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RESULTS - Mariners 2015 predictions: A survey

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I asked some questions. Then you guys answered them. That's how surveys work. Here are your answers!

This is about how many people participated in this survey.
This is about how many people participated in this survey.
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

The results are in for the poll I posted on Sunday. Almost 3,000 different individuals took part in this survey, which is quite a lot of people. If we were a town in Montana, we'd qualify as one the ~26 biggest places. Wow! Kudos to this community for being involved and caring about our team and clicking on some buttons on the internet.

So what did y'all think?

Question 1: Which of the following players will get called up to the big-league club first?
(A) Chris Taylor (B) Dominic Leone (C) Roenis Elias (D) Joe Beimel Total
# of votes 662 771 915 373 2721
% of votes 24.3% 28.3% 33.6% 13.7% 100.0%

Andrew says: B, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says: B

This was a nice and easy question to start with because none of these guys seems like a terrible answer. I figured Beimel would be the long(est) shot, and it appears that most of you agreed with me. I picked Dominic Leone because 1) swapping a pitcher seems logistically easier than bring up Taylor and messing with the bench and 2) I figured one of the young relievers would be more likely to falter than Taijuan Walker. WE'LL SEE.

Question 2: How many opposite-field home runs will Kyle Seager hit in 2015?
(A) None (B) 1-2 (C) 3-4 (D) 5 or more Total
# of votes 37 496 1346 713 2592
% of votes 1.4% 19.1% 51.9% 27.5% 100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says:B

Last year Kyle Seager hit exactly zero opposite-field home runs. An overwhelming majority of you think that he'll improve upon this in '15. Kyle exhibiting some oppo-pop would be wonderful and could go a long way in helping the M's score an increased number of runs this season. Do it, Kyle!

Question 3: How many strikeouts will King Felix record in 2015?
(A) Less than 175 (B) 176-200 (C) 201-225 (D) 226 or more Total
# of votes 48 455 1606 470 2579
% of votes 1.9% 17.6% 62.3% 18.2% 100.0%

Andrew says: D, Matt says: C, David says: D, Anders says:B

Felix has averaged 208 strikeouts per season over his nine full seasons in MLB. This average has jumped to 228 per season over the last five years. He hasn't struck out fewer than 200 people since the 2008 season. I am surprised that more of you think he'll record 200 or fewer strikeouts as opposed to 226 or more. TIME WILL TELL.

Question 4: How many home runs will Nelson Cruz hit AT SAFECO FIELD in 2015?
(A) 7 or fewer (B) 8-11 (C) 12-15 (D) 16 or more Total
# of votes 63 828 1281 385 2557
% of votes 2.5% 32.4% 50.1% 15.1% 100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says:A

Here is a chart showing Nelson Cruz's home and away home runs from the past three seasons.

Season Home HR Road HR Home stadium HR park factor
2014 15 25 107 (7th out of 30 MLB stadiums)
2013 13 14 106 (9th)
2012 18 6 106 (9th)

*For reference, Safeco had a HR park factor of 98 in '14, which ranked as 18th in MLB.

We can see that, although he seems to have benefited from playing in home run-friendly stadiums the past few years, over the two most recent seasons he's actually hit more home runs on the road. People on this site have written about Cruz's "Safeco beating power" and I tend to agree, but I do sometimes worry that I (and many of you and maybe even the Mariners' brass) may still have been a bit bullish about Cruz's HR numbers in Seattle. Hopefully Cruz busts out his boomstick tonight.

Question 5: Which of these players will have the best first half (in terms of fWAR)?
(A) Logan Morrison (B) Dustin Ackley (C) Seth Smith (D) Nelson Cruz Total
# of votes 348 940 446 802 2536
% of votes 13.7% 37.1% 17.6% 31.6% 100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: A, David says: B, Anders says:D

After that first game a lot of us were probably kickin' ourselves for not picking Seth Smith. I do think that, as far as rate stats go, Smith has the potential to put up some pretty great numbers. But being part of a platoon will likely hold him back as far as counting stats (like WAR) are concerned. It's interesting to me that so many of you picked Ackley (who is a notoriously slow starter) and Cruz (who will suffer a dramatic DH penalty in terms of his WAR) to put up bigger WARs. Maybe all of these guys can just tie for 3 WAR each during the first half? That'd be pretty okay.

