clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fun With Numbers

New, 5 comments

We have two well-established theorems about pitching in Safeco Field:

  1. Safeco has an inherent reducing effect on BABIP
  2. Safeco has an inherent reducing effect on home runs (League average: 11% of fly balls go for homers. Mariner pitchers the last two years: 10.2%)
Even before you factor in the good team defense, we can infer two things: pitchers who don't miss many bats and pitchers who allow a bunch of fly balls will benefit the most from tossing half their innings in Seattle. So, naturally, I was curious - among those pitchers available on the free agent market this year, who would stand to improve the most simply by virtue of calling Safeco Field home?

Here's your chart. The players we're looking for will reside in the lower left-hand section:

The ideal candidates look to have a GB/FB below 1.00 and a strikeout rate below 15%. With that in mind, here are the names (in no particular order):

Relievers:

  1. Felix Rodriguez
  2. Matt Herges
  3. Shigetoshi Hasegawa
  4. Tom Martin
  5. Gabe White

    (Just missed: Jose Mesa)

Starters:
  1. Jarrod Washburn
  2. Brett Tomko
  3. Brian Anderson
  4. Jose Lima
  5. Paul Byrd
  6. Jamie Moyer
  7. Ismael Valdez

    (Just missed: Pedro Astacio)
All of them quality pitchers worth acquiring this winter? Hardly. Just a list of guys who would see the most substantial ERA improvement by pitching in Safeco.