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Super serious analysis: Fun with on-pace numbers

One month into the season and on-pace numbers bring perspective to some hilarious and exceptionally concerning results.

Otto Greule Jr

Today is the last day of April. The Mariners began their season on the last day of March. Using simple tools of mathematics and expert levels of deduction, I have concluded that the Mariners have played (approximately) one month of baseball. Ashley has a post coming up later in the week about April's progress report, and my guess is that there will be a lot of "needs improvement" and "see me" slips handed out. Abraham Almonte's parents will probably have to come in on a Saturday.

Because it's been a month, let's take a look at exactly what totals certain players are on pace for. Counting stats. Of course using rate statistics makes on pace stats completely irrelevant, but it also requires a mental baseline to be set for what's a good number and what's not. While some of you may already be at that point, others may not be, and those of us who grew up reading stats on the back of baseball cards know that 200+ strikeouts is pretty alarming, but man, 36% strikeouts seems really bad too. Either way, it's just perspective. That's never a bad thing.

This is for the casual, the lazy, it's just for fun. It's sunny in Seattle. It's hot. The Mariners have been winning games. Let's look at things in good ol' on-pace format. Let's look at RBIs without complaining about how poor of an individual evaluation tool they are. Let's meaninglessly expand small samples. Let's cherry pick. Let's be bad, you guys.


Robinson Cano:

.296/.346/.378. 32 2B, 6 HR, 78 RBI, 52 BB, 104 K, 13 SB

Things look semi-normal except for the power, and we all know it's coming. Underwhelming, but not of concern.

Justin Smoak:

.250/.309/.420. 39 2B, 19 HR, 97 RBI, 45 BB, 168 K, 0 SB

Walked 64 times last year and struck out 111 times.

Abraham Almonte:

.204/.248/.301. 32 2B, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 32 BB, 253 K, 13 SB

253 strikeouts would be an MLB record, exacerbated by the fact that he gets to hit (try) more than anybody else on the entire team. Make it stop. Please, Lloyd.

Kyle Seager:

.229/.333/.458. 26 2B, 32 HR, 84 RBI, 71 BB, 136 K, 6 SB

Back on track. Average is low, but so is his BABIP (.246). Previous career high in HR is 22. 68 BB last year.

Dustin Ackley:

.256/.298/.372. 26 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 71 RBI, 32 BB, 110 K, 6 SB

Encouraging signs, but fading stat line with increasingly scattered playing time.

Brad Miller:

174/.211/.326. 26 2B, 19 HR, 45 RBI, 13 BB, 168 K, 0 SB

Oh god no why stop it, I don't want to write about this

Corey Hart:

.240/.337/.453. 26 2B, 26 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB, 110 K, 0 SB

Mike Zunino:

.274/.299/.479. 26 2B, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 6 BB, 143 K

Zunino's one walk was intentional, so...this is worth further discussion at a later date. That slugging percentage, though.


Felix Hernandez:

2.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 19 HR, 45 BB, 305 K (266 IP)

As dominant as ever. Current strikeout rate is increasing for the 5th (!) straight year. K/BB ratio also increasing for 5th (!) straight year. FIP decreasing for the 3rd (!) straight year. WHIP decreasing for the 3rd (!) straight year. ERA decreasing for the 3rd (!) straight year.


Roenis Elias:

3.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 13 HR, 91 BB, 136 K (181 IP)

Puts into perspective how much of an issue the control can be, but he's limiting home runs and subsequent damage.

Chris Young:

3.04 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19 HR, 91 BB, 84 K (149.2 IP)

Poor control and missing no bats. More walks than strikeouts seems like a recipe for disaster, but this is the same pitcher who has stuck the middle finger to all peripherals over his career. I don't know what a Chris Young is but I do know he doesn't follow most rules as they relate to run prevention.

The sample size for relievers is incredibly volatile at this point, but just for fun, here's Archer Plantain:

Fernando Rodney:

3.86 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 0 HR, 39 BB, 97 K, 32 SV, 6 BLSV (58.1 IP)