348 runs scored, 366 runs allowed. That is what some people are going to focus on as we hit the All-Star Break and more trade rumors heat up. A negative run differential and yet we are four games over .500. We must be getting lucky and just like 2007, this facade of competitiveness will come crashing down and we will rue the day if we do not take the chance now to trade for the future. Move Washburn, move Bedard, move Aardsma, move Branyan. Time to forget about 2009 and focus on 2010. Zduriencik has built a nice start, now lets give him the trade chits to add some more.
Right?
Wrong.
I talked about it 16 or so months ago and we have mentioned it several times since then. Straight pythag record is fine for a quick estimate, but we have much more advanced methods of evaluation available to us and ignoring them would be silly.
I am not going to re-hash the whole discussion, read my linked post above to get the full details. The only addition to that piece that I would add in is a correction on the strength of schedule faced by the team. Suffice to say, here is the breakdown:
Average winning percentage of Mariner opponents to date: .517
BaseRuns Scored: 367
BaseRuns Allowed: 363
Expected BsR Record: 46-42*
Even subbing in tRA for the runs allowed estimator and applying park and defense measurements leaves the team right about at their 46-42 record. The Mariners have played the third hardest schedule in baseball to date based on opponents winning percentage. The Mariners have earned their first half record.
* The formula (ignore last two lines and sub in 88 for 162 in third most bottom line): 