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Fun With Hitter "Projections"

Same deal as yesterday, with the ranges presented being one standard deviation above and below where they were in 2005. Final season numbers falling outside of the range probably (but not definitely) indicates a real improvement or decline.

Ichiro: .285/.332/.417 - .321/.368/.455
Reed: .234/.302/.330 - .274/.342/.374
Ibanez: .262/.337/.416 - .298/.373/.456
Sexson: .244/.350/.520 - .282/.388/.562
Beltre: .237/.285/.393 - .273/.321/.433
Everett: .231/.291/.413 - .271/.331/.457 (not park adjusted)
Lopez: .216/.250/.344 - .278/.314/.414
Betancourt: .226/.266/.337 - .286/.326/.403
Bloomquist: .229/.261/.303 - .285/.317/.363
Lawton: .247/.345/.389 - .289/.387/.435 (not park adjusted)
Morse: .248/.319/.338 - .308/.379/.402

Johjima not shown, for what should be pretty obvious reasons.

As a handy rule of thumb, younger players (<30) should finish closer to their high projections, while older players (>33) should finish closer to their low ones. Fortunately, this is a pretty young team, and the only player I see with any real crater potential is Carl Everett, who's redundant with Matt Lawton anyway. I suppose there's a chance that Johjima turns into a total bust, or that Sexson re-injures himself and misses a lot of the season, but I wouldn't put more than a 3-4% chance of either of those happening, so they're not really worth discussing in the context of this post.

Yes, there are ways I could make this better. No, I'm not really interested in implementing (m)any of them, since there are a lot of other people who do a much better job in the projection business. This is just something to tide us all over until the PECOTA lines are made available.