RESULTS - Mariners 2015 predictions: A survey

The results are in for the poll I posted on Sunday. Almost 3,000 different individuals took part in this survey, which is quite a lot of people. If we were a town in Montana, we'd qualify as one the ~26 biggest places. Wow! Kudos to this community for being involved and caring about our team and clicking on some buttons on the internet.

So what did y'all think?

Question 1: Which of the following players will get called up to the big-league club first?

Q1	(A) Chris Taylor	(B) Dominic Leone	(C) Roenis Elias	(D) Joe Beimel	Total
# of votes	662	771	915	373	2721
% of votes	24.3%	28.3%	33.6%	13.7%	100.0%

Andrew says: B, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says: B

This was a nice and easy question to start with because none of these guys seems like a terrible answer. I figured Beimel would be the long(est) shot, and it appears that most of you agreed with me. I picked Dominic Leone because 1) swapping a pitcher seems logistically easier than bring up Taylor and messing with the bench and 2) I figured one of the young relievers would be more likely to falter than Taijuan Walker. WE'LL SEE.

Question 2: How many opposite-field home runs will Kyle Seager hit in 2015?

Q2	(A) None	(B) 1-2	(C) 3-4	(D) 5 or more	Total
# of votes	37	496	1346	713	2592
% of votes	1.4%	19.1%	51.9%	27.5%	100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says:B

Last year Kyle Seager hit exactly zero opposite-field home runs. An overwhelming majority of you think that he'll improve upon this in '15. Kyle exhibiting some oppo-pop would be wonderful and could go a long way in helping the M's score an increased number of runs this season. Do it, Kyle!

Question 3: How many strikeouts will King Felix record in 2015?

Q3	(A) Less than 175	(B) 176-200	(C) 201-225	(D) 226 or more	Total
# of votes	48	455	1606	470	2579
% of votes	1.9%	17.6%	62.3%	18.2%	100.0%

Andrew says: D, Matt says: C, David says: D, Anders says:B

Felix has averaged 208 strikeouts per season over his nine full seasons in MLB. This average has jumped to 228 per season over the last five years. He hasn't struck out fewer than 200 people since the 2008 season. I am surprised that more of you think he'll record 200 or fewer strikeouts as opposed to 226 or more. TIME WILL TELL.

Question 4: How many home runs will Nelson Cruz hit AT SAFECO FIELD in 2015?

Q4	(A) 7 or fewer	(B) 8-11	(C) 12-15	(D) 16 or more	Total
# of votes	63	828	1281	385	2557
% of votes	2.5%	32.4%	50.1%	15.1%	100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says:A

Here is a chart showing Nelson Cruz's home and away home runs from the past three seasons.

Season	Home HR	Road HR	Home stadium HR park factor
2014	15	25	107 (7th out of 30 MLB stadiums)
2013	13	14	106 (9th)
2012	18	6	106 (9th)

*For reference, Safeco had a HR park factor of 98 in '14, which ranked as 18th in MLB.

We can see that, although he seems to have benefited from playing in home run-friendly stadiums the past few years, over the two most recent seasons he's actually hit more home runs on the road. People on this site have written about Cruz's "Safeco beating power" and I tend to agree, but I do sometimes worry that I (and many of you and maybe even the Mariners' brass) may still have been a bit bullish about Cruz's HR numbers in Seattle. Hopefully Cruz busts out his boomstick tonight.

Question 5: Which of these players will have the best first half (in terms of fWAR)?

Q5	(A) Logan Morrison	(B) Dustin Ackley	(C) Seth Smith	(D) Nelson Cruz	Total
# of votes	348	940	446	802	2536
% of votes	13.7%	37.1%	17.6%	31.6%	100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: A, David says: B, Anders says:D

After that first game a lot of us were probably kickin' ourselves for not picking Seth Smith. I do think that, as far as rate stats go, Smith has the potential to put up some pretty great numbers. But being part of a platoon will likely hold him back as far as counting stats (like WAR) are concerned. It's interesting to me that so many of you picked Ackley (who is a notoriously slow starter) and Cruz (who will suffer a dramatic DH penalty in terms of his WAR) to put up bigger WARs. Maybe all of these guys can just tie for 3 WAR each during the first half? That'd be pretty okay.

