...and so does the rest of the league. Courtesy of Replacement Level Yankees:
Diamond Mind: 81-81
PECOTA: 85-77
ZiPS: 77-85
Over 3000 projected seasons, the Mariners won the AL West 188 times and took the Wild Card on another 239 occasions.
Also worth considering this necessary caveat:
As always, I advise anyone looking at these to take them with a ton of salt, as it is impossible to project how everything will shake out, and injuries, roster changes, and over/under performance will end up changing things in ways that cannot be prognosticated.
Sounds about right to me.