Series Preview: Mariners (28-35) at Giants (34-30)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, June 15	7:15 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker	Giants	RHP Tim Hudson
Tuesday, June 16	12:45 pm	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ	Giants	RHP Tim Lincecum
Wednesday, June 17	7:10 pm	Giants	LHP Madison Bumgarner	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Thursday, June 18	7:10 pm	Giants	RHP Ryan Vogelsong	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery

	Mariners	Giants	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	93 (12th in AL)	108 (2nd in NL)	Giants
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-16.1 (11th)	13.2 (9th)	Giants
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	108 (10th)	113 (12th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	104 (10th)	96 (13th)	Giants

It’s been feast or famine for the Mariners lately; in their past five games, the Mariners have won two games by a combined score of 17-4 but have been shut out in the other three games by a combined score of 29-0. It seems like whenever the Mariners give up more than four runs, the whole team completely shuts down. They'll continue their long stretch of games with a home-and-home series against the Giants.

The Giants have won three of the last five World Series and have become a model franchise for Major League Baseball. Long gone are the days where we could make fun of Brian Sabean for signing Barry Zito to a seven-year contract worth $126 million. Now, Sabean has developed a team that is full of homegrown stars supported by veteran role-players. This year, the Giants success has been driven by one of the best offenses in the National League. However, their pitching hasn’t performed to their usual lofty standards this year and much of that is due to injury and age. Sabean has proven he’s capable of developing position players, now he needs to retool his pitching staff if he wants to continue the Giants’ string of success. The only consolation for the Mariners is that it’s an odd year.

The Giants:

The Giants have gotten off to a decent start this year but they’ve scuffled a bit in June. A 4-8 record this month has pushed them out of the Wild Card lead and further back in the NL West. They’re currently second in their division and third in the NL Wild Card race. They’ve lost four straight, including a sweep by the Diamondbacks.

Key Players

C Buster Posey – Since his gruesome leg injury in 2011, all Buster Posey’s done since then is accumulate 20.3 fWAR—the fourth highest total in that time—and won one MVP award and three World Series rings. He’s the best offensive catcher in the game and his defense behind the plate is excellent. The Giants would not have won three World Series in five years without him behind the plate. This year, he’s cut his strikeout rate to under 10% and is walking more often. That’s the product of a much higher swing rate on pitches in the zone coupled with the highest contact rate of his career. When Posey sees a strike, he punishes it.

1B Brandon Belt – Despite a career offensive line that’s 27% better than league average, Belt has seen that success come in fits and starts. A few freak injuries have affected his ability to maximize his skills on the field. And he has prodigious skills when everything is going right; a high line drive rate, a patient approach at the plate, and massive power. This year, all of those skills are firing on all cylinders and it’s culminated in the highest wRC+ of his career. He does strikeout a bit too much but a line drive rate over 30% leading to a BABIP of .370 diminishes the effect of all those whiffs.

SS Brandon Crawford – Early in his career, many pegged Brandon Crawford as a glove-first shortstop who wouldn’t come close to being a league average batter. In defiance of that profile, Crawford has slowly developed his offensive abilities and this year he’s peaked with a 134 wRC+. Much of that is being driven by the power in his bat; his .200 ISO is the second highest among all shortstops in baseball. He’s also cut his strikeout rate below 20% and he’s sporting the highest hard hit rate of his career.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Tim Hudson
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
74 1/3	11.9%		5.8%		16.7%	56.3%		4.60		4.61
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Splitter		Curveball
89.3 mph; 13.9%		89.2 mph; 40.7%		83.2 mph; 25.5%			81.3 mph; 9.9%		76.0 mph; 10.0%

For the first time in nine years, Tim Hudson’s ERA is over 4.00 and his FIP is at a five year high. That speaks more to his longevity than to his overall effectiveness. On the brink of 40, Hudson secured his World Series victory last year with the Giants. Back for one more round, his skills have finally started to erode. His strikeout rate has fallen to a career low, though it was never very high to begin with. As recently as last year, he was able to generate an above average amount of whiffs with both his curveball and his splitter. Those once robust whiff rates have taken a dive and his arsenal has suffered. He’s still generating a ton of ground balls with the sinker, his bread and butter. Despite keeping the ball on the ground, he’s been hurt by the long ball this year.

