World Series Preview: Giants (88-74) and Royals (89-73)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Tuesday, October 21	5:00pm	Giants	LHP Madison Bumgarner	Royals	RHP James Shields
Wednesday, October 22	5:00pm	Giants	RHP Jake Peavy	Royals	RHP Yordano Ventura
Friday, October 24	5:00pm	Royals	RHP Jeremy Guthrie	Giants	RHP Tim Hudson
Saturday, October 25	5:00pm	Royals	LHP Jason Vargas	Giants	RHP Ryan Vogelsong
Sunday, October 26	5:00pm	Royals	TBD	Giants	TBD
Tuesday, October 28	5:00pm	Giants	TBD	Royals	TBD
Wednesday, October 29	5:00pm	Giants	TBD	Royals	TBD

	Royals	Giants	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	94 (11th in AL)	107 (3rd in NL)	GIANTS
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	74.8 (1st)	-1.4 (8th)	ROYALS
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	101 (7th)	106 (11th)	ROYALS
Bullpen (FIP-)	86 (1st)	100 (11th)	ROYALS

Tomorrow, the 2014 Fall Classic begins in Kansas City as the Royals look to win their first championship since 1985 and the San Francisco Giants are looking to win their third in five years. The playoffs are all about narratives and storylines. Here's just a sampling for what you can expect to hear Joe Buck talk about for the next 10 days:

Even Year - The Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012. They missed the playoffs in 2011 and 2013. Some people have already crowned the Giants champions already. It's just math folks.

The Earthquake Series - Did you know that the Giants were in the World Series 25 years ago and that a major earthquake struck the Bay Area on the day of the third game? I bet you'll be reminded about it at least once a game this year.

George Brett and 1985 Royals - George Brett led the Royals to their last championship in 1985. Now he's the Vice President, Baseball Operations for the Royals. I'd expect at least three reaction shots per game and at least two live interviews -- awkwardly distracting from gameplay -- during the series.

The Plan - This World Series appearance is vindication for Dayton Moore who, in his eighth year as general manager, has finally seen his long-term plan for the organization come to fruition. Built around a strong, young core, this team has been fun to watch all postseason long and they haven't lost a game yet. It'll be a battle between two teams built to play in the National League, except one is from the American League.

Bud Selig - It will be the last World Series Bud Selig presides over as commissioner of baseball. I'd expect one awkward on-field ceremony and one live interview where all of the answers were written five months ago by a media intern.

The Royals:

If you've been following along this postseason, you've seen the Royals win by sticking to their strengths: putting runners in motion, bunting, a strong bullpen, and great defense. Ned Yost has caught some flak for some of his old school decision making but it's seems to have paid off for him so far. Every time he decides to bunt in an early inning or stick to his very defined bullpen roles, expect a million Sabermetric voices to cry out in terror before being silenced.

Key Players

LF Alex Gordon - Gordon had an amazing season in left for the Royals and has come through with some clutch hits in the postseason. He's clearly the star of this team.

CF Lorenzo Cain - Cain finally put together a healthy season and flourished in center for the Royals. He's made some stellar plays in the field and has been a steady presence at the top of the lineup.

C Salvador Perez - Perez has struggled at the plate this postseason (4 hits in 8 games) but his defense behind the plate has been valuable enough for the Royals.

Probable Pitchers

RHP James Shields
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
227	19.2%		4.7%		9.7%	45.2%		3.21		3.59
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Cutter			Knucklecurve		Changeup
92.5 mph; 29.6%		92.1 mph; 12.0%		86.4 mph; 25.3%			79.5 mph; 11.3%		85.2 mph; 21.8%

James Shields hasn't pitched very well in his three postseason starts, running an ERA over 5.00. Still, he's the unquestioned ace of the staff and he'll get the start in Game One. His pitch repertoire hasn't changed much from his regular season usage: heavy fastball usage, particularly his cutter, and a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch.

RHP Yordano Ventura
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
183	20.3%		8.8%		8.3%	47.6%		3.20		3.60
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Cutter			Curveball		Changeup
96.0 mph; 53.9%		96.6 mph; 19.9%		94.9 mph; 2.2%			82.8 mph; 14.5%		86.3 mph; 9.3%

Twenty-three-year-old Yordano Ventura has also struggled in his three postseason appearances but he'll get the start in Game Two anyway. His main weapon is his fastball -- all three grips have a positive run value according to FanGraphs.

