Signed RHP Carl Pavano to a One Year, $1.5M Contract

The Indians are facing a difficult obstacle in 2009: replace three-fifths of last year's starting rotation, not only in performance but innings. Only three starting pitchers on the 40-man roster threw more than 100 major-league innings last year: Cliff Lee (223.2), Fausto Carmona (120.7) and Jeremy Sowers (121.0). So even though there is talented starting depth on the roster, endurance is going to be a problem. One way to get around that is to add more depth, which this signing was designed to do.

Rather than go after an innings-eating pitcher with less ability, the Indians decided to purchase a lottery ticket; in other words, pay a little for the remote possibility of a big payday. Pavano hasn't pitched a full season since his last year in Florida, and even before that has had problems staying on the mound. Since July of 2005, he's only thrown 45.7 innings. Hence the Indians wrote into the contract an extensive incentive structure (scroll down) based on starts and innings pitched. If he somehow makes 35 or more starts and pitches more than 235.0 innings, he'll have earned $5.3M in bonuses.  Even a more realistic season will net Pavano much more in bonuses than his base salary.

Even if we make that leap of faith and assume Pavano can be an everyday starter, what kind of performance will the Indians be getting? I don't think even the Indians know. Pavano might be extremely motivated, he might be relieved to have moved on from New York, and he might finally be healthy, but that doesn't change the fact that he's essentially been out of baseball for 3.5 seasons. The way the contract is written, there's not a lot the Indians can lose, but their odds of getting quality innings from Pavano are likewise remote.

Designated 1B Michael Aubrey for Assignment

The Indians still had an option year on Aubrey because of all his injuries, but his future with the team had long since been derailed. Michael actually had a relatively healthy 2008, and finally got some at-bats in the majors, but he only posted a .746 OPS for Buffalo, not good enough for a 26-year-old first baseman.

Traded RHP Chris Archer, RHP Jeff Stevens, and LHP John Gaub to the Chicago Cubs for IF Mark DeRosa

Jeff Stevens should be ready to contribute next year in the bullpen, but the other two are quite a ways away, and neither were considered top prospects. So it looks like the Cubs did this deal to save some money, as DeRosa is slated to make $5.5M this season. Away from Wrigley and in the American League, I'd expect DeRosa to be about league-average offensively, which will play at either second or third.

DeRosa had the best offensive season of his career in 2008, posting a 118 ERA+ as a everyday player for the Cubs. He played 20 games at four different positions for Chicago, but his main position was second base. He's never spent a full season at just one position; at times he's been more of an outfielder, a third baseman, or a second baseman. He's not going to play much outfield for the Indians, so that leaves second, third, or a supersub role.

Anthony Castrovince believes DeRosa was acquired to play third, which I don't like, especially if you consider the Gutierrez-Valbuena deal earlier this offseason. If the long-term configuration is Peralta at third, Cabrera at shortstop and Valbuena or Barfield at second, then it makes sense to move Peralta now and not mess around with a temporary fix at third. If DeRosa is just insurance at third in case Peralta has defensive difficulties, then fine.

What this move does mean is that Andy Marte is gone. Ever since last Opening Day it's been apparent that the Indians don't believe he can play; Eric Wedge half-heartedly spotted him at third through the spring, and by the time circumstances gave Marte everyday playing time, he'd been on the bench for two-thirds the season.

Signed RHP Kerry Wood to a Two Year, $20.5M Contract ($11M 2011 Option)

The 2011 Option will vest if Wood completes 55 games in 2009 or 2010. If he doesn't, the Indians can still pick up the option. Meeting the vesting option certainly isn't a given; 10 closers topped that mark in the majors last season, including Wood (with 56). Finishing games isn't the same as making 30 starts; teams can be playing either too or well or too poorly to use their closer that often. And if Wood would happen to miss as little as a week due to injury, he might not be able to make that milestone; he barely made it last year as the closer for the best team in the National League.

Paying $10M to a pitcher who probably won't throw more than 65 innings in a season looks like overkill if you figure that Wood is going to be worth about 1.5 wins to the Indians. Of course, consider the contributions that Joe Borowski and company made in the ninth inning last year, your perspective changes a bit. On a marginal basis, the improvement should be substantial.

Wood's 2008 peripherals (66.3 IP, 54 H, 84 SO, 18 BB, 3 HR) were among the best in baseball. His average fastball last season was 95 mph, and his slider sat around 83 mph. In other words, he can blow his fastball by a hitter even if he's looking for it, and if he throws his slider to a hitter expecting his fastball, that ball isn't going to be hit. The Indians usually don't have an opportunity to sign these types of players.

The elephant in the room is, of course, Kerry's extensive injury history. Shoulder problems derailed his promising career as a starter, and he's going to be pitching the rest of his career, however long that is, with a torn rotator cuff. The last two players the Indians have given quasi-market contracts to (Jake Westbrook, Travis Hafner) have sustained major injuries soon after signing, so although this contract isn't a long-term risk, the team doesn't have the financial wherewithal to shrug off another 10 million dollars' worth of non-productive talent during the middle of a season.

Signed RHP Tomokazu Ohka to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training

He has little chance of making the Indians' rotation, but Ohka's an interesting story nonetheless. He started his professional career in the Japan Central League, pitching with the Yokohama Bay Stars from 1994-1998. After the 1998 season, he was purchased by the Boston Red Sox. After a successful season in the high minors (including a no-hitter while with Pawtucket), he got a cup of coffe with the Red Sox in 1999. He bounced between the Boston and Pawtucket rotations in 2000 and 2001, and was traded with current Indian Rich Rundles to the Expos for Ugueth Urbina at the 2001 deadline.

It was with Montreal that Ohka had his best seasons, becoming a pretty good starter for Les Expos. He missed a considerable portion of the 2004 season after a batted ball fractured his right forearm. He apparently lost some velocity after that, and with his stuff not very impressive to begin with, his effectiveness began to suffer. He was dealt to Milwaukee in 2005 after showing up manager Frank Robinson when he went to the mound to remove him  from a game. After an injury-marred 2006 season, the Brewers non-tendered him. He signed with Toronto, but was released half-way through the season because of ineffectiveness. He hasn't seen the majors since. Last season he threw 135.2 innings with AAA Charlotte, but wasn't all that impressive, allowing 146 hits and 63 earned runs (4.18 ERA).

Ohka's fastball, last I saw him, topped out in the high 80s, and he would rely on his breaking pitches to get opposing batters off balance. He has a pretty good idea of how to attack hitters, but his stuff isn't that good and his control isn't precise enough to make up for it. The Indians probably see him as a starter they can stash in Columbus*  in case they need a pitcher in a pinch. On my mental starter depth chart, he's at least eighth or ninth.

*Man, it's going to be tough getting used to typing in Columbus instead of Buffalo.

The Indians have ruled out committing to a multiple-year contract for Orlando Hudson because of injury concerns. Which in effect says that they aren't going to sign him, for someone else is going to give him a multiple-year contract. For a team that saw their two biggest investments (Jake Westbrook and Travis Hafner) come down with major injuries last year, perhaps this is understandable. Hudson broke his wrist in August, and players with wrist injuries tend to take a while to get back to their former hitting prowess.

The problem with removing Hudson from consideration is that there isn't really a second all-around free agent second option at second base.  Mark Grudzielanek and Ray Durham would probably be OK on one-year deals, but both are old by the position standards. And is signing either of those two worth taking the trouble to move Jhonny Peralta to third for?