Probability vs. Certainty

I see where they're coming from, but I also definitely see why the average fan would tell them to go fuck themselves and enjoy some baseball.

Which is why posts like this are so valuable - the concept is elusive, but if you sit down and think about it it does make good sense.

And this applies especially to sports fans - for most people, sports is an ESCAPE from things like numbers, probabilities, and bell curves.  They craft a sports narrative that fits the heroic model more than it does the mathematical model, and when presented with the math side of things, they refuse to believe it because it doesn't fit their narrative.

Me, on the other hand, I largely choose to ignore the mathematics - but that doesn't mean I don't value them, or want to learn more about them than what I currently know.  But, most people, as you say, deal in absolutes, so there's no room for alternative narratives in their world.  This doesn't make them retarded, nor is it a weakness; people enjoy things up to the level that makes them happy, and that's fine.  More power to them.

Rather than take the intolerant/elitist approach, point your non-stat friends to posts like Graham's, and some of the USSM stuff - don't demonize, educate.  

Plus, by holding an opinion, they're introducing a confirmation bias into their future discovery of evidence, so even if they learn the truth later they might not believe it.

This is how religion works.  People don't know how the universe functions, so they believe a story that explains it all even though there's no good reason to reach that conclusion.

Statistical probability goes completely over most people's heads because it measures the uncertainty.  Since they can't accept that uncertainty ever exists, any attempt to measure it must therefore be fabrication.  If the outcome of the Superbowl happened as it did, then there must be an explanation as to why, and a typical person will choose an explanation that fits the outcome regardless of whether its supported by any data.

When Billy Beane said "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs", his point was that the outcome of the playoffs, from his point of view, was unexplained variance.  BP's Joe Sheehan has put it better by saying, "In a short series between two playoff calibre teams, any result is reasonably likely."  But since both of these contain explicit recognition of uncertainty, the average person doesn't actually understand what's being said.

Given that the average person doesn't understand any line of reasoning where the outcome is uncertain, is it any surprise when they don't understand the point Graham is making here?  And isn't it scary that we let them vote?

But Baker's got a point.  At the end of they day, they're just predictions.  Adopting an "I'm clearly right and you're wrong...so fuck off" position is extremely hubristic.

Posted by Druv

6:06 PM, Feb 08, 2008
This will likely go down as the worst trade in Mariner history.

I start to wonder what a lot of these people are drinking, because it deserves its own blog.

But at this point, it just seems that you're repeatedly going after them under the premise of... I don't know, what?

I realise that as someone who volunteers over there, I'm biased and all that, but I just don't understand the hostility on your end, even while I acknowledge that there have been some really stupid things said over there recently.

As an example, my main focus in college (before I dropped out to get the hell away from Olympia, so take this with a grain of salt if you so choose,) was urban studies/urban planning. It's something I have studied pretty intensively both in an academic setting and in my own free time. Now, I wouldn't consider myself an expert by any means, but I know my shit pretty well. And I am of the opinion that increasing traffic capacity in order to ease traffic congestion is the wrong way to go about things. I believe this because I have a lot of research and scientific study to back my position. There are people who disagree with me. Many of them are equally well versed in these things, and while I disagree with their position, I am willing to listen with an open mind if they give decent counter arguments and argue their position intelligently. I am not likely to take seriously the position of anyone who's assertion is that adding freeway lanes will ease traffic because, duh, it's just common sense.

My (rather long winded, yikes) point is that it's totally acceptable to dismiss the opinions of people who don't know nearly as much about something as you, especially when those people are using terrible grammar, insulting the intelligence of others, and refusing to acknowledge widely accepted knowledge with little or no evidence to back their positions up. And with as much crap as DMZ, Dave and the other, more well versed posters at USSM (and other places) it shouldn't come as a surprise that they're getting frustrated and testy. I would be, too.  

Dead meme yet? heh

I honestly do believe that some people develop an inherent hatred for mathematical analysis at a young age.  As soon as you ask them to swim in those waters they shut down on you.  It is frustrating, but it is how it goes.

Just for fun, I went through and looked at the M's Pythag vs. actual W/L record for every year of the franchise's history. The two numbers were exactly the same three times, +-1 nine times, +-2 four times, +-3 four times, +-4 three times, +-5 twice, +-6 twice, +-7 three times, and +-9 once. So the Pythag W/L record was within 4 wins or losses 74% of the time. 74% isn't perfect, but it's close enough that I think it's incorrect to call the system busted based on the biggest gap between actual and Pythag W/L records over 31 seasons.  

The coin doesn't know it's in the middle of doing something highly improbable, so the next outcome is unaffected by those circumstances.