Series Preview: Mariners (24-26) vs. Yankees (26-25)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, June 1	7:10 pm	Yankees	RHP Michael Pineda	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Tuesday, June 2	7:10 pm	Yankees	LHP CC Sabathia	Mariners	TBD
Wednesday, June 3	12:40 pm	Yankees	RHP Masahiro Tanaka	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker

	Mariners	Yankees	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	96 (11th in AL)	100 (8th in AL)	Yankees
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-18.2 (13th)	-14.9 (12th)	Yankees
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	107 (11th)	93 (4th)	Yankees
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (10th)	81 (2nd)	Yankees

Over the past five games, the Mariners have faced four of the top-10 AL strikeout rate leaders—in those four games they have struck out 40 times against those starters. On Monday, they face their fifth top-10 AL strikeout rate leader in Michael Pineda. Combine that with the cross-country flight on Wednesday night and you get a real sense for how difficult this stretch has been for the Mariners. Tuesday’s starter hasn’t been officially announced yet but it is assumed that Mike Montgomery will be called up from Triple-A to make a spot start.

The shopping sprees the Yankees have been known for have slowed down the past few years. Yes, they handed out over $500 million to free agents in the 2013-2014 offseason but they "only" spent $100 million this past offseason. Despite all the money they’ve doled out, their offensive core is on the precipice of a steep decline—eight of their nine starters are on the wrong side of 30. Their pitching staff is in a bit better shape. Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, and Masahiro Tanaka are all 26 or younger and should form the core of their rotation for years to come. The Yankees may have a bullpen that is legitimately better than the Royals’ bullpen and it’s built upon just two relief aces: Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.

The Yankees:

Despite their strong pitching staff, the Yankees have been a bit unlucky over the first two months of the season. A strong start to the season has been undone by a 13-16 record in May. Over their last ten games, they’re 6-4 but that includes two series sweeps—they were swept by the Rangers and then they swept the Royals. They most recently lost three of four to the Athletics.

Key Players

DH Alex Rodriguez – He’s back with a vengeance. After missing most of 2013 and all of 2014, Alex Rodriguez has been one of the best hitters on the Yankees to start this year. He spent that year and a half getting his mind and body right and that work has paid dividends on the field. His 151 wRC+ ranks in the top-20 in all of baseball and his ISO of .263 is the highest it’s been since 2010. There isn’t a player who is more controversial than A-Rod but he’s doing his best to silence the naysayers this year.

1B Mark Teixeira – A myriad of injuries and age-related decline had taken their toll on Mark Teixeria but he’s doing everything he can to make up for that lost production this year. He’s posting career bests in ISO, strikeout rate, and walk rate and he’s doing it all despite a BABIP that’s under the Mendoza line! When you’re hitting a quarter of your fly balls out of the park and walking as much as he is, you have no use for balls in play. Obviously, a number of these peripherals are unsustainable but it’s been fun to see a "best shape of their life" narrative actually play out in front of our eyes.

LF Brett Gardner – Despite doubling his career high in homers last year, Brett Gardner’s power explosion was mostly a mirage. ESPN’s Home Run Tracker identified seven of his 17 home runs as "just enough," his ISO was just 20 points higher than 2013, and his average batted ball distance remained steady. The rest of his offensive profile is mostly unchanged. An above average career BABIP, speed on the basepaths, and a decent walk rate combine to make him a useful hitter near the top of the order.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Michael Pineda
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
64 1/3	25.4%	1.9%		10.9%	51.9%		3.36	2.52
Pitches
Four-seam			Changeup			Slider
92.6 mph; 53.0%			87.8 mph; 13.6%			85.0 mph; 32.9%

This is the worst case scenario we might have envisioned when the Mariners traded Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero. Yes, Pineda has essentially lost two and a half years of his career due to injury, but since he was so young to begin with, this is his age-26 season. When he came up with the Mariners, he relied primarily on his fastball and his slider and developing a third pitch was essential to his future success. Well, he’s figured out how to throw a nasty changeup, giving him a weapon against lefties and a third pitch to keep batters off balance. He’s also improved his command as he’s tied for the lowest walk rate in the Majors.

LHP CC Sabathia
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
60 1/3	19.6%		4.6%	15.4%		46.1%	5.67		4.22
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
90.8 mph; 25.4%		90.0 mph; 30.6%			84.3 mph; 19.3%			79.4 mph; 24.5%

Three years of declining velocity has transformed CC Sabathia from a power pitcher with a 95 mph fastball to an average lefty with a 90 mph fastball. He’s started to change his arsenal accordingly too. This year, he’s throwing more sinkers than ever at the expense of his four-seam fastball. Even though he’s generating an above average amount of whiffs with the pitch, throwing it more has widened his platoon split to a ridiculous level—right-handed batters have a .395 (!) wOBA against him this year. The deterioration of his slider is also concerning. It’s more like a slurvy slider now and it’s lost all of its effectiveness.

RHP Masahiro Tanaka
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
22 1/3	26.7%		7.8%		8.0%		37.9%		3.22		3.06
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Splitter		Slider		Curveball
91.4 mph; 20.4%		90.7 mph; 18.4%		88.8 mph; 12.0%		86.5 mph; 22.6%		82.5 mph; 21.5%		74.7 mph; 5.0%

When he’s been on the mound, Masahiro Tanaka has pitched exactly as advertised. He commands six different pitches to generate a ton of strikeouts and poor contact. The problem has been his elbow—this start against the Mariners will be his first since the end of April as he’s been resting and rehabbing a partially torn UCL (the ligament infamously associated with Tommy John surgery). The ramifications of that injury are many but a loss of velocity is particularly evident. His results haven’t been affected by his injury very much. He’s still able to strikeout a ton of batters though he is allowing more walks and more fly balls.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	31-20	.608	-	W-L-L-W-L
Angels	27-24	.529	4.0	L-W-W-W-W
Rangers	26-25	.510	5.0	L-L-W-W-W
Mariners	24-26	.480	6.5	W-L-W-L-L
Athletics	20-33	.377	12.0	L-W-W-L-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Royals	29-19	.604	+3.0	L-L-L-W-L
Tigers	28-24	.538	-	W-L-L-L-L
Angels	27-24	.529	0.5	L-W-W-W-W
Yankees	26-25	.510	1.5	W-L-L-W-L
Rays	26-25	.510	1.5	L-L-L-W-W
Rangers	26-25	.510	1.5	L-L-W-W-W

The Astros have scuffled a bit lately, losing two series in a row. They lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend and begin a four-game series against the Orioles today. The Angels swept the Tigers over the weekend; they face the Rays at home to start the week. With the Tigers losing and the Royals faltering, the Twins find themselves alone atop the AL Central. The Rangers have enjoyed Josh Hamilton’s attempt to singlehandedly salvage their season; they won three of four against the Red Sox over the weekend and face the White Sox to start this week.