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Some Quick Thoughts On Wilkerson

  • Don't pay much attention to all the versatility talk - Wilkerson's being brought in to be the starting right fielder. For all intents and purposes, Adam Jones is no longer a Mariner.

  • Wilkerson's coming in on a small contract ($3m + incentives), and if we weren't the only team offering him a starting job, we were definitely one of the few. So his level of job security should be pretty low. If he's not platooned with Wlad right out of ST, it'll still be a constant possibility, and should Wlad start to tear it up then Wilkerson will probably need to flip out in order to avoid a drop in playing time. Unless the team decides to focus on his veteran status, in which case, um.

  • In his peak, Wilkerson was a strong offensive player. That peak is not coming back. What he is right now is a low-BA bat with above-average power, a patient approach, and a shit-ton of strikeouts. The left-handedness is a valuable asset, as are the walks, but he's not the kind of guy who's ever going to carry the lineup, and he's really close to the end. I'm not going to predict doom and gloom, because I think he could be decent, but if he turns into 2007 Richie Sexson, don't say you weren't warned. It's a very real possibility.

  • Defensively, he used to be all right, having logged a bunch of time in center for the Expos. But over time his body started to come apart, and at this point he's no longer a good glove. I recently called him ~average, but after going through the numbers, I think average is probably his upside. Seems to me he's more like -15 < x < -5, with 0 only attainable if he somehow stays in good health all year. He'll still probably represent a defensive improvement over Guillen, whose numbers slipped due to some lower-body issues.

I don't hate this move. I mean, I hate that it's happening because we're trading Adam Jones, but ignoring everything else, Wilkerson's okay, and might have represented the best RF still on the market. If he can stay healthy enough and take a little advantage of the right field porch, he'll have been a good find at a low price, much like Guillen a year ago. And if he sucks, then in theory we can either give him the boot or send him to the bench.

But with that said, this move is still dangerous. Wilkerson's never going to get back to his peak, but he could very possibly end up a big bag of suck, a black hole in a lineup that already has too many question marks. The benefit of this being a cheap one-year contract is that it won't kill us if we have to let him go, but this year's Mariners are going to need every win they can get, so they can ill afford to run with a problem RF for however long it takes them to get help. For our own sake, we better hope that Wlad takes some major steps forward pretty quick, just to be safe. Because the only guarantee anyone can make about Brad Wilkerson is that he's going to pile up the strikeouts. Everything else is up in the air.

The casual fan is not going to like Brad Wilkerson. Here's hoping he doesn't give us reason to agree with them.

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Wilkerson > Jones
and it's not even close.

He's been through the wars!

by PLU Tim on Jan 31, 2008 5:48 PM PST   0 recs

Hmmm...
I smell a Carl Everett potential clusterphuc.  When he doesn't work out, we'll spend even MORE prospects trying to patch the hole, and let Wlad rot in AAA.  Or on the bench.  Man, if they'd only given Petagine a shot, they probably would still have Captain A-Cab as insurance for the third coming of Lopez' second-half collapse...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Jan 31, 2008 5:52 PM PST   0 recs

PETAGINE!
He made for a hilariously fun trip to Arizona to watch spring training. It's too bad we never gave him a look

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 31, 2008 5:55 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

It's too bad
no team in MLB gave him a chance.

by MfaninAlaska on Jan 31, 2008 6:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I don't see him being Everett-bad (72 OPS+)
but I imagine that we'll be demanding a Wilk-Wlad platoon by June.

by Katal LM on Jan 31, 2008 6:33 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hooray!
I was hoping you would say generally positive things about Wilkerson. I followed him during his Expos days and always liked him, and I'm irrationally pleased that he's a Mariner. If we're going to sign guys on the wrong side of 30, it might as well be guys on the wrong side of 30 that I like.

Call me irrational, but I have a really good feeling about this. If he hits .250 (his career average, on the nose), he'll have an OPS over over .800 - my wild prediction of 2008.

by BakedAK on Jan 31, 2008 6:36 PM PST   0 recs

SPEED HELPS
Wouldn't Patterson be a better choice?  Defense and speed much greater.  Still somewhat young (28) so perhaps his upside is greater?  

