Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

After shutting out Oakland in consecutive games, I don't think any of us are happy with a 2-2 split of the four game series. Not that I harbor dreams of playoff contention still, but tolerable baseball needn't only be confined to those within the pennant chase.

I finally have a large enough sample size to start moving over to 2011 averages for aspects like run expectancy charts and expected out values. That means the wOBA and tRA totals have been re-normalized and so it will not match up exactly with the previous series preview. Basically, offense is down across baseball right now so our pathetic hitting isn't as pathetic as it was appearing. I left the deltas for this series comparing before the number fiddling so that it bears an accurate portrayal of how the Mariners performed against Oakland.

Which is to say, very poorly. Over a four game home series, the Mariner hitters managed a grand total of four extra base hits: a double and home run from Adam Kennedy, a double from Ichiro Suzuki and a double from Michael Saunders. That's it.

Tue 26 April 16:05
FELIX HERNANDEZ	PHIL COKE*

A repeat of the last Phil Coke start would be dandy, but I'd settle for fewer walks and more actual hitting. It's great and all that the Mariners are so patient at the plate and can at least draw walks. Can you imagine how much worse they would be if they couldn't? But actual hits are more fun. Surrender your hits, Phil. I know you have some in there.

Felix Hernandez has yet to turn in a truly dominant outing this season and we're inching closer to the month of May when he has struggled for the past couple seasons. Felix hasn't been bad, of course, but he's missing one of those 90% ground ball games with seven or eight strikeouts and no walks. This is me nitpicking Felix's 2011 season. This is what we get to have. Ain't it grand? Even in the midst of this tower of bran-flavored bran oatmeal that is the boringness of the Mariners' offense, we have Felix.

Wed 27 April 16:05
ERIK BEDARD	JUSTIN VERLANDER

I am now over my initial early season optimism about Erik Bedard and have moved into the cramped studio apartment that is detached semi-interest. I wish him well and I'm glad that he's back, but he inspires no confidence in me. Erik Bedard is a perilously tall stack of Jenga blocks. I'm fascinated, but I don't want to even be in the same room.

Thu 28 April 10:05
MICHAEL PINEDA	BRAD PENNY

I remember when Brad Penny used to strike people out. He never blew lots of people away, but it's quite a bit down this season, along with his pitch speed. Though his average fastball is listed above at 94mph, it has been down at 92 in 2011.

All right, ground ball ratings for Michael Pineda! Detroit is the fifth new team for Pineda to face out of his five career starts and this one could be ripe for a mowing. The Tiger's lineup relies heavily on right-handers. If Pineda is on his game, I am not sure Detroit has the necessary firepower to do anything against him. Together with Felix Hernandez, that gives us a shot at a series win!