RHP Jeremy Guthrie
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
202 2/3	14.4%		5.7%		9.4%	43.6%		4.13		4.32
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Slider			Curveball		Changeup
92.1 mph; 36.2%		91.3 mph; 15.4%		85.0 mph; 14.6%			75.0 mph; 7.9%		86.2 mph; 25.5%

The Royals haven't announced the rest of their rotation past Shields and Ventura but if Yost sticks with the rotation he used in the ALCS, Jeremy Guthrie will get the start in Game Three. He was able to hold the Orioles to just one run in five innings in his only postseason start.

LHP Jason Vargas
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
187	16.2%		5.2%		8.2%	38.3%		3.71		3.84
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Cutter			Curveball		Changeup
87.3 mph; 43.4%		87.0 mph; 13.5%		84.7 mph; 0.3%			74.7 mph; 12.1%		80.4 mph; 30.4%

Here's a fun Jason Vargas story: back before he had established himself in the Mariners' rotation, a friend and I had the opportunity to get Jason's autograph before a game at Safeco Field. My friend didn't hesitate to ask and Vargas became one of his favorite players. I decided to save the one baseball I brought to see if I could get another signature from someone more impressive. Oops.

The Giants:

The Giants are playing in their third World Series in five years and have been carried by the same core of players each time. They've maximized their strengths over these last five years, both solid hitting and great pitching have earned them two championships and the potential for a third.

Key Players

C Buster Posey - One of the best hitters in the game, Buster Posey has surprisingly been fairly quiet this postseason. He has 13 hits in 43 at bats but no extra base hits.

RF Hunter Pence - These facts are all you need to know about Hunter Pence.

3B Pablo Sandoval - Pablo Sandoval became a postseason hero in 2012 and has been a key contributor for the Giants this year as well. As well as he's hit for the Giants, his defense at the hot corner never ceases to amaze me, not because he's a world-class defender but because his body type makes every play he makes look like he's a world-class defender.

Probable Pitchers

LHP Madison Bumgarner
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
217 1/3	25.1%		4.9%		10.0%	44.4%		2.98		3.05
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Slider			Curveball		Changeup
92.0 mph; 27.2%		92.0 mph; 17.2%		88.1 mph; 34.1%			76.4 mph; 14.0%		83.7 mph; 7.3%

Madison Bumgarner has emerged as the ace of the Giants' pitching staff this year and has dominated in the postseason. He relies on his fastball and slider to rack up strikeouts. He also isn't a slouch at the plate but he does have something to learn about chugging beer.

RHP Jake Peavy
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
202 2/3	18.5%		7.4%		9.1%		38.5%		3.73		4.11
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Cutter		Slider		Curveball		Changeup
89.9 mph; 26.0%		89.9 mph; 26.6%		86.5 mph; 18.4%		82.2 mph; 6.0%		79.7 mph; 11.9%		82.4 mph; 10.6%

Returning to the National League was all Jake Peavy needed to start his career renaissance. After being traded to the Giants from the Red Sox, he's started to use his fastball -- all three grips -- more often and that has translated to a great results and some excellent starts in the postseason.

RHP Tim Hudson
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
189 1/3	15.2%		4.3%		9.3%	53.1%		3.57		3.54
Pitches
Four-seam		Cutter		Splitter			Sinker		Curveball
89.1 mph; 10.2%		83.5 mph; 22.6%		80.8 mph; 14.9%			88.9 mph; 43.4%		75.6 mph; 8.4%

Tim Hudson has survived this long in the majors by sticking to a very simple game plan: eliminate walks and make hitters pound the ball into the ground. It's been very successful for him and the Giants have reaped the benefits. He'll make a start in AT&T Park where his groundball tendencies are maximized.

RHP Ryan Vogelsong
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
184 2/3	19.4%		7.4%		8.8%	38.4%		4.00		3.85
Pitches
Four-seam		Two-seam		Slider			Curveball		Changeup
90.4 mph; 38.8%		90.3 mph; 9.1%		87.9 mph; 19.7%			77.0 mph; 18.6%		83.5 mph; 13.5%

Looking at Ryan Vogelsong's splits is like looking at Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. At home, opposing batters have a wOBA of just .276; on the road, that mark jumps up to .373. In other words, at home, opposing batters hit like B.J. Upton but they hit like his battery mate, Buster Posey, on the road. It's a good thing Vogelsong is scheduled to start Game Four in San Francisco.

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The 2014 major league baseball season is almost at an end. It all comes down to the Royals versus the Giants. How fun has this postseason been to watch? Who are you rooting for?

I think the Giants are going to win in six. What are your predictions?