Of course the probably could use both and move Raul somewhere.  

SHOULDN"T HAVE TOOK MORE THAN YOU GAVE.

by BOGUS on Jan 31, 2008 6:57 PM PST   0 recs

WilSUCKerson
Jeff, I'm LMAO @ you stinking M's for signing brittle injury prone flop WilSUCKerson to a 1 year $3 million contract. He's not going to help your team.

Are you M's that damn desperate?

It appears Bill Bavasi, Lee Pelekoudas and John McLaren had a few to many drinks when they decided that WilSUCKerson was going to be your versatility saviour and that so called wonderful left-handed bat you think he has...

Well, all you M's will get a real chance now to see how bad he really is.

I saw plenty of his pathetic ass in Texas and I'm glad he's gone.

btw... you stinking M's might just be projected the preseason AL West Cellar Dwellers. You better hope you get Erik Bedard after this.

by hurlerhurley on Jan 31, 2008 7:03 PM PST   0 recs

Heh.
Good one, Hurler.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jan 31, 2008 7:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

yes, I know...
I was wrong. However, I'm not wrong that often.

Stinking M's had a decent season last year. Congrats on 2nd place.

by hurlerhurley on Jan 31, 2008 7:34 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Is that still considered a one word response?
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 11:42 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

If you say that every year, it's bound to be true.
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 11:42 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Awww look everyone...
it thinks it's intelligent!

So cute. :)

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Jan 31, 2008 7:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

don't be mad
just because you have aids

by Mere Tantalisers on Jan 31, 2008 7:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

WilSUCKerson
That's clever. That's like me saying girlyhurley. A brilliant use of the English language.

By the way: Sammy Sosa. That is all.

drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 11:47 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Sexson and Wilkerson in the same lineup
We might break the record for most k's by two teammates...yuck
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jan 31, 2008 7:08 PM PST   0 recs

Wind Power
Its all part of a plan to make Safeco run on renewable energy.  Just install turbines around the plate and no more need to pay the electric bill.

by AIS on Jan 31, 2008 8:27 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Bluegrass Brad!
He can hang out with Jeff Nelson and talk about their favorite country music?  Maybe?

by Deanna on Jan 31, 2008 7:14 PM PST   0 recs

The thing about this
is he's likely to outproduce Sexson, or at least match him and on a 1yr 3mil contract. I mean, at this point, I'll be happy with sexson having a wlkerson type year. Anyways...

by Mere Tantalisers on Jan 31, 2008 7:23 PM PST   0 recs

potential for platoon with wlad....
I know that it has been mentioned before, but Wilkerson's career platoon splits are slightly better against lefties; .800 ops against rhp, and .819 ops against lhp.  And looking year to year at his splits, '06 is the only season where his platoon splits favored rhp.  2006 was also his worst year offensively, and his lowest amount of playing time since becoming a regular.  So while it may seem to make logical sense to have a platoon with the rightie Wlad, if Brad plays roughly like Brad, a platoon most likely wouldn't make much sense.  Assuming Wlad is on the team out of ST, a platoon of Raul and Wlad would make more sense, as Raul has not had a better ops against lhp since becoming a regular.  Also the added defense Wlad would provide over Raul would certainly help some.  And even open up the possibility that Wlad could play RF and Brad play LF on days Raul sits.
Wrad Bilkerson!

by larrybowa on Jan 31, 2008 7:23 PM PST   0 recs

Let's be realistic here. The Mariners are much
too foolish to platoon a "fan favorite" like Raul
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Jan 31, 2008 7:26 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

of course not
More or less just saying what makes the most sense for an organization that cared about actually trying to put its best team on the field every day.
Wrad Bilkerson!

by larrybowa on Jan 31, 2008 7:30 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, Raul obviously makes more sense
but the team will never platoon him, and at least by having Wilkerson split time, it should (in theory) help keep him from breaking down so fast.

by Jeff on Jan 31, 2008 8:11 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I don't like Wilkerson
but this signing is better than other veteran pickups the past few years (Vidro, Everett) by a lot.  Its not a bad signing by itself.  I'm sad Jones is gone and I'll try not to take my bitterness out on him.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 31, 2008 7:47 PM PST   0 recs

Guillen
Guillen will be remembered as the only good deal Bavasi ever made.

by batura on Jan 31, 2008 8:42 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Not true
You forgot when Bavasi traded for Ryan Howard when he was available...

