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Johjima Community Projection Results

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The spreadsheet's still open for edit, but updates have slowed to a snail's pace, meaning pretty much everyone who wants to participate (140+ people so far) has already done so. Making this a good time to share the mean results:

AB: 493
H: 143
2B: 26
3B: 1
HR: 20
BB: 31
HBP: 9
K: 51
BA: .291 (.017)
OBP: .344 (.019)
SLG: .468 (.032)
IsoPo: .177 (.020)
IsoPa: .053 (.010)

For those of you who're more visually inclined:

(The little bars above each column correspond to the sample standard deviation, with values of .025, .027, and .037, respectively.)

As an average, the community thinks Kenji's in line for a slight improvement going forward. While the batting average stays the same, the forecast calls for a 57% increase in walk rate and an 11% isolated power boost. While that might be unusual for most 31 year old catchers, Kenji is still adapting to the league, so if he begins to show more power in 2007 - which isn't exactly unprecedented - pitchers could very easily start working around him a little bit more, leading to more free passes. I imagine as far as the walk rate is concerned, there's also a little subconscious regression to the mean taking place, since his was one of the lowest in the league last year.

Kenji Johjima is a really good catcher, and if it weren't for Safeco, a lot more people would know it. If he gets any better he's a borderline star, and even if he stays the same or gets a little worse going forward, he's still a great deal at the price. Look elsewhere for your 2007 Collapse Potential.

Up next: Richie Sexson. Spreadsheet should be open and available by late morning tomorrow.