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In-Season Batter Regression Tool Updated
click to enlarge Earlier this year I released a tool that allows you to quickly calculate what a batter's offensive line might look like if they were sporting the same BABIP and HR/FB this year as their 3-year averages. The tool isn't a competitor to ZiPS or any other projection tool, rather it...
Regress, Regress I Say! (Complete with In-Season Batter Regression Tool)
(Click here to enlarge) (Thanks to J-Doug and commenter hairball for helping me find an error in the calculator. Data and post have been updated accordingly) So much is driven early on by small sample sizes that it can be easy to get overly excited about a batters hot or cold start. After only...
Predicting the Next Jose Bautista: Part I, Explaining HR Change
Note: Before bothering to read this, note that the model below is basically a tautology and, therefore, worthless. Thanks to Tom Tango, Sky Kalkman, and Colin Wyers for pointing this out. This is a great example of getting too wrapped up in your own analysis and not stepping back to say "hey, does...
Have the Indians been lucky, good, or a little of both so far?
via (Click to enlarge) The Indians sport the second best run differential (+17) in the American League and sit atop the AL Central, scoring just over 5.0 R/G while only allowing 3.5 R/G. Last year's squad finished in 4th place in the AL Central with a run differential of -106. Cleveland's start...
Identifying Candidates for Regression
There are two main areas you should look at when judging whether a pitcher is due for regression (either good or bad). First, you look for extreme values in areas that we know are under little or no control of the pitcher. BABIP (average value for SP = .296, RP = .293) is the premier example. If a...
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