...oh wait...

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 8:55 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Resigning Ichiro?
Resigning Putz? Signing Beltre?
"Kruger! My son tells me, your company shtinks!"-Frank Costanza.

by Coach Owens on Jan 31, 2008 9:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I don't give Bavasi credit for resignings
Personal preference - signing a player you already know is good and is already on your team doesn't seem like much of an accomplishment.

Also, Beltre was great, but I think he got Beltre for the wrong reasons (Just off an MVP year rather than amazing third baseman).

drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Jan 31, 2008 9:12 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Here's my problem:
Maybe he's a good talker and he offered a decent amount of money and he probably told/showed Ichiro that he was trying to build a winner. I get that.

But knowing Ichiro is a good player that he has to keep shows know brain power, throwing money his way shows no intelligence, and not once did he have to evaluate talent or show that he understands what the team needs. Really? Try to keep Ichiro, the best player on our team? WHY?!?!?!

So maybe he used some finesse to get him to stay and below market value, but it took no intelligence on his part to know that he needs Ichiro to stay. I equate Finesse, in this case, to Grittiness and Hustle.

drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Jan 31, 2008 11:53 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I could not do Bavasi's job
and he could not do mine.  I just wish he did his better.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 1, 2008 12:06 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

So, "intelligence"
is all that matters?

Actually getting good players on the teams does not count?

Maybe he's a good talker. That is also a plus.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Feb 1, 2008 12:39 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Again
As I said. He didn't get the good player here. The good player already was here, and it doesn't take a competent GM to realize he needs to convince Ichiro to stay.
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 4:31 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

He' made a couple of nice trades
Hansen for Huber.  Aaron Taylor for Sean Green.

The Garcia deal (enough though it hasn't worked out they way we thought it would)

good FA deals:

re-signing Ichiro was pretty awesome
Johjima
Beltre
Batista

LET WLAD BAT!!!!

by MFAN on Jan 31, 2008 9:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Betancourt
Both the initial signing and then the cheap long-term deal.

by G_ on Jan 31, 2008 10:38 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

THE CARLOS GUILLEN TRADE SUCKED11!!1!
//Oh, you meant Jose...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Jan 31, 2008 9:22 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I thought about that
but didn't feel like giving the man credit for him after he let him walk this year.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 31, 2008 11:05 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Brad WIlkerson looks like AJ Pierzynski
Coincidence?  I THINK NOT.

by Gomez on Jan 31, 2008 10:39 PM PST   0 recs

Baltimore Sun
Now saying it will be the 5 for 1 trade that was rumored.

That means Butler AND Tillman.

Am I the only one who rather keep Tillman than Morrow? I dont think he is better, but I feel like we are wasting Morrow.

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 11:38 PM PST   0 recs

Oh and before I get ripped
Yes it was already discussed, but I personally believed it was a 4 for 1 with the 4th/5th being an OR rather than an AND.

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 11:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Morrow Maybe
wasted by being in the bullpen, but for two to three years when the M's are "trying" to make the playoffs keeping Morrow is a much better option for the team rather then keeping Tillman who probably won't be ready for MLB for another 2 years or more...

by MfaninAlaska on Jan 31, 2008 11:44 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I don't get it
Morrow is a pretty poor, incredibly replaceable bullpen arm. How does that help us over the next two years?

