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Community Projection: Felix

I'm about to send out invitations to access this spreadsheet. So you know ahead of time, pitcher projections are going to be different than last year's as well - along with FIP, ERA, and all that good stuff, we're also looking for hits, doubles, triples, etc. I know it sounds a little picky and weird, but we have a good reason for doing it this way, trust us. They won't impact anything on each individual spreadsheet, but they'll be important at the end, so we don't want you thinking up random numbers because you don't know what else to do. To help out, here's a little background info:

2006 AL Rates:

2B/9: 1.92
3B/9: 0.17

Safeco's 2B park factor is 94 (6% below the league average), and its 3B park factor is 72.

So use that information, along with your knowledge of each pitcher's background/profile, to come up with appropriate numbers. Don't be afraid to keep tinkering until your calculated run results are satisfying.

Also, so you know, XERA and ERC are just two more ways of estimating ERA based on component statistics (you already know RA and FIP). The equations:


(.575 * H/9) + (.94 * HR/9) + (.28 * BB/9) - (.01 * K/9) - Normalizing Factor (usually ~2.77)


(((H + BB + HBP) * PTB)/(BFP * IP)) * 9 - .56

PTB = .89 * (1.255 * (H - HR) + 4 * HR) + .475 * (BB + HBP)

Go nuts.