF Jake Marisnick – As a prospect in the Marlins’ system, Jake Marisnick was always overshadowed by Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton. He was traded to the Astros last year and put together a very impressive start to the season. Marisnick came back down to earth in May and June and his plate discipline numbers are now more in-line with his career averages. His BABIP has regressed from its lofty heights and his power looks closer to his minor league average than the .241 ISO he was sporting in April.

1B Chris Carter – Chris Carter had a slow start to 2014 and he ended up blasting 37 homers by the end of the year. His strikeout rate is still within his career norms and his walk rate is as robust as ever. I guess he’s just a slow starter, and once the calendar turned over to May, he started looking like the Chris Carter who has averaged over 30 home runs over the last two years. His ISO is still below .200 but that should continue to go up as the days heat up.

DH Evan Gattis – After coming out of nowhere to hit over 20 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Evan Gattis is well on his way to matching those totals. Despite all that power, his overall offensive line has been brought down by a poor walk rate and a low BABIP—both marks are in the bottom 20 among all qualified batters in the majors—leading to a wRC+ of just 91. Combined with his positional adjustment for DHing, he’s been worth -0.1 fWAR so far this season.

SS Carlos Correa – If there was a blueprint for how a top prospect should make their major league debut, Carlos Correa has followed it to a T. He’s slugged three homers and swipped four bases in just 10 games and has already accumulated 0.9 fWAR. He’s flashing the leather at shortstop and is showing off all the skills that made him the Astros’ top prospect. Pitchers are eventually going to adjust to his weaknesses, but for now, he’s taking the league by storm.  

Probable Pitchers

RHP Lance McCullers
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
36	28.4%	7.1%		3.2%	47.7%		2.00	2.33
Pitches
Four-seam			Changeup			Curveball
95.5 mph; 51.7%			90.5 mph; 12.1%			85.3 mph; 35.7%

Lance McCullers throws gas. His fastball regularly sits in the mid-90s, his changeup has the second highest average velocity in the league, and he throws the hardest curveball in baseball. When he was first drafted, his limited repertoire looked like it was destined for the bullpen. His fastball and curveball are both plus pitches but his changeup needed some work. He’s made some adjustments to the pitch and was able to post a 0.62 ERA in 29 innings in Double-A before being called up. His changeup is now consistently above average and he’s been able to use it as a reliable third pitch. In his last start, he was able to hold the Mariners hitless despite giving up four walks in five innings.

LHP Dallas Keuchel
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
101 1/3	19.5%		6.7%		9.5%	64.2%		2.04		2.89
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Slider
90.5 mph; 7.8%		90.7 mph; 53.4%		87.1 mph; 7.9%			79.4 mph; 14.1%		80.4 mph; 16.8%

The emergence of Dallas Keuchel has helped the Astros accelerate their plan. He was never a highly touted prospect and his minor league career was unremarkable. Then, in late 2013, something clicked and he completely transformed himself. He was able to leverage pinpoint command of his sinker to generate an obscene amount of ground balls while avoiding walks and striking out an above average amount of batters. When all three main components of your FIP are well above average, the results should follow and we’ve certainly seen that over the last two seasons. This year, Keuchel is relying on his sinker even more and he’s throwing that pitch over half the time. Batters still haven’t figured out how to hit it and it’s continued to force batters to weakly knock the ball into the ground.

RHP Vincent Velasquez
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
9 2/3	28.6%	14.3%		7.7%	25.0%		4.66	3.83
Pitches
Four-seam			Changeup			Curveball
95.4 mph; 62.3%			86.9 mph; 13.6%			82.0 mph; 24.1%

Vincent Velasquez is another recent call up in a long line of prospects that Houston has accumulated over the years. He was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft but various injuries have slowed his ascent through the minors. He’s still just 23-years-old and started the year by dominating in Double-A. He made the jump straight from Corpus Christi and has made two starts in the majors. He mainly relies on a fastball with plus velocity and movement. His changeup is an above average offering as well that he uses to neutralize lefties. His third pitch is a looping curveball that has flashed some promise but he’s been prone to leave a few hangers in the middle of the zone.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	40-28	.588	-	W-W-W-W-W
Rangers	36-31	.537	3.5	L-W-W-W-L
Angels	34-33	.507	5.5	L-L-W-L-W
Mariners	30-37	.448	9.5	L-W-L-W-L
Athletics	29-40	.420	11.5	W-W-W-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	36-30	.545	-	W-L-L-W-W
Yankees	36-30	.545	-	W-L-L-W-W
Rangers	36-31	.537	0.5	L-W-W-W-L
Blue Jays	36-32	.529	1.0	W-L-L-W-W
Orioles	34-32	.515	2.0	L-W-W-W-L

The Blue Jays eleven-game win streak was finally halted by the Mets but it was enough to propel them into the Wild Card race. The Orioles have also played very well as of late and these two AL East foes face each other this weekend. The Rangers lost yesterday on a walk-off balk, allowing the Dodgers to avoid the sweep; they host the White Sox this weekend. The Athletics have looked much better recently and they’ll look to gain some ground on the Angels this weekend.