Well, this was supposed to go up last night but our "scheduled outage" hit earlier than expected and now I'm pressed for time, so I have to be really quick. Nothing I can do about it.
Biggest Contribution: Raul Ibanez, +33.0%
Biggest Suckfest: Gil Meche, -51.5%
Most Important Hit: Johjima double, +28.2%
Most Important Pitch: Blake single, -16.7%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -23.9%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +40.3%
You read that right - Gil Meche finished at -51.5%, the rough WE equivalent of a lost game. The Mariners essentially had to win twice last night just to cover for the guy on the hill. It was as bad as I've ever seen him pitch, and if not for Tim McClelland getting in the way of Grady Sizemore's grounder down the line we might still be in the fourth inning. Between that and the Indians running themselves completely out of the first, Gil was lucky that it wasn't worse. That's incredible to me. I am so, so sorry for ever thinking that he might actually turn it around this year.
You have to wonder if Mariner managers have taken to motivating their lineups every fifth day by pointing out that Gil's getting the start. Looking at his run support, the numbers certainly seem to bear that out. Between 2004-2006, Gil Meche has received an average of 5.20 runs of support per start, while everyone else has gotten just 4.29. Put another way, over the last 2+ seasons the offense has improved by 21% when Gil's on the hill. I can't speak to the statistical significance of this percentage, but it's big and it makes sense - nobody likes losing, and when Gil's pitching you have to work really, really hard to avoid it. The only other explanation I can come up with is that Gil tends to face off against weaker pitchers (both in the back of their respective rotations), but still, 21% worse? I'm skeptical. It's like the offense enjoys scoring runs as much for Gil Meche as they didn't for Ryan Franklin. Maybe there's a little something to look forward to in his starts after all.
Carl Everett is 3-30 so far this season. The following is a list of binomial probabilities that a guy with the listed batting average would have a slump in which he collected just three hits in 30 at bats:
.220: 7.8%
.230: 6.2%
.240: 4.8%
.250: 3.7%
.260: 2.9%
.300: 0.9%
Using a 95% confidence interval, Everett tops out at .239. Which is to say, based on his results to date, the best case scenario is that Carl Everett is actually a .239 hitter who's just struggling a little bit right now. That's not unreasonable; his BA dropped 15 points to .251 between 2004-2005, so why not expect the decline to continue? This is pretty much just a numerically complicated way of saying that Carl Everett sucks and Roberto Petagine doesn't.
I've decided that, starting now, when I have to cut the recap short I'll post three different questions to spark discussion. So here goes:
- How long do you give Adrian Beltre to turn things around before you give up on him?
- Based on what we've seen so far, where would you rank Kenji Johjima on a list of the game's best (active) catchers?
- Will Eddie Guardado be closing ballgames for the Mariners in August?