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Community Projection Results: Richie Sexson

The second in the series as we work our way around the diamond. Which, incidentally, Richie didn't do nearly enough. Once again, 2007 numbers are listed in parentheses.

AB: 454 (434)
2B: 24 (21)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 24 (21)
HBP: 4 (5)
BB: 52 (51)
K: 119 (100)
SB: 0 (1)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 43 (48)

BA: .247 (.205)
OBP: .329 (.295)
SLG: .457 (.399)
IsoPa: .082 (.090)
IsoPo: .210 (.194)

As expected, you guys think Richie's a pretty solid bounce-back candidate. Not necessarily in terms of playing time - the projected at bats are down ~20% from his usual, implying an injury or a short leash - but when it comes to the rate stats, your forecasts jive pretty well with the stuff that's already out there.

Note, however, that the bounce-back is due almost entirely to a higher projected BABIP. Richie's .217 was the lowest in baseball last year, and presumably boosted by a few more line drives and some better luck, the community has him coming out at .283 in 2008. This pushes him up to a far more respectable and far less embarrassing batting line, one that would probably be good enough to get him off the casual fan's shit list (if that's ever possible. One for the philosophers, I suppose).

There's a good way and a bad way to look at this. The good way is that, with a .786 OPS, Richie would actually be helping this team score runs, a far cry from whatever it was he did in 2007. It could even conceivably leave him as *sigh* the most productive hitter in the lineup. The bad way is that, even with the rebound, Richie would still be one of the worst overall first basemen in the league, something we could really stand to not have be the case this year. We could use a return to '05/'06 levels like you wouldn't believe, but if that's not going to happen, then it puts that much more pressure on everyone else. Man, I'm really not looking forward to watching us try to score runs.

Richie Sexson needs to produce, and he needs to produce immediately. If he doesn't, the M's won't succeed and he'll quickly find himself out of a job in a contract season. I won't go so far as to say that our fate this year rests on Richie's shoulders, because that would be stupid, but I will say that the magnitude of his bounce-back will be one of the most significant factors in determining how many games the team wins.

I know things are kind of complicated between us, Richie, what with the booing and all. This is your chance to make it better. Win us back.