Question 6: How many wins will Taijuan Walker record in 2015?
(A) 6 or fewer (B) 7-9 (C) 10-12 (D) 13 or more Total
# of votes 31 314 1395 799 2539
% of votes 1.2% 12.4% 54.9% 31.5% 100.0%

Andrew says: D, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says: C

In their history, the Mariners have had seven rookie starting pitchers win 10+ games. However, before Elias did it in '14, the last players to do so were Freddy Garcia and John Halama (!) back in 1999. It would appear as though most of us here on LL are expecting Taijuan walker to repeat this achievement.

Question 7: How many walks (BB and IBB, but not HBP) will Mike Zunino record in 2015?
(A) 15 or fewer (B) 16-22 (C) 23-28 (D) 29 or more Total
# of votes 287 997 762 383 2429
% of votes 11.8% 41.0% 31.4% 15.8% 100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: D, Anders says:C

Last season, Mike Zunino had a walk rate of 3.6% (17 BB in 476 PA), which qualified as the FOURTH LOWEST among the 171 ballplayers with 450+ plate appearances. (In limited time in 2013, Mike's walk rate was actually a better-than-league-average 8.3%.) Assuming he gets a comparable amount of playing time this season as he did in '14, getting walked 23 times would be equal to a walk rate of ~5%. I'm surprised that more than half of you don't think this will happen. Have faith in your backstop's ability to learn and evolve as a player! It's also good to remember that Mike turned 24 less than three weeks ago.

Question 8: Who will start the most games at shortstop for the Mariners IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER?
(A) Brad Miller (B) Chris Taylor (C) Willie Bloomquist :( (D) Ketel Marte Total
# of votes 1846 532 15 27 2420
% of votes 76.3% 22.0% 0.6% 1.1% 100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: A, David says: A, Anders says:B

The Team Chris contingent seems to have shrunk in size recently. I'm not sure if this is due to Miller's perceived success in Spring Training/late last year or if it's more an artifact of Chris Taylor getting hurt or what... In any case, it sure is nice to have two fellas that seem like they could be competent shortstops at the MLB level. Remember when Josh Wilson started almost 100 games at short for the M's in 2010? Also, shame on those 15 people for picking Willie.

Question 9: How many games will your Seattle Mariners win in 2015?
(A) 77 or fewer (B) 78-84 (C) 85-90 (D) 91 or more Total
# of votes 9 91 1077 1252 2429
% of votes 0.4% 3.7% 44.3% 51.5% 100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: C, David says: D, Anders says: D

This chart is so much different this year than it would've been at any time over the last 10 seasons. The Mariners should be pretty good this year and most of us (finally) aren't afraid to let ourselves believe. MORE THAN HALF OF LOOKOUT LANDING THINKS THAT THE MARINERS WILL WIN AT LEAST 91 GAMES. That's crazy. And wonderful. Hooray for optimism!

Question 10: Which of these images do you think will most accurately represent Brad Miller's haircut at the trade deadline?

(A) 1 (B) 2 (C) 3 (D) 4 :'( Total
# of votes 413 420 515 753 2101
% of votes 19.7% 20.0% 24.5% 35.8% 100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: D, David says: B, Anders says:B

I think the results for this question probably reflect a lot of people picking what they hope will happen as opposed to what they actually think will happen. Either way, I appreciate the appreciation for Brad's long hair.

- - -

In summary:
Question Andrew Matt David Anders LL community
1 B B C B C
2 C B C B C
3 D C D B C
4 C B C A C
5 A A B D B
6 D B C C C
7 C B D C B
8 A A A B A
9 C C D D D
10 A D B B D

Bold lettering indicates author's pick matches community's pick.

David, who y'all met last night, shares the most answers with you Lookout Landers (seven!). He is obviously a man of the people. Meanwhile, Anders agrees with the community on only two of the questions. That weirdo has such a beautiful and free spirit. Feel free to check back as the season progresses to find out who's Nostradamus and who's Notsomuchstradamus.

Go M's!