clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Miguel Olivo's Perplexing Double Identity

New, 34 comments

I'm trying this new thing where I work from a coffeeshop sometimes, like everybody else in the northwest. Working from home all the time sounds like the dream, but it really can drive you insane if you're not careful, and I'm not the careful sort (ladies). So I'm trying a change, and the point of this introduction is to say that I'm really easily distracted, and that if you notice that my writing becomes more distracted, it's because I'm around people more now, and people make noise. Who knows what effect this might have? Like that ladies joke. What the hell is that? What am I doing?

Oh and also it's time for my biweekly guest post at the Brock & Salk blog, delayed by a week thanks to Dave's inconsiderate return from leukemia. It's not all about you, Dave. The subject of this post is Miguel Olivo. The first couple paragraphs:

In a baseball world littered with statistical volatility and fluctuation, one of our comforts is that there are numbers that tend to remain more or less where they are. There are the more volatile numbers, like ERA or batting average, and then there are the more stable numbers, like walks and home runs and strikeouts. The relative stability of some of these peripherals reassures us that baseball isn't 100 percent completely random.

Because these numbers tend to be pretty stable, sometimes we can read into changes as reflecting changes in player ability. Let's take some hypothetical hitter. If he suddenly starts drawing more walks, that suggests that he's become more selective. If he suddenly starts hitting more home runs, that suggests that he's improved his swing. If he suddenly starts striking out more often, that suggests that he's become less selective, or his swing has gotten worse.

You can read the rest of the post right here. And you should know that, since I wrote it up, Olivo played in another game, and didn't walk. On May 22nd, in a game against the Royals, Colby Rasmus walked five times. That is four more times than Miguel Olivo has walked since May 31st.