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 1:29 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

He's pretty poor
based on one season?  He had some first year issue with walks, the rest of his numbers were pretty decent especially given his experience level.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 8:10 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

A rookie striking out
9 per 9 is poor?  Wow.
Go M's

by OBF on Feb 1, 2008 9:18 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Unlike you, I look at more than K%
And then I do thinks like 'regress' numbers. You may have heard of the concept.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 10:23 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Wow...
I read that and had to double check to make sure I wasn't reading the USS Mariner comments instead of Lookout Landing.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 10:38 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Graham's bipolar?
Now THAT'S how rumors get started.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Feb 1, 2008 10:54 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

speaking of which
did I get mod queued over there or something?

by marc w on Feb 1, 2008 12:44 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Not that I'm aware
Give me an email with what you think's up and I'll try to sort it out.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 12:54 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm aware
its an easy tell.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 11:31 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

By the way, for the record
Graham's right - Morrow is not much of a reliever right now. He's useful, and obviously has a high ceiling, but until he shows better command and/or development of his secondary pitches, he's not a good choice for a high-leverage role.

by Jeff on Feb 1, 2008 2:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

But he's still
more valueable this year and next year then Tillman, who has to improve the same thing that Morrow does.... which is what my original statement was about.

Right now Morrow is more valuable then Tillman, because Tillman is still at least 2 years away... both have good upside, both need development, Morrow however has shown he can pitch at the major league level in a full season.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I think that makes him less valuable
Than Tillman, at least in the context of a trade. With the rotation in place for 2 years, you don't really care how close a pitcher currently is to the majors, and Morrow has more trade value than Tillman. Trading Morrow instead seems to make more sense, and might save us extra prospects.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 3:30 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

With the rotation set
for 2 years at least, and the bullpen already losing one member in Sherril, and the only other guy really on the cusp of being able to contribute Mickolio, makes Morrow much more of a necessity..... plus his versatility of being able to be used for multiple innings since he was stretched out this winter makes him more valuable to the club, then if you use his value in a trade.

I'd like to keep both, but if it means one or the other going in the proposed trade for Bedard Morrow has more value to the M's then Tillman does.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:34 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Depends if you see Morrow as a useful reliever
I think he's no better than Huber or RRS or any of those guys (actually significantly worse than RRS). We could quite happily fill up 7 bullpen spots without using Morrow.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 3:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

See that's what I don't get
basically we're ready to dismiss his value as a reliever after one season of pro-ball.... not one season of ML baseball, but one season of pro-ball.

Morrow's only draw back was his walks... he was a high strikeout guy, had a low slg against, similar LD% to JJ.  The only issue he really had overall was walking guys.... is it unreasonable to believe he can improve upon that as he gets more comfortable in the majors?

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:58 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Here's the thing
Yes, there's room for improvement, but he's just not getting enough innings for things to click. There is zero room for error in a major league bullpen, which makes them pretty bad places to learn how to pitch. And as good as he is at striking out guys... he's waaaay worse for walking them.

Also, his home runs should probably jump next season.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Question, though...
Didn't his walk rate get a whole lot better the second half of the season???
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:03 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah
Note that that coincides with home runs happening and a jump in both FB% and SLG.

Instead of trying to hit the corners he was just gunning pitches down the heart of the plate. That's not really very helpful either, because then people smack the pitch.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:08 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm.
Reminds me a ton of Raffey Soriano...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Young Raffey, I meant...
Second-half-of-07 Morrow is more like Julio Mateo, but maybe not quite so bad.  

At this point, Morrow's upside in the M's 'pen is Soriano -- that's how I see it.  

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:35 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Before Soriano's last year
with the M's, there were a ton of discussions on him converting to a starter, and the overall impression was he wouldn't make a decent starter because he was a one pitch pitcher that would occasionally use a show me slider that was relatively flat with little bite.

Did I miss some massive improvement in his pitches?

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 4:43 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Unless I misremember
Rafael Soriano had a pretty good slider while he was with us.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I don't know about the quality of it
I know he threw one now and then... but I do know whenever talk of him being converted back to a starter came up, he was a one pitch pitcher...

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 4:53 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Maybe the first time around that was the case
I think the consensus after he came back for 2006 was that he was just too fragile to run out as a starter.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs