Series Preview: Mariners (27-33) at Astros (34-27)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Friday, June 12	5:10 pm	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez	Astros	LHP Brett Oberholtzer
Saturday, June 13	1:10 pm	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	Astros	RHP Collin McHugh
Sunday, June 14	11:10 am	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias	Astros	RHP Lance McCullers

	Mariners	Astros	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	95 (12th in AL)	99 (7th in AL)	Astros
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.8 (11th)	-13.7 (9th)	Astros
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	106 (10th)	96 (6th)	Astros
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (10th)	84 (2nd)	Astros

The Mariners have had a .555 win percentage on the road since the beginning of 2014. That strength on the road is one of the major reasons why they were so successful last year and it’s helped them compensate for a pretty terrible home record this year. The last time the Mariners visited Houston was during the Astros’ 10-game winning streak at the beginning of May. The Mariners and Astros play each other six times in the next ten games; this stretch will go a long way towards determining the Mariners’ fate.

Surprisingly, the Astros success this year has been driven by their pitching staff. Their offense is fairly average as the second-highest team ISO in the AL is offset by the highest strikeout rate in the league. Their pitching staff has been one of the best run prevention units in the league and it’s been their bullpen that has led the way. They don’t strikeout as many batters as some of the other elite pitching staffs but they avoid the walk and their collective ground ball rate is third highest in the league.

The Astros:

The Astros have not had a good start to the month of June. They started out the month with three wins against the Orioles but have lost seven straight since then, including sweeps by the Blue Jays and the White Sox. In that time, they’ve seen their division lead reduced to 2.5 games and they no longer have the best record in the AL.

Key Players

2B Jose Altuve – Jose Altuve rode a .360 BABIP to win the American League batting title last year. It wasn’t just luck that drove his success last year. He was able to cut his strikeout rate by 5 points, down to just 7.5%. Much of that was driven by his ability to make contact outside the strike zone—he had the third best O-Contact% in the Majors last year. Altuve was also successful on 86% of his steal attempts on his way to 56 stolen bases last year. That rate is way out of line with his career rate and should come back down to earth. Regression has come swiftly; Altuve’s strikeout rate has jumped back over 10% and his BABIP is a much more human .304.

SS Jed Lowrie – Lowrie was placed on the disabled list with a strained thumb back in April and he’ll be out until after the All-Star break. Despite being out for almost a month and a half, he still has the third highest fWAR among the Astros’ position players.

RF George Springer – In 78 games last year, George Springer showed why he was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. His .237 ISO and 11.3% walk rate showed an ability to hit for power with a patient approach at the plate. The only problem was his whiff rate was the third highest in baseball and his contact rate was the worst in baseball among batters with at least 300 plate appearances. He’s been able to cut his strikeout rate down to 26.3% and his contact rate is just fourth worst in the majors now. He’s walking more often which has offset some of the loss in power he’s suffered through in the early part of this season.

3B Luis Valbuena – Luis Valbuena was never a stand-out minor leaguer when he was in the Mariners’ farm system and was below replacement-level with the Indians. He didn’t put everything together until he was picked up by the Cubs. In Chicago, his plate discipline flourished as he learned how to take a walk. His above average power for an infielder allowed him to put together three seasons where he averaged 2.0 fWAR in part-time duty. He was traded to the Astros for Dexter Fowler and is now their starting third baseman. He’s already shown off his power this year but his walk rate is back down to pre-Chicago levels.

CF Jake Marisnick – As a prospect in the Marlins’ system, Jake Marisnick was always overshadowed by Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton. He was traded to the Astros last year and put together a very impressive start to the season. Marisnick came back down to earth in May and June and his plate discipline numbers are now more in-line with his career averages. His BABIP has regressed from its lofty heights and his power looks closer to his minor league average than the .241 ISO he was sporting in April.

1B Chris Carter – Chris Carter had a slow start to 2014 and he ended up blasting 37 homers by the end of the year. His strikeout rate is still within his career norms and his walk rate is as robust as ever. I guess he’s just a slow starter, and once the calendar turned over to May, he started looking like the Chris Carter who has averaged over 30 home runs over the last two years. His ISO is still below .200 but that should continue to go up as the days heat up.

DH Evan Gattis – After coming out of nowhere to hit over 20 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Evan Gattis is well on his way to matching those totals. Despite all that power, his overall offensive line has been brought down by a poor walk rate and a low BABIP—both marks are in the bottom 20 among all qualified batters in the majors—leading to a wRC+ of just 94. Combined with his positional adjustment for DHing, he’s been worth -0.1 fWAR so far this season.

Probable Pitchers

LHP Brett Oberholtzer
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
12	13.8%		12.1%		0.0%	42.9%		3.75		3.53
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changup			Slider		Curveball
89.9 mph; 39.9%		89.6 mph; 13.9%		80.5 mph; 20.2%			83.9 mph; 14.8%		79.0 mph; 11.2%

Blisters on his throwing hand have derailed Brett Oberholtzer’s year. He’s made just three starts and has been placed on the disabled list twice due to the recurring blister problem. This is his third year in the majors and he’s established himself as a lefty control artist who is reminiscent of Jason Vargas. Like Vargas, his best pitch is his changeup and he uses it to effectively neutralize right-handed batters. Unsurprisingly, he has run a reverse platoon split over his career. He’s the first lefty the Mariners have faced since June 2, but they would do well to keep their right-handed hitters on the bench. Fun fact: Brett Oberholtzer was drafted by the Mariners in the 47^th round of the 2007 draft but didn’t sign.

RHP Collin McHugh
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
76 2/3	19.1%		4.4%	12.7%		46.1%	4.34		4.00
Pitches
Four-seam		Changeup			Slider			Curveball
91.6 mph; 29.9%		83.5 mph; 7.2%			87.7 mph; 39.5%			74.7 mph; 23.0%

While Dallas Keuchel has continued to impress this year, McHugh has taken a step back after an impressive breakout performance. His ERA is more than a run and half higher and his FIP is almost a run higher than last year. His strikeout rate has fallen below 20% and he’s fallen victim to the home run. He’s been able to cut his walk rate even lower and all of his other "luck" statistics look normal—we may just be seeing the league adjust to his arsenal. He uses two plus pitches, his fastball and his curveball. He’s able to generate a huge amount of whiffs with both pitches and he’ll use them against both righties and lefties. His slider usage is of note as well. Since August 1 of last year, McHugh has thrown his slider at a much higher rate, with more velocity, and he started using it against lefties more often.

RHP Lance McCullers
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
31	29.3%	4.9%		4.0%	48.7%		2.32	2.08
Pitches
Four-seam			Changeup			Curveball
95.6 mph; 50.9%			90.3 mph; 11.9%			85.3 mph; 36.6%

Lance McCullers throws gas. His fastball regularly sits in the mid-90s, his changeup has the second highest average velocity in the league, and he throws the hardest curveball in baseball. When he was first drafted, his limited repertoire looked like it was destined for the bullpen. His fastball and curveball are both plus pitches but his changeup needed some work. He’s made some adjustments to the pitch and was able to post a 0.62 ERA in 29 innings in Double-A before being called up. His changeup is now consistently above average and he’s been able to use it as a reliable third pitch. In five starts, he’s taken the majors by storm, posting excellent strikeout and walk rates and a FIP a hair over 2.00.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	34-27	.557	-	L-L-L-L-L
Rangers	31-29	.517	2.5	W-L-W-L-L
Angels	30-30	.500	3.5	L-L-W-L-W
Mariners	27-33	.450	6.5	W-L-W-W-L
Athletics	25-37	.403	9.5	L-L-L-W-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	33-26	.559	+2.0	L-W-L-L-L
Rays	32-29	.525	-	L-W-L-W-L
Tigers	31-29	.517	0.5	L-W-W-W-L
Rangers	31-29	.517	0.5	W-L-W-L-L
Blue Jays	31-30	.508	1.0	W-W-W-W-W

The Rangers and Athletics just finished a three game series with the A’s taking two of three. The reeling Twins travel to Texas to face the Rangers over the weekend while the Athletics travel to Anaheim to face the Angels. The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball right now, stringing eight wins together; they travel to Boston this weekend, hoping to keep their streak alive.