FanPost

The stretch run schedule: AL Wild Card edition.

I've done similar things to this in the past looking at the M's schedule. This time I was curious to see what the rest of the season looked like for a few of our playoff rivals as well, to see what might be ahead.

A few notes: I didn't look at the AL East - Baltimore (73-55) has a six game lead on the Yankees (67-61) who are 3.5 back of us and shouldn't be a factor. I've used Fangraphs for projections for the rest of the way. All five teams below have 33 games remaining.


SEA - 71-58 (33 games left)
Last 10: 7-3

Schedule:
TEX 3
WAS 3
OAK 3
TEX 4 (7)
HOU 3
OAK 3 (6)
LAA 4
HOU 3 (6)
TOR 4
LAA 3 (7)

We're projected to finish 89-73 (18-15 over the last 33), finishing in the second wild card spot. I can see this; we've got 13 games left against the two Texas teams and four against a flagging Toronto. The rest of the games will be tough though: Washington has the best record projected to finish the season (19-14), and Oakland (18-15) and the Angels (17-16) are right behind them. Please make lots of starts against them, Felix and Kuma. We've really got to do damage against the also-ran teams (17 games) and hold our own against the contenders (16 games).



Det - 70-59 (1 game back, 33 games left)
Last 10: 5-5

Schedule:
NYY 3
CWS 4
CLE 4
SF 3
KC 3
CLE 3 (7)
MIN 3
KC 3 (6)
CWS 3 (7)
MIN 3 (6)

Detroit are projected to finish 88-74 (18-15), tied with the Royals for the ALC division. That would be awesome because it would mean they'd essentially have to play their own wild card game (163), loser goes home. At least I think that's how it works. Their projections may be a little high given they project Verlander for 33 IP/0.5 WAR, and Sanchez for another 19 IP/0.4 WAR and he's still on the DL. That said, they also have a much easier run than us, only six games against KC and 3 vs SF against contenders, and SF have a worse record than they do, against 24 games against non-contenders.

KC - 72-57 (ALC division, 1 game ahead)
Last 10: 7-3

Schedule:
MIN 3
CLE 3
TEX 3
NYY 3
DET 3
BOS 4
CWS 3
DET 3 (6)
CLE 3 (6)
CWS 4 (7)

If you read the Detroit paragraph, you'll know the Royals are projected to finish 88-74 (16-17), tied with Detroit for the ALC division. They might actually have the softest schedule remaining, even if they've got the worst projection - the only contender they have is Detroit for six games. I'm not sure what to make of that. Either way if the projections ring true, they're playing Detroit in game 163 for the ALC division title.

OAK - 76-53 (1st wild card, 5 games ahead)
Last 10: 3-7

Schedule:
HOU 3
LAA 4
SEA 3
HOU 3 (6)
CWS 4
SEA 3 (6)
TEX 3
PHI 3
LAA 3 (7)
TEX 4 (7)

Oakland are projected to finish 94-68 (18-15), tied for the best record in baseball with the Nationals... and Angels. Now that would be awesome for us if we're in the second wild card spot, because that would mean OAK and LAA play game 163 to see who wins the division and who hosts us for the wild card game. This might actually be the best scenario for us especially if we can throw Felix or Kuma in that game. They've been struggling lately and have only gone 22-20 since they picked up Shark and Hammel, but I wouldn't count them out by a long shot. They've got seven vs the Angels and then six against us for 13 contender games against 20 also-rans. I don't think we're catching them but you never know.

LAA - 77-52 (ALW division, 6 games ahead)
Last 10: 7-3

Schedule:
MIA 3
OAK 4
HOU 2
MIN 4
CLE 1
TEX 3
HOU 3
SEA 4
TEX 3
OAK 3 (7)
SEA 3 (7)

Given the Angels are also projected to finish 94-68 (17-16) most of what I wrote about Oakland is the same for these guys. They've caught and passed Oakland but have lost their ace for the rest of the season in the process, and now project to have the worst rotation in baseball, per Jeff. They have 14 contender games left, split between us and Oakland, and 19 also-rans.

What I like:
The ALE to me seems out of it, and given how close both the Central and West races are and how many division games are left for all, we've got a really good shot that one of two things happens:
One contender smashes the other, knocking them out of contention
They split games against each other, giving us an opportunity to catch up

What I'd love to happen:
The projections would be dandy. I love the idea of having to face the loser of an ALW game 163 that may have already blown their best starting option/taxed their bullpen a little.

What scares me:
We have arguably the toughest schedule remaining, and no more opportunities to take games from KC/DET.

What is amazing:
We've already won as many games as we did last season.
We're projected to finish with 89 wins, a massive 18 win increase on last year. 89 wins would be the sixth best (projected) record behind only LAA/OAK/NAT (94 wins) and LAD/BAL (90).
The fact we're playing meaningful baseball and scoreboard watching, and it's almost September.
The fact we're in a playoff spot and it's almost September. YOU GUYS WE'RE IN A PLAYOFF SPOT AND IT'S ALMOST SEPTEMBER!!!

The best and most amazing (and ours and you can't have him):
Felix. <3



Even if we don't ultimately make it, this season has been nothing short of incredible to watch, and I can't wait to strap in for the rest of the season.

Go Ms!