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Series Preview: San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners

MARINERS (39-42) Δ Ms PADRES (37-45) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -75.5 (30th) -1.5 -32.9 (25th)
San Diego
FIELDING 23.7 (3rd) 0.8 -15.3 (26th)
33.5 (3rd) -1.5 -4.7 (15th)
3.9 (13th) 0.4 18.2 (2nd)
San Diego
-14.4 (18th) -1.8 -34.6 (23rd)
Running (BsR)
0.5 (12th) 1.6
-0.6 (16th)

Welcome back, Rob Johnson! It feels like it's been ages. Mostly because I have consciously savored all the time since you left. No matter though, how have you been? Oh, that bad huh? Well, at least you always could throw out would-be base stealers! Oh. That bad huh?

It's a different world than the one I am accustomed to when we are relieved that the Mariners do not have to face the power house of the Padres rotation and that person is Tim Stauffer. Not that Stauffer is terrible, it's just that he's so Padres. He's the Padres' starter version of Wes Helms. Tim Stauffer has always been a Padre and always will be, until he becomes a Red, a Brewer or a Royal. He's supposed to be non-descript and sort of just there. This might be how other teams feel about Doug Fister.

Fri 01 Jul 19:10


Ah, former not good Angel Dustin Moseley. He was a Yankee last season and now with the Padres, he's still the same as he's ever been just with a few more ground balls, but still a limited ability to miss bats even while throwing many pitches out of the strike zone. Both Moseley and Vargas attack the strike zone with sinkers that don't sink particularly much. Where Vargas has the edge is in his secondary stuff as he utilizes his change up more often and his cutter stays in the strike zone.

Sat 02 Jul 19:10


The Padres, like the Braves before them, have an excellent bullpen. However, a big part of that great pen was Cory Luebke, who is now no longer in the pen, but in the rotation. How is he in the rotation? Difficult to say since he only has 21 Major League innings there, but he came up mostly as a starter so that may be where the Padres keep him long term. 

The Padres still have an abundance of relief talent with Mike Adams and Heath Bell who has not yet been traded. They also should expect to see better things out of Luke Gregerson when he returns from the disabled list. He's had a bizarre season in 2011. In 2009 and 2010, Gregerson struck out 30% of all batters he faced. That's an extraordinary high rate, but so far this year, that fell all the way down to 12%! Nothing else about Gregerson's numbers changed, and he was still missing bats at a very high pace. His contact rate has been higher, but it's hard to overstate how big a fall from 30% to 12% is. A good portion of that is almost certainly small sample variation and I'd bet that Gregerson returns closer to form. Luckily, that will not be against the Mariners!

Sun 03 Jul 13:10

Mat Latos is good, but question mark is intriguing.This was Erik Bedard's slot in the rotation and instead of using the off day to bump Felix and Pineda up, the team is saying that Sunday is when they'll make the roster move needed to sub in for Bedard. That means the streak of only using five starting pitchers will end at 83 games. I didn't poll on that before the season began, but I wish I had. Who would have realistically thought the team would make it into July without needing a sixth starter?