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Crowdsourcing: What's a fair contract for Kendrys Morales?

The Mariners are going to offer Kendrys Morales a qualifying offer, which means he'll be making somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million over one year, if he accepts. If he doesn't, what is a fair offer?

DON'T FUCKING JUMP - felix hernandez
DON'T FUCKING JUMP - felix hernandez
Otto Greule Jr

The Mariners are probably not going to let Kendrys Morales walk. The club seems particularly enamored with him, and even though I endorsed the forthcoming qualifying offer previously, it is undoubtedly a risky move. If Morales accepts, most agree that he'll be overpaid next season on his one year deal in the neighborhood of $14 million.  If that happens, this discussion is pretty stupid and a waste of time. So is most everything that we debate in the offseason, but that doesn't make it any less interesting, does it?

Let's assume for the sake of this discussion that Morales decides to walk away from the qualifying offer, testing the market. His suitors are likely to be limited given his glove-given limitations. There's more than a few teams who are probably going to be set in that regard, and a number of other ones who have historically preferred combing the bargain bin for their 1B/DH candidates (Tampa Bay). Add in all the teams with an unprotected draft pick, and it starts to get pretty thin. Boras knows this, but it's never stopped him from getting a deal before. This is the possibly the biggest game of chicken Boras has ever played.

The best fit for Morales is probably going to end up being Seattle, since they have the biggest hole that he's about to vacate. There's a pretty plausible scenario that has Scott Boras attempting to drum up interest well past the winter meetings, being met with an ice cold market, and coming back to Seattle at a deal much more reasonable than he's surely demanding now - the same demands that have caused the Mariners to extend a qualifying offer in the first place, which could make this potential contract for Morales essentially baseball's version of a poison pill - a player that other teams may not want, but not for what it'll cost them.

I would make this a poll, but there's too many variables at play, so bring it to the comments. Length, money, or contingency plans - what would be your approach to bringing Kendrys Morales back if he declines the qualifying offer? Or would you prefer to let him walk, and take the potential draft pick?

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