Melky Cabrera vs. the Trade Targets

Yesterday I took a look at how Melky Cabrera could fit on the Mariners in 2015 and beyond. When Cabrera's name comes up in conversation, there have generally been two very extreme reactions: "Yes, sign him now!" or "No, trade for Upton/Kemp!" There are pros and cons on both sides of the argument -- it's also good to keep in mind that it's not a binary choice either.

Since these three players are on our minds, and will be until something actually happens, I wanted to examine the case for each of them. Which one could actually return the most value to the Mariners when all is said and done? It's Melky Cabrera vs. Matt Kemp vs. Justin Upton.

*Disclaimer* This will be a very rough estimate of total value and I'll try my best to account for all of the factors at play. There are a few assumptions I'm making in this exercise:

• The cost of a win on the market is currently $7 million. Inflation will cause this value to rise by $0.5 million per year.
• I'm using the aging curves developed by Jeff Zimmerman for hitters and by Bill Petti for pitchers. Both batters and pitchers generally plateau until they turn 26, and then they start a long decline. For our purposes, once a player has reached their decline phase, I'll knock off 0.5 WAR per year.
• ZiPS projections for the Mariners haven't been released, so Steamer is the most respected projection system readily available. Since I'm not a time traveler or fortune teller, I'll be utilizing the projection that Steamer spits out a baseline for future performance.

Now that all the parameters are set, let's dig in!

The easiest case to make is Melky Cabrera since he's a free agent. Based on the rumors swirling about, I'm going to assume that Cabrera signs a five-year contract worth between $57 and $66 million total.

Based on his Steamer projection in 2015, Melky Cabrera is projected to accumulate just $25.5 million in value after five years. On the low end of the salary range, that's a loss of over $30 million and an overpay in the range of $40 million on the high end of the salary range. Yikes. Free agency seems to be out to an early deficit. (You could argue that the M's would consider cutting or benching Cabrera after his lousy hypothetical 2018 season, meaning that they aren't obligated to roll out negative-value Melky in 2019. In that case he's worth 3.8 total instead of 3.5.)

Let's say you think Cabrera will perform closer to his 2011-2012, and 2014 level. He averaged 3.6 WAR in those three years so let's say he'll be a 3.0 WAR player in 2015.

That adjustment comes out in favor of the Mariners -- they would receive a return of between $20.5 million and $11.5 million depending on Cabrera's yearly salary. That's a pretty significant range of outcomes. I'm willing to split the difference between his Steamer projection and his recent historical performance, giving us 2.4 WAR in 2015. That gives us a fairly even deal on the low end of the salary range and a loss of around $10 million on the high end.

Estimated Melky Cabrera Total Value: -$5.0 million

Let's move on to the trade targets. But before we examine their direct value they would bring to the Mariners, we have to figure out the value of the prospects they'd be giving up in a potential trade. The most often cited prospects the Mariners would have to part with to acquire Upton or Kemp are either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton. Since one of these young pitchers would probably be the headlining piece to any blockbuster trade I'll use them as my guinea pigs. You can make your own adjustments to the outgoing value of the prospects if you think Upton or Kemp could be had for less than Paxton or Walker.

Our first task, then, is to figure out how much value Walker or Paxton would accumulate in their remaining years of team control (this assumes that they won't be signing any contract extension before hitting free agency, an unlikely event but one that I won't account for). The hardest part will be projecting arbitration salaries. MLB Trade Rumors has built a projection model but it isn't publically available so I input my best guess based on similar pitchers and their arbitration amounts. We also have to discount the future value of the prospect since we want to know the present day value of the trade piece.

Paxton is the easiest to calculate since he's already pitched in half a year's worth of major league innings. He has 5 years of team control left but he's already 26 and entering his decline phase by my parameters. Steamer projects 1.6 WAR from him in 2015 but he was on pace to accumulate 3.0 WAR if he had pitched 175 innings last year -- I'll split the difference in my evaluation.

Paxton is projected to be worth around $23.5 million over the next five years.

Taijuan Walker has all six years of team control remaining and just turned 22-years-old. Steamer projects around 1.0 WAR from him in 2015 if his projection was prorated over 175 innings. I'll assume that Walker will peak at 3.0 WAR a few years from now and then begin his decline when he reaches 27 in 2020.

Walker is projected to be worth around $65.5 million over the next six years.

That really puts into perspective just how valuable young, cost-controlled players are. It also shows just how much more valuable Walker is than Paxton. Jack Zduriencik has gone on record saying Walker is unavailable in a trade (which must be taken with a grain of salt). For our purposes, let's assume that Walker is off the table and that any blockbuster trade will include Paxton.

Justin Upton is projected to be worth 3.1 fWAR by Steamer, which makes him worth $21.7 million in current WAR dollars. ZiPS is less impressed with Upton, projecting just 2.9 fWAR in 2015. His salary in 2015 will be $14.5 million giving the Mariners a return between $7.2 million and $5.8 million. That tiny amount of profit pales in the face of the massive loss trading away Paxton would be.

Estimated Justin Upton Total Value: -$30 million

Matt Kemp is 30-years-old and is signed through 2019. He's owed $107 million over the remainder of his contract but the Dodgers have been rumored to be willing to cover a portion of Kemp's contract if they were to trade him. Steamer projects him to be worth 2.1 WAR in 2015.

If the Dodgers didn't cover any of Kemp's salary, he would come at a loss of over $60 million. That's mitigated somewhat if they covered half of his remaining salary -- the loss would only be $12 million. Add in the lost value for Paxton and this becomes a disaster of a deal.

Estimated Matt Kemp Total Value: -$60 million

Based on these rough calculations, signing Melky Cabrera quickly becomes the easy option for the Mariners to fill their hole in right field. Even if you think that Cabrera has been playing over his head and that the Steamer projection of 1.7 WAR in 2015 is accurate, he's still a better value than both Upton and Kemp. There might be a ton of things wrong with running quick calculations like this and none of this is set in stone, but this exercise has shown just how bad things could go if we traded for Justin Upton or Matt Kemp. The calculations I ran are a best-case scenario (or worst-case depending on your perspective) and assume there is no lost time due to injury and that player development and decline occurs linearly, both of these assumptions will be inevitably proven false. Still, it's interesting to view the Mariners' options through this lens.

Even if you think I'm overvaluing Taijuan Walker and James Paxton and are the most ardent believer in the "Flags Fly Forever" argument, Melky Cabrera probably makes more sense than trading for Upton or Kemp. That's not to say that a trade is the worst possible decision for the Mariners. There are a number of other outfield trade candidates who would cost much less than Walker or Paxton (Joyce, Fowler, etc.). If the Mariners traded for one of these options, we'd probably see a higher return on investment than we'd see if we traded for Upton or Kemp. There are also other free agent possibilities who would earn a similar amount of value who could be signed for much less than Cabrera (Aoki, Rios, etc.).

Ultimately, it comes down to how much you're willing to risk on 2015. All three of these options have huge downsides years down the road. If you're all-in for 2015 and don't care about the Mariners paying for it in 2017 and 2018, then signing Cabrera or trading for Kemp or Upton could make sense. But if you're more risk adverse, signing or trading for one of the alternative right field options makes this dichotomy a moot point.

What do you think? Are the Mariners forcing themselves into a Cabrera or Kemp/Upton dichotomy or should Jack Z be patient and see what alternative options are out there?