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Series Preview: Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

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Seattle: 37-58
Boston: 53-42

MARINERS Δ Ms RED SOX EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-110.6 (30th) -7.7 53.3 (2nd) Boston
FIELDING (UZR) 16.4 (8th) 0.0 12.4 (11th) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
18.0 (11th) 7.8 2.3 (15th) Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)
-26.2 (29th) -1.8 -13.9 (23rd) Boston
OVERALL(RAA)
-102.4 (26th) -1.7 54.1 (8th) BOSTON






 

Oh. Oh god. The offense. The Mariners sans offense have been worth 8.2 runs above average. Not exactly what we were hoping for given that we knew the offense was going to be the weak point of this team, but not fetal position crying jag inducing either. The Boston Red Sox were also expected to be a pitching and defense team that had hitting as their weakest --though by no means weak-- asset. That hasn't been borne out by the season and in fact removing the offense leaves the Red Sox at 0.8 runs to average. 

If you looked only at defense and pitching, the Mariners and Red Sox have essentially been equal teams. Does this mean anything? Not really, but then again does anything mean anything? Think about it while I eat this Oreo.

Mmm. On the plus side, a banner series for the rotation as Pauley was what you like to see out of a fifth starter, much less a seventh or eighth starter and Fister and Felix turned in magnificent performances.

Thu Jul 22, 19:10: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. John Lackey

Fri Jul 23, 19:10: Jason Vargas* vs. Josh Beckett

Sat Jul 24, 19:10: David Pauley vs. Jon Lester*

Sun Jul 25, 13:10: Doug Fister vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

The Red Sox have three starters who have performed below average this season and those three are Lackey, Beckett and Matsuzaka. Time to regress fellas! In November of 2006, the Red Sox inked Daisuke Matsuzka to a six year contract that cost them a combined $103 million between guaranteed money to Daisuke and money for his posting. We were all dismayed at losing out on Matsuzaka originally though less dismayed when the costs became known.

We should be even less dismayed now as Matsuzaka has performed up to a worth around $40 million to date and realistically is going to top out at around $60 million. More than he got paid by Boston but far less than Boston paid to get him.

Also that winter, and likely in retaliation, the Yankees signed Kei Igawa to a five year contract for a combined $46 million dollars. Igawa has been worth -0.2 WAR for the Yankees and remains in Triple-A. We not only landed the best Japanese player, but we also encouraged other teams to ultimately throw away a lot of money chasing similar success. The Seattle Mariners, trend setters!

Felix almost personally keeps the Mariners from suffering their first sweep at home to the White Sox since 1993, but by dint of pitching the closing game of that series, the Mariners embark on a four game series against the Red Sox in which the above four are our starters. This could be very, very painful if you still care. I am insulated from caring thanks to these Oreos and this handy survival blanket that I stole from Jeff.

Ryan Rowland-Smith Jason Vargas David Pauley Doug Fister
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 40% 88 45 65 35
Sinker 19% 88 25 55 30
Change 18% 80 45 50 35
Curve 17% 72 30 75 70
Slider 5% 79 45 70 35
Overall -- -- 30 60 40
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 44% 87 50 35 30
Sinker 24% 86 30 60 30
Change 23% 80 80 70 35
Slider 7% 83 20 35 35
Overall -- -- 55 55 25
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 47% 90 25 70 30
Curve 20% 76 75 25 65
Change 13% 82 75 25 60
Slider 11% 82 60 80 70
Sinker 9% 89 20 75 60
Overall -- -- 60 55 45
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 58% 88 20 65 60
Change 19% 81 45 80 70
Curve 9% 74 55 30 80
Sinker 8% 88 25 50 55
Slider 7% 83 30 80 45
Overall -- -- 20 70 65

John Lackey Josh Beckett Jon Lester Daisuke Matsuzaka
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 47% 91 45 65 55
Curve 25% 79 65 75 60
Sinker 14% 91 30 45 40
Slider 12% 83 65 50 70
Overall -- -- 50 60 60
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 63% 94 70 80 65
Curve 24% 77 60 50 40
Sinker 10% 92 70 55 50
Overall -- -- 60 70 60
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 58% 93 75 60 75
Sinker 16% 89 80 70 50
Curve 14% 77 65 50 65
Change 7% 85 60 25 75
Overall -- -- 70 55 70
Pitch % Sp K BB GB
Fastball 49% 92 75 35 25
Slider 20% 83 45 55 50
Sinker 17% 90 55 65 35
Curve 7% 80 60 40 40
Change 7% 82 45 20 20
Overall -- -- 65 35 25