We're 10% of the way through the season (already?!) and a current look at the PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds shows this:
Yeah, that's the Mariners up top both in current standings and in likelihood to still be playing after game 162. Interestingly, each individual team is projected to finish below .500, though it is still likely that one of the teams takes advantage of its crippled zebras for companions and breaks away from the pack. As it stands now, PECOTA thinks the Mariners are the most likely candidate to be that team.
Have we over achieved to date? A bit, yes. You cannot really count on continuing to win 1-0 games all season long. But there is no escaping the math and the math said this division lacked a top tier team and the two at the top have both experienced key pitching injuries. And importantly, the games already played aren't going to be replayed. They are history and the history favors us. It is a tenuous lead though - the Mariners cannot let the coming regression from the pitching staff overtake some hope for progression from the bats. Today is the start of three games against Anaheim. Keep going Ms.