Question 6: How many wins will Taijuan Walker record in 2015?

Q6	(A) 6 or fewer	(B) 7-9	(C) 10-12	(D) 13 or more	Total
# of votes	31	314	1395	799	2539
% of votes	1.2%	12.4%	54.9%	31.5%	100.0%

Andrew says: D, Matt says: B, David says: C, Anders says: C

In their history, the Mariners have had seven rookie starting pitchers win 10+ games. However, before Elias did it in '14, the last players to do so were Freddy Garcia and John Halama (!) back in 1999. It would appear as though most of us here on LL are expecting Taijuan walker to repeat this achievement.

Question 7: How many walks (BB and IBB, but not HBP) will Mike Zunino record in 2015?

Q7	(A) 15 or fewer	(B) 16-22	(C) 23-28	(D) 29 or more	Total
# of votes	287	997	762	383	2429
% of votes	11.8%	41.0%	31.4%	15.8%	100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: B, David says: D, Anders says:C

Last season, Mike Zunino had a walk rate of 3.6% (17 BB in 476 PA), which qualified as the FOURTH LOWEST among the 171 ballplayers with 450+ plate appearances. (In limited time in 2013, Mike's walk rate was actually a better-than-league-average 8.3%.) Assuming he gets a comparable amount of playing time this season as he did in '14, getting walked 23 times would be equal to a walk rate of ~5%. I'm surprised that more than half of you don't think this will happen. Have faith in your backstop's ability to learn and evolve as a player! It's also good to remember that Mike turned 24 less than three weeks ago.

Question 8: Who will start the most games at shortstop for the Mariners IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER?

Q8	(A) Brad Miller	(B) Chris Taylor	(C) Willie Bloomquist :(	(D) Ketel Marte	Total
# of votes	1846	532	15	27	2420
% of votes	76.3%	22.0%	0.6%	1.1%	100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: A, David says: A, Anders says:B

The Team Chris contingent seems to have shrunk in size recently. I'm not sure if this is due to Miller's perceived success in Spring Training/late last year or if it's more an artifact of Chris Taylor getting hurt or what... In any case, it sure is nice to have two fellas that seem like they could be competent shortstops at the MLB level. Remember when Josh Wilson started almost 100 games at short for the M's in 2010? Also, shame on those 15 people for picking Willie.

Question 9: How many games will your Seattle Mariners win in 2015?

Q9	(A) 77 or fewer	(B) 78-84	(C) 85-90	(D) 91 or more	Total
# of votes	9	91	1077	1252	2429
% of votes	0.4%	3.7%	44.3%	51.5%	100.0%

Andrew says: C, Matt says: C, David says: D, Anders says: D

This chart is so much different this year than it would've been at any time over the last 10 seasons. The Mariners should be pretty good this year and most of us (finally) aren't afraid to let ourselves believe. MORE THAN HALF OF LOOKOUT LANDING THINKS THAT THE MARINERS WILL WIN AT LEAST 91 GAMES. That's crazy. And wonderful. Hooray for optimism!

Question 10: Which of these images do you think will most accurately represent Brad Miller's haircut at the trade deadline?

Q10	(A) 1	(B) 2	(C) 3	(D) 4 :'(	Total
# of votes	413	420	515	753	2101
% of votes	19.7%	20.0%	24.5%	35.8%	100.0%

Andrew says: A, Matt says: D, David says: B, Anders says:B

I think the results for this question probably reflect a lot of people picking what they hope will happen as opposed to what they actually think will happen. Either way, I appreciate the appreciation for Brad's long hair.

- - -

In summary:

Question	Andrew	Matt	David	Anders	LL community
1	B	B	C	B	C
2	C	B	C	B	C
3	D	C	D	B	C
4	C	B	C	A	C
5	A	A	B	D	B
6	D	B	C	C	C
7	C	B	D	C	B
8	A	A	A	B	A
9	C	C	D	D	D
10	A	D	B	B	D

Bold lettering indicates author's pick matches community's pick.

David, who y'all met last night, shares the most answers with you Lookout Landers (seven!). He is obviously a man of the people. Meanwhile, Anders agrees with the community on only two of the questions. That weirdo has such a beautiful and free spirit. Feel free to check back as the season progresses to find out who's Nostradamus and who's Notsomuchstradamus.

Go M's!