RHP Tim Lincecum
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
67 2/3	19.0%		10.9%		8.6%	46.7%		3.33		4.08
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Splitter			Slider		Curveball
88.9 mph; 23.7%		88.2 mph; 24.1%		82.3 mph; 24.8%			79.5 mph; 15.4%		74.8 mph; 12.0%

When you win the Cy Young in the first two full years of your Major League career, there's nowhere to go but down. Like his velocity, Tim Lincecum’s career has been on a long, slow downward trend since his incredible sophomore and junior years. It would be easy to point to his decreasing velocity and assume that’s the only reason for his collapse. It’s certainly a contributing factor but he’s still generating a ton of whiffs with both of his fastballs despite a velocity that sits under 90 mph. Instead, it’s his breaking balls that have really forced him to change his arsenal. Both his slider and curveball were once plus pitches but they’re both merely average now with the slider being the worst offender. Opposing batters sport a .262 ISO off his slider this year and that’s indicative of his other problem: home runs. It’s not all doom and gloom, as his home-road splits make him out to be a completely competent pitcher at home—his FIP at home is almost three runs better than on the road.

LHP Madison Bumgarner
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
85 1/3	22.6%		4.6%		11.1%	41.2%		3.16		3.48
Pitches
Four-seam		Cutter		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
93.4 mph; 47.0%		87.5 mph; 28.8%		86.6 mph; 2.7%			88.4 mph; 3.3%		78.3 mph; 17.7%

Madison Bumgarner’s work load was a serious concern this offseason. Between the regular season and the postseason, he threw 270 innings last year with a total of 4074 pitches. History tells us that after such a heavy work load, we should expect some regression toward the mean. That’s what we’ve seen so far from Bumgarner. His strikeout rate has dropped three points and his pitches are getting hit harder than ever before. From the otherworldly heights of his World Series performance, this year looks a lot more human. Still, his ERA sits in the top 30 in all of baseball and his FIP isn’t far behind.

RHP Ryan Vogelsong
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
67 1/3	16.5%		9.8%		12.3%	41.5%		4.81		4.96
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
91.6 mph; 30.1%		91.2 mph; 18.5%		88.8 mph; 22.4%			83.8 mph; 8.2%		77.2 mph; 20.8%

Since returning from Japan in 2011, Ryan Vogelsong has been a league average pitcher who’s capably filled the back end of the Giants’ rotation. He doesn’t strikeout too many, he doesn’t walk too many, and his home park helps him mitigate his fly ball profile. He’s everything you want in a #4 or #5 starter in your rotation. This year, his home-road splits are even more pronounced; his FIP on the road is almost 6.00 and that’s seriously affected his overall numbers. It doesn’t help that all of his peripherals are trending the wrong way either.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	36-28	.563	-	L-L-W-L-W
Rangers	33-30	.524	2.5	L-L-W-W-L
Angels	32-31	.508	3.5	L-W-W-W-L
Mariners	28-35	.444	7.5	W-L-L-W-L
Athletics	26-39	.400	10.5	W-W-L-L-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	34-28	.548	-	L-L-L-L-W
Rays	35-29	.547	-	W-L-W-W-W
Blue Jays	34-30	.531	1.0	W-W-W-W-W
Tigers	33-30	.524	1.5	W-L-W-L-W
Rangers	33-30	.524	1.5	L-L-W-W-L

The Twins managed to salvage their series against the resurgent Rangers with a dramatic win last night. By virtue of poor play by the rest of the AL West, the Rangers find themselves in second place in the division and just a game and a half back in the Wild Card race. They host the Dodgers to start this week. The Angels have settled in around .500 and are playing well enough to stick around the race; they host the Diamondbacks to start this week. The Astros face the Rockies and the A’s travel to San Diego. With their three-game sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays continued their eleven-game winning streak and now have the best run differential in baseball; the Mets are their next victims.