Series Preview: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 55-91
Texas: 82-63

The Mariners' offense is on pace for a bRAA of -188 runs by the end of the season. Can they make it to -200? It's going to be really tough but dammit, I believe in this team!

If they average exactly two runs per game the remaining 16 games, the 2010 Mariners will have scored 499 runs.

Fri Sep 17, 19:10: Felix Hernandez vs. C.J. Wilson*

Sat Sep 18, 16:10: Jason Vargas* vs. Cliff Lee*

Sun Sep 19, 13:10: Doug Fister vs. Tommy Hunter

I am conflicted about Cliff Lee pitching. It's nice that he's back in Seattle and I really hope that the crowd acknowledges him. Make him feel loved here, Seattlites. On the other hand, I don't really want to be reminded of him in a Rangers uniform. It's like running into your ex who you still love but dumped you and his/her new squeeze. No matter how unlikely, there's still some harboring of hope and so you want to leave that bridge intact, but there's a limit to how much I can pretend to be happy for you, Lindsey.

Doug Fister has 15 starts at home and 10 on the road. He's pitched 100 innings at home with a 3.4 strikeout to (net) walk ratio. He's pitched 52.2 innings with a 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio on the road. Fister is a ground balling right-hander, exactly the opposite archetype from the pitcher supposed to get a big Safeco boost. That's neat! Also, beware Fister's regression in the future if/when he gets more road starts!

Vargas, meanwhile, who is the fly balling left-hander that Safeco should coddle, has a better K/nBB rate on the road (2.6) than at home (2.2). Not that Safeco's effects are limited to strikeouts and walks--and Vargas' ERA is vastly better at home--I just like that Vargas isn't actually pitching better at home.