Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Spencer Hall's Sports Meme Power Rankings

Fun With Numbers

It's been too long since the last time I properly extolled the many virtues of Fangraphs. Well, today gives me good reason - just Wednesday David Appelman added a new feature.

I put up something new today which I think is very cool. Under each pitcher page, in the very bottom table, you can now see the percentage of each type of pitch a player threw and its average velocity. These stats are available from 2005-2007 and will be updated daily when the season starts.
...
FB: Fastball, CT: Cutter, CB: Curveball, SL: Slider, CH: Changeup, SF: Split-fingered Fastball, KN: Knuckleball, XX: Unidentified, PO: Pickoff Attempt

The data comes from Baseball Info Solutions, and since they track nearly every pitch of the season, this helps conquer some of the sample size issues you run into with Josh Kalk's PITCHf/x tool (among other, less important things). So, without further ado, here are a few bits that I found interesting:

  • JJ has all but abandoned his slider and changeup and become a two-pitch pitcher. 92.7% of his pitches last year were fastballs and splitters, as opposed to 76.3% in 2006. This is good news, because JJ's slider and changeup are bad. They're useful only as show-me pitches to use every other game or so.

  • Brandon Morrow threw 80% fastballs. Fangraphs will include this information in its leaderboards before long, but for the time being, we're left going through individual player pages, and so far Brian Bruney's the only guy I've found with a higher percentage (82.2%). I don't care what anybody says - Morrow's secondary pitches cannot possibly be ready for a feature role after being left to atrophy to such an extent. They still need a lot of work.

  • Felix threw 57% fastballs, which is right in line with most of the other ace pitchers in the league. It's not the frequency that's the problem - it's the predictable patterns.

  • Felix also threw a ton more sliders, at the expense of his curveball and changeup. It's no wonder lefties give him so much trouble. In order to become the dominant ace we all expect, he either needs to get better command of his two-seamer, or he needs to get his changeup back to what it was in 2005.

  • Felix's average fastball was 0.8mph faster than Morrow's. Felix is a starter.

  • Like JJ, Erik Bedard is a two-pitch pitcher (FB + CB = 92.1%). Like JJ, Erik Bedard's two pitches are very very good.

  • Why did Miguel Batista go from being a groundball pitcher in 2006 to a bit of a flyball pitcher in 2007? Possibly because he threw 50% more cutters, which tend to be hit in the air. It also appears to be a more difficult pitch with which to make contact, given the bump in his strikeout rate. I wonder if this is Miguel adapting his style to the ballpark.

  • Horacio Ramirez also tried throwing more cutters and fewer fastballs. It didn't work as well.

  • Based on observation (rather than numerical analysis), it seems like the typical velocity improvement that comes from moving into the bullpen is around 1-2mph on the fastball, and sometimes a little more on the offspeed stuff. Obviously not everyone is affected the same way. Shawn Chacon, for example, gained 3-4mph, while Aaron Sele gained nothing. But it does appear reasonably consistent across the board.

There's a bunch more stuff in there, but I'll let you play around with it by yourself. In the future I'd be interested to know the average annual standard deviation in individual pitch frequency so we can have a better idea of when a pitcher's actually changed his approach. If a guy's fastball rate goes from 60% one year to 63% the next, is that significant, or random fluctuation?

That's for another time, though. For now, we have more than enough to keep ourselves entertained. Between this and Josh Kalk's PITCHf/x stuff, it's incredible to see how far we've come in just a few short years. That this kind of information is readily available to whoever wants it is just mind-blowing.

0 recs  |  Comment 40 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Good Lord.
"Felix's average fastball was 0.8mph faster than Morrow's. Felix is a starter."

Felix IS king.

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 11:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There's more
Felix' average Fastball: 95.6 mph
Putz' average Fastball: 94.7 mph

by vj on Mar 14, 2008 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Understatement of the young season
Horacio Ramirez also tried throwing more cutters and fewer fastballs. It didn't work as well.

Can we have an informal "guess HoRam's next team and salary, plus stats" competition?

by seattlebruin on Mar 14, 2008 11:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Washington Generals
zero points, zero rebounds, zero assists. $16,000 per year.

Note: I actually typo'd "year" as "yar" at first, but now that I've corrected it I think I like per "yar" better. Sounds "pirate-ey".

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jerome James
Season -
Minutes - 5
Points - 4
Rebounds - 3

Salary - $5.8M

Salary per point - $1.45M per point

At that rate, LeBron James salary - $3.674B/yr

by seattlebruin on Mar 14, 2008 12:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And to think some people were upset
tthat the Sonics didn't re-sign him. Thanks for saving our asses Isiah!
"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This happens in
molecular biology every couple of years. A new technology comes out that generates a shitload of cool data that no one quite knows what to do with fo a little while.

by Mere Tantalisers on Mar 14, 2008 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's fo sho!
"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In terms of his mind,
I think Batista is in an elite class.  He reminds me of David Cone with a weaker skill set in his ability to adapt to situations.  He is capable of, and not frightened by, adjusting his approach.

by Sec 108 on Mar 14, 2008 12:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Would be nice
if he ever bothered to throw the ball, period.

I feel like I should nap in between his pitches.

by seattlebruin on Mar 14, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't Bedard a slow worker too?
"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True, but if your stuff is barely ok
You may as well go out of the zone and let players get themselves out.

by Sec 108 on Mar 14, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember what happened when
Ryan Franklin threw strikes?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/phranklin/

Some pitchers shouldn't throw strikes.

by Llewdor on Mar 14, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm probably gonna be alone on this one
But I see Felix's problem being where he puts his fastballs.  If he put them routinely through the knees, it didn't matter if people knew it was coming, they'd still only be able to hit wormburners.  I know its popular to say he doesn't have the command for that, but thats what will make him an ace pitcher, getting that command.  And he doesn't even have to worry about sides of the plate, just through the knees.

by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 1:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If he develops that command, great
But as long as he doesn't have it, he needs to throw the fastball less predictably.

by Llewdor on Mar 14, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
Two seamer = Fastball.  I don't even know why Felix messes around with a 4 seamer.

by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 1:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

sorry
That was supposed to nicely nest.

by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff
This is awesome, I love looking at stuff like this.

As far as fastball percentage, I found one guy higher than Morrow/Bruney - Bob Howry.

  1. 82.6
  2. 82.8
  3. 86.2
"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by ConorGlassey on Mar 14, 2008 1:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Two words
Mariano Rivera.

Fastball: 26.7%
Cutter: 73.2%

Considering that a cutter is essentially a fastball, it can accurately be accurately said that Mariano Rivera throws a fastball 99.9% of the time.  And he's still going to the hall of fame.  

by davidcameron on Mar 14, 2008 2:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm surprised that his cutter is only 73%.
I would have guessed somewhere in the 85% range.
"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since every Yankees game ever is on TV ...
it seemed like he was trying to mix in a few more two seamers breaking the other way.  Back in the day, though, I'm sure it would've been 90-95% cutters.

by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus his cutter is so famous (or infamous)
that it's all you hear about.
"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?"

by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rivera's cutter/fastball mix
Rivera does throw the cutter about 90% of the time.  The one big flaw I've found in the BIS data so far is that they have a hard time identifying the cutter correctly, not just for Rivera, but for most pitchers.  They confuse it quite often with the slider or regular fastball.  Otherwise the data tends to be reasonably accurate.

by Mike Fast on Mar 17, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Morphing Miguel
Jeffrey... wouldn't Miguel's ability to adapt be further substatiated if his pitch selections were different on the road than if they were at home? Greg Maddux would be an interesting case as well then going from Wrigley Field to PetCo.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Mar 15, 2008 3:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The leaderboard's up
among pitchers with 40+ innings, Felix's average fastball was the third-fastest.

Morrow's FB% was actually tenth-highest in baseball.

Erik Bedard threw more curveballs than everyone but Jeremy Affeldt.

by Jeff on Mar 16, 2008 4:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If we assume that MLB 2K8
accurately models reality, breaking pitches should be easier to throw than any other pitches.

by Llewdor on Mar 17, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that's not the case...
consider my entire worldview shattered.

by kidlondon on Mar 17, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bedard's pitch mix
Bedard's not really a two-pitch pitcher.  This is another case where you've got to watch what the BIS data is saying about cutters.  Bedard relies on his cutter to lefties more than his fastball.  He's basically not willing to throw his regular fastball for strikes to lefties.  

To right-handed hitters, Bedard doesn't use his cutter as much because he doesn't need to--his fastball and curve are outstanding to right-handers (-0.03 and -0.04 runs/pitch, respectively).

From the PITCHf/x data, I have Bedard's pitch mix to right-handed hitters in 2007 as 34% fastballs, 24% cutters, 35% curveballs, and 7% changeups.  To left-handed hitters it was 23% fastballs, 45% cutters, 32% curveballs, and 1% changeups.

by Mike Fast on Mar 17, 2008 2:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I appreciate the clarification
wouldn't have thought of that otherwise.

Strange how BIS has trouble identifying the cutter, and it still says that Batista threw it two-fifths of the time. Dude must've been throwing a lot of cutters.

by Jeff on Mar 17, 2008 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cutters
It has trouble with the cutter both ways.  Sometimes identifying too many, sometimes too few.  For example, Brian Bannister is listed by BIS at 8% sliders and 10% cutters, when really he threw 18% sliders and no cutters.  

I've heard that the cutter is hard to identify on video.  I personally have trouble telling anything other than a fastball and curveball apart on video, but I've heard the cutter is tough even for experienced video analysts.

by Mike Fast on Mar 18, 2008 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Max_small
FootbaLL IV (Nov 21st)
Small
The Sabermetrics of Cats

Recent FanPosts

Smell-the-glove_small
OFFTOP 11/19 - The Hand of Fraud
Small
Tony Blengino interview on 710 AM ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove League
Ichirocameron_small
OTFPOTD 11/16: Recipes Edition
Small
Lookout Landing as a communtiy
Small
Royals determined to unload Callaspo...
Ichiro_small
Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now
Small
Xbox LLive, Pt 3
Clemente_small
OT on a friday morning 11/6

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

1_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff