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A Circular Path

Last year, I went through and grabbed the Mariner team run values from the 54-odd series previews I wrote in 2010 and graphed them, giving us a sense of the how the values trended throughout the season. I began with hitting last time and so I acquiesce to my former self and repeat. As a reminder, I measure hitting prowess by using park-adjusted team wOBA, adjusted to runs with the standard formula.* The graph is of the team's cumulative batting runs compared to league average with a data point at the beginning of each new series.

*bRAA = (Park Adjusted wOBA - League wOBA) / 1.15 * (PA - IBB - SH)

2010's graph looked like this:
Braa_medium

Here is this year's with some new formatting:
Braa01_medium

Wow, what a difference a year makes! I did miss on adding an ending point for the final regular season numbers in 2010, which is why the team's total bRAA appears to be about -175 instead of the -185 it actually ended at. This year's Mariners were only -172.5! By that two-season pace, the Mariners will reach an average offense at the conclusion of the 2025 season. Cosmically, that's right around the bend!

However, the 2011 Mariners actually posted the same (StatCorner) wOBA of .294 as the 2010 version. It's just the everyone else got worse at offense. So I suppose the "trend" is less about the Mariners reaching average than it is about the rest of the league reaching the Mariners. That would make baseball pretty unwatchable. Synergistically though, it would also reduce the amount of time baseball was on the air. I guess everybody wins there; except people who actually like baseball. Luckily none of those people read this blog, having long since been chased away from the Mariners. In that fashion, these charts also multitask as approximations of our collective interest level as the season progressed.