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NLCS Game 5

Because that was the kind of game for which Win Expectancy charts were meant in the first place:

Top Five Most Important Plays:

  1. Pujols homer, 73.0%
  2. Berkman homer, 37.3%
  3. Grudzielanek single, 19.4%
  4. Burke singles, 13.2%
  5. Ausmus double, 10.4%
(What is this?)

You're undoubtedly going to hear a bunch of "analysts" fawning all over David Eckstein for his never-say-die attitude and ability to prolong last night's game in the ninth inning, but note that his single and theft of second base (2.5%) were of less importance to his team than Edmonds' walk (3.6%). David Eckstein had one hell of a season at the top of the Cardinal lineup, but the fact that Lyons and Brennaman were talking about his at bat against Lidge while Pujols was rounding the bases speaks volumes about just how bad announcing has gotten over the past few years.

Brad Lidge is beginning to show signs of fatigue after a busy October, but the Astros still have Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens going up against Mark Mulder and Matt Morris in Games 6 and 7. Even if you give St. Louis 60% odds of winning each game - which, to me, is way too high - Houston still has a two-in-three chance of making it to the Series.

Last night's blast by Albert Pujols was one of the most important single events of the entire season, but a winning effort by either of Houston's other two aces and it's rendered meaningless. Don't lose sight of the fact that the Astros are still in control of this series.