clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Community Projection Results: Everyone Else

Why put them all in a bunch of individual posts if you don't have to? At this point I'm just in a rush to get them done and out of the way so we can officially put the offseason behind us. Onward!


673 (678)
2B: 24 (22)
3B: 7 (7)
HR: 9 (6)
HBP: 4 (3)
BB:  48 (49)
K: 72 (77)
SB: 41 (37)
CS: 9 (8)
GB%: 54 (56)

.337 (.351)
OBP: .385 (.396)
SLG: .434 (.431)
IsoPa: .048 (.045)
IsoPo: .097 (.080)

Technically a bit of a drop-off, but not much of one. Ichiro compensates for a small dip in average by hitting for a little more power, meaning that - once again - the team's best hitter will be batting leadoff, coming to the plate several more times than anyone else on the roster.

Of note is that the community projection is the most optimistic Ichiro forecast of anything out there. It's higher than Bill James, higher than ZiPS, higher than Marcel, higher than CHONE, higher than MINER, higher than THT, and so much higher than PECOTA that it's looking down on PECOTA from above and smushing its tiny body between its fingers. I don't know how meaningful this is, but once again, given what our lineup's going to look like, this is a case where we could really stand to be right. If Ichiro reverted to, say, 2005 form, then that would be really bad news. For us.



AB: 400 (338)
2B: 20 (17)
3B: 1 (1)
HR: 18 (20)
HBP: 3 (1)
BB:  50 (43)
K: 107 (107)
SB: 4 (4)
CS: 2 (1)
GB%: 41 (39)

.253 (.234)
OBP: .340 (.319)
SLG: .441 (.467)
IsoPa: .087 (.085)
IsoPo: .188 (.234)

Projected K%: 23.6%
K%, 2006-2007: 29.6%

Clearly, some of you don't believe that Wilkerson's two most recent seasons in Texas tell us very much about his ability. I'd certainly hope they don't, since they weren't very good, but we're talking about 750 plate appearances in a friendly ballpark, here. That's a fair sample. I'm not going to call the community wrong outright, since Wilkerson has posted K% rates this low before, but that was back during his peak, and for a guy to get better while moving from Arlington to Safeco...well, that would be unusual.

Anyway, the Wilkerson forecast isn't too bad. If he can slug in the mid-.400's while drawing some walks, then we'll grow to like his bat, even if the casual fan doesn't. Nobody's wild about his defense, but like the guy who stole Sharon Tate's newspaper, Wilkerson's mediocre glovework should be able to avoid the spotlight given the much more egregious offense taking place nearby.

Warning: major collapse potential. Hurry up, Wlad.


AB: 458 (548)
2B: 20 (26)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 5 (6)
HBP: 2 (1)
BB:  50 (63)
K: 52 (57)
SB: 1 (0)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 51 (51)

.280 (.314)
OBP: .355 (.381)
SLG: .357 (.394)
IsoPa: .074 (.067)
IsoPo: .077 (.080)

The only difference - the only difference - between Vidro's 2007 and his projected 2008 is a BABIP regression from an extraordinary .342 to a much more normal .308. Somebody hold me.

Of note is that the community is actually more pessimistic about Vidro than all but the MINER forecast. The other systems seem to think he's got a little more power in his bat than we do. To those systems, I ask: what?


AB: 177 (173)
2B: 5 (3)
3B: 1 (0)
HR: 1 (2)
HBP: 2 (1)
BB:  14 (10)
K: 34 (35)
SB: 13 (7)
CS: 5 (5)
GB%: 54 (61)

.255 (.277)
OBP: .315 (.321)
SLG: .307 (.329)
IsoPa: .060 (.043)
IsoPo: .052 (.052)

Willie's 90th percentile PECOTA projection has him hitting two home runs.


AB: 116 (113)
2B: 6 (8)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 1 (1)
HBP: 2 (4)
BB:  8 (7)
K: 19 (17)
SB: 0 (0)
CS: 0 (1)
GB%: 45 (38)

.272 (.301)
OBP: .333 (.363)
SLG: .364 (.398)
IsoPa: .061 (.062)
IsoPo: .091 (.097)

Yeah, that seems about right, although with a sample as small as 116 at bats the variance can be huge. We fell in love with Burke last year for being either (A) the best backup catcher of all time, or (B) the best backup catcher since Tom Lampkin, but the fact of the matter is that he's actually not real good, as one could infer from his minor league .724 OPS. Our affection will help gloss over some of his shortcomings, as will his limited playing time, but I wouldn't count on a repeat season. Backup catchers generally only have one of those. (Or in Burke's case, two.)

Fun fact: over 247 Major League at bats, Burke has a career line drive rate of 26.3%. He's like the curator of small sample size exhibitions everywhere. Also, between him and Charlton Jimerson, this team has two of the best personal stories in baseball.

MIKE MORSE: (2007 stats not shown)

AB: 146
2B: 8
3B: 1
HR: 4
HBP: 2
BB:  11
K: 29
SB: 2
CS: 1
GB%: 46

OBP: .346
SLG: .430
IsoPa: .057
IsoPo: .142

Note that these projections were filled out before we knew that Morse would start the season with a fairly regular job. One thing's for sure: Mike Morse Mania is alive and well in the Seattle blogosphere community. I'm still not entirely sure why he gets so much love, but this is a pretty optimistic projection for a guy with a career .720 minor league OPS. Of course, part of that's probably the .338 BABIP. Knock just a couple hits off the forecast and he doesn't look so rosy. Given that he's 6'20 with legs that go on for days (rawr), do you think Mike's as embarrassed by his lack of power as I am?


AB: 113 (174)
2B: 4 (9)
3B: 1 (2)
HR: 0 (0)
HBP: 1 (2)
BB:  8 (11)
K: 18 (24)
SB: 4 (10)
CS: 2 (2)
GB%: 48 (43)

.251 (.253)
OBP: .307 (.303
SLG: .306 (.328)
IsoPa: .056 (.050
.055 (.075)



AB: 216
2B: 10
3B: 1
HR: 10
HBP: 2
BB:  16
K: 51
SB: 3
CS: 2
GB%: 42

OBP: .320
SLG: .459
IsoPa: .057

In my head, this is what Wlad does after he's called up on August 1st to become the everyday RF. Why don't I have him becoming the everyday DH? Because in my fantasy world, by the beginning of August that job will already belong to


AB: 206
2B: 12
3B: 0
HR: 9
HBP: 2
BB:  21
K: 35
SB: 1
CS: 1
GB%: 41

OBP: .346
SLG: .465
IsoPa: .072

Behold the next player for whom my love of his offense borders on the irrational. There are all kinds of questions surrounding Jeff Clement's future in the big leagues, but when I close my eyes and try to envision what he'll eventually bring to the M's, all I can see are walks and home runs to right field. Obviously I want him to be able to stick behind the plate, but if he can get his work done in Tacoma while Vidro's struggling in Seattle, then this is the guy I want to have DH'ing down the stretch. Provided, of course, that his bat is ready. Which you guys clearly think it is. The sooner Clement's able to put up these numbers, the sooner I'll be able to quit trying to like Raul Ibanez.