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Weaver Community Projection Results

IP: 187.3
R: 106
H: 205 (9.8 H/9)
2B: 44
3B: 5
HR: 28 (1.4 HR/9)
BB: 50 (2.4 BB/9)
HBP: 10
K: 118 (5.7 K/9)
RA: 5.11
FIP: 4.87
XERA: 4.77
ERC: 4.57

A little additional fun with math, for the hell of it: the league-average RA for AL starters last year was 5.00. Safeco reduces the average pitcher's ERA by about 0.30 points. Putting those two factoids together, we've got the community projecting a ~5.45 RA for Weaver in a neutral park, 9% worse than the average. All that for just eight million dollars! I know the money doesn't matter since it wasn't going to be spent on anything else, but in future years when that little bit is forgotten, people are going to look back on this and wonder.

Anyway, the only significant differences between our projection and Weaver's 2006 season are in hit and homer frequencies. And with a .321 BABIP and 14.9% HR/FB rate last year, that's not surprising. I wonder if people subconsciously regressed stats to the mean like this before Voros McCracken.