Fun With Numbers, Hitting Edition

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 3:30 PM PST in Regular News

God bless you, PITCHf/x tool by Josh Kalk. It doesn't include every pitch thrown in 2007, but it includes a representative sample, so away we go.

Percentage of fastballs seen:

Burke, 68.4%
Ballgame, 65.4%
Vidro, 65.0%
Ibanez, 64.6%
Ichiro, 64.0%
Guillen, 63.9%
Sexson, 62.6%
Betancourt, 62.2%
Lopez, 60.3%
Johjima, 56.5%
Beltre, 55.9%
Broussard, 55.7%

BA on fastballs put in play (includes homers):

Ichiro, .387
Burke, .375
Ballgame, .366
Beltre, .361
Vidro, .347
Ibanez, .346
Guillen, .337
Betancourt, .305
Broussard, .295
Johjima, .282
Sexson, .276
Lopez, .262

Isolated power on fastballs put in play:

Sexson, .301
Beltre, .287
Burke, .250
Guillen, .215
Ibanez, .202
Broussard, .192
Betancourt, .168
Johjima, .127
Lopez, .094
Vidro, .091
Ichiro, .073
Ballgame, .028

Percentage of fastball strikes swung and missed:

Guillen, 13.8%
Sexson, 12.9%
Broussard, 12.6%
Beltre, 11.8%
Ibanez, 10.3%
Ballgame, 10.2%
Burke, 8.3%
Betancourt, 6.0%
Lopez, 5.4%
Johjima, 5.0%
Ichiro, 4.7%
Vidro, 4.4%

BA on offspeed pitches put in play:

Guillen, .414
Burke, .412
Broussard, .407
Ichiro, .362
Vidro, .361
Johjima, .348
Ibanez, .343
Lopez, .341
Beltre, .340
Betancourt, .336
Ballgame, .333
Sexson, .286

Isolated power on offspeed pitches put in play:

Guillen, .289
Sexson, .286
Beltre, .242
Broussard, .204
Johjima, .178
Ibanez, .168
Betancourt, .114
Lopez, .104
Vidro, .098
Ichiro, .096
Ballgame, .067
Burke, .000

Percentage of offspeed strikes swung on and missed:

Sexson, 32.8%
Broussard, 23.3%
Guillen, 23.2%
Beltre, 23.0%
Ballgame, 20.3%
Johjima, 19.5%
Lopez, 18.2%
