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gWAR Projections for the 2014 Seattle Mariners

A new method for calculating WAR combines with a brand new projection system.

By Jesse Knutson
Kyseagus The Greek God of Naval Warfare
Kyseagus The Greek God of Naval Warfare

What better day than opening day to unveil a new projection system? We've kicked around ideas for optimal lineups and have seen the other various projection systems. We've debated how Steamer and ZiPS underestimated our favorite player by 0.1 WAR and added up the team totals to see where the Mariners stand. Those systems are thorough and established and respected. So why do we need a new one?

There are several reasons and I assure you gWAR brings something different to the table. First off, as fWAR stands for Fangraphs WAR and bWAR stands for Baseball-Reference WAR, gWAR stands for Great WAR and it is a system I have been developing with hundreds of experts for the last several years.

Secondly, unlike the WAR systems used in the current projection systems, gWAR is not only its own projection system but a different way of calculating WAR with some new inputs. Of course we use many of the same metrics that the current WAR systems use to evaluate batsmen, pitchers and defenders; name a stat and it was included in these projections. But that wouldn't set gWAR apart. New metrics, insights and inputs are what sets gWAR apart. Those experts I mentioned before? Yep, most of them contributed to these new inputs. But what could we have possibly found that would improve WAR calculations and give us more accurate projections?

I'm very excited to announce that we have found a way to quantify the skills known as clutch, grit, hustle, effect on chemistry and other. With the help of thousands of the world's finest psychologists, stress experts, brain doctors, sociologists, magicians, organizational synergy professionals, leadership type dudes and psychologists we have mapped the unmappable and come back from The Intangible Wasteland with answers. And numbers.

Without further blabbering, here are the 2014 projected gWAR numbers for the Seattle Mariners opening day roster (Plus Iwakuma and Walker since they are scheduled to return soon and make significant contributions). Steamer and ZiPS projections are included for comparison purposes.

Starting Pitchers

Erasmo Ramirez
  • ZiPS: 0.8 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.6 WAR
  • gWAR: 8.6 WAR
James Paxton
  • ZiPS: 0.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.3 WAR
  • gWAR: 11.4 WAR
Roenis Elias
  • ZiPS: N/A
  • Steamer: 0.0 WAR
  • gWAR: 6.8 WAR
Chris Young
  • ZiPS: -0.5 WAR
  • Steamer: -0.3 WAR
  • gWAR: 3.1 WAR
Taijuan Walker
  • ZiPS: 1.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.3 WAR
  • gWAR: 9.2 WAR
Hisashi Iwakuma
  • ZiPS: 3.8 WAR
  • Steamer: 2.5 WAR
  • gWAR: 9.9 WAR
Felix Hernandez
  • ZiPS: 5.8 WAR
  • Steamer: 4.6 WAR
  • gWAR: 15.8 WAR

King_felix

Relief Pitchers

Fernando Rodney
  • ZiPS: 0.6 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.9 WAR
  • gWAR: 5.1 WAR
Danny Farquhar
  • ZiPS: 1.2 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.8 WAR
  • gWAR: 5.8 WAR
Charlie Furbush
  • ZiPS: 0.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.4 WAR
  • gWAR: 4.6 WAR
Tom Wilhelmsen
  • ZiPS: 0.2 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.2 WAR
  • gWAR: 4.2 WAR
Yoervis Medina
  • ZiPS: -0.2 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.3 WAR
  • gWAR: 3.2 WAR
Joe Beimel
  • ZiPS: -0.4 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.0 WAR
  • gWAR: 2.7 WAR
Hector Noesi
  • ZiPS: -0.5 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.0 WAR
  • gWAR: -0.1 WAR

Relievers_final

Catchers

Mike Zunino
  • ZiPS: 1.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.6 WAR
  • gWAR: 9.8 WAR
John Buck
  • ZiPS: 0.9 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.4 WAR
  • gWAR: 3.2 WAR

Infielders

Justin Smoak
  • ZiPS: 0.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.0 WAR
  • gWAR: 7.2 WAR
Willie Bloomquist
  • ZiPS: -0.6 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.4 WAR
  • gWAR: 4.5 WAR
Robinson Cano
  • ZiPS: 4.8 WAR
  • Steamer: 5.0 WAR
  • gWAR: 14.8 WAR
Cano_final
Brad Miller
  • ZiPS: 2.7 WAR
  • Steamer: 3.5 WAR
  • gWAR: 12.7 WAR
Brad_miller_final
Kyle Seager
  • ZiPS: 2.9 WAR
  • Steamer: 3.3 WAR
  • gWAR: 10.1 WAR
Seager_final
Logan Morrison
  • ZiPS: 0.3 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.9 WAR
  • gWAR: 6.3 WAR
Lomo_final_1

Outfielders

Abraham Almonte
  • ZiPS: 0.4 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.4 WAR
  • gWAR: 7.8 WAR
Stefen Romero
  • ZiPS: -0.3 WAR
  • Steamer: 0.0 WAR
  • gWAR: 3.8 WAR
Michael Saunders
  • ZiPS: 1.3 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.7 WAR
  • gWAR: 8.4 WAR
Corey Hart
  • ZiPS: 0.4 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.8 WAR
  • gWAR: 6.3 WAR
Hart_final
Dustin Ackley
  • ZiPS: 1.5 WAR
  • Steamer: 1.6 WAR
  • gWAR: 12.1 WAR
Ackley

Conclusions

As you can see, Steamer and ZiPS are extremely underestimating the Mariners when compared to gWAR. But it's important to remember that they do the best they can with the limited information they have. If they had access to the psychological reports, stress tests, polygraphs, Myers-Briggs results, dream journals, stool samples and aura readings that gWAR does I am positive they would be more accurate.

Adding up all the above individual entries, gWAR pegs the Mariners for 197.3 WAR. Using the standard replacement level for wins of 47.7, this gives the 2014 Seattle Mariners 245 wins.

Rest in whatever damn way you want Oderus Urungus.

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