Let's just come out and acknowledge the way that most of us probably feel: the Mariners will suck, because the Mariners just suck, and it doesn't matter who the Mariners acquire, because whoever the Mariners acquire will just end up sucking. It's completely stupid and completely irrational and yet we can feel justified in our pessimism because holy shit the Mariners have sucked for a while and sometimes it's satisfying to preemptively wallow. One of the players who might suck as a Mariner is free-agent Mike Napoli, to whom the Mariners have been linked. With any reasonably high-profile free agent, there can be a lot of misinformation, so I thought it would be worth going over what we know about the Napoli sweepstakes real quick.
First, the Rangers didn't extend to Napoli a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer. That does not mean the Rangers can't attempt to re-sign Napoli; that means the Rangers weren't sure if Napoli could get a similar or better offer from someone else. Now, Ryan Divish:
While the blog says he will meet with the Mariners, Napoli has already in fact met with the Mariners earlier in the week.
Confirmed: Red Sox management and ownership met with Mike Napoli this weekend according to a major league source.— Nick Cafardo (@nickcafardo) November 25, 2012
Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said on Friday the “lines of communication remain open” with free-agent catcher-first baseman Mike Napoli.
As is the case with outfielder Josh Hamilton, another of their high-profile free agents, the Rangers are letting Napoli explore the market before having definitive talks with him. The sides are likely to get together during the winter meetings.
I don't know what it means to say the lines of communication remain open -- I guess the Rangers and Napoli aren't yet screening each others' phone calls. The Rangers will presumably get some opportunity to do something before Napoli commits elsewhere. The thing about the winter meetings reads like a guess, but the winter meetings are nearly upon us, so I suppose don't expect Napoli to make a decision this coming week. No need to hurry.
So the above are pretty much all facts. Now for a couple other things:
Mike Napoli determined to get 4th year...waiting on Red Sox or Rangers to blink (Mariners still in it)— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) November 25, 2012
Just spoke to Mike Napoli. Stuff being leaked isn't even things he and his agent have discussed. Don't believe everything you read— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) November 23, 2012
The second comes from someone who's also a personal friend of Napoli's, and while I don't know what it refers to, it could be the speculation that Napoli insists on four years, or it could be the speculation that Napoli insists on catching. I don't know what else has been leaked. There was one report that the Mariners have already made Napoli an offer, and maybe that's wrong, but if an offer hasn't been made yet, an offer will probably be made sometime soon. You don't meet with a player and then not make any attempt to actually sign him. I think. I don't know, I've never GMed. Maybe the Mariners just wanted to know what kind of music Mike Napoli is into. (Country. There's no way it wouldn't be country.)
Odds are fairly good that the Mariners sign Mike Napoli, if only because so few teams appear to be seriously interested. I am not saying that the Mariners are the favorites, and I have no way of knowing whether the Mariners are the favorites. I can't imagine that they would be, since Napoli would probably like to play for a good team, and he has no reason to believe the Mariners are good now. He's also a Florida guy and it doesn't get further from home, in major-league baseball, than Seattle. If I had to guess, the Mariners would have to healthily out-bid the Red Sox, in terms of money or more probably years. I don't get the vibe that the Rangers are desperately hoping to bring Napoli back, but I'm sure there are terms they'd find agreeable, so the Mariners would have to out-bid those, too. I haven't even considered the possibility that another team or teams get involved.
Nowhere in here is a stated judgment on the wisdom of giving, say, four guaranteed years to Mike Napoli. I don't know if it would take four years, and if it did, I don't know how much those four years would cost. I have been more excited about other free agents in the past. I have also been a lot less excited about other free agents in the past. If nothing else, there is presently a variety of players who might become the next Mariners acquisition that sucks a lot. I can hardly stand to wait.