144 of you have spoken.
BA: .260 (0.016)
OBP: .343 (0.018)
SLG: .511 (0.035)
IsoPa: .083 (0.009)
IsoPo: .249 (0.023)
(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the standard deviation is listed in parentheses.)
And the picture that's orange because I don't know why:
This is along the lines of what I think is going to happen - Sexson staves off decline by adding a few walks and extra-base hits, but doesn't return to being the terrific hitter he was in 2005. What I don't agree with, however, is that only 10% of contributors projected a sub-.800 OPS. It seems to me that Sexson has arguably the highest collapse potential on the team, and that isn't reflected in the spreadsheet. Nevertheless, the average comes out looking fine, even if the distribution seems awry. I don't know if these things are even cut out for PECOTA-esque probability levels anyway. What matters is that, in truth, Sexson's a lot more likely to regress than he is to improve.
Tomorrow morning we begin projecting the unprojectable Jose Lopez. Will the power come back? Will it stay the same? Will it get worse? Will it disappear completely as the only extra-base hit Jose gets all year is on a slow roller where the entire infield converges and the second baseman trips over the ball and falls into the pitcher who accidentally spikes him in the head and everyone calls for an ambulance while Jose sprints for third? Hell if I know. What am I, psychic? I just like playing with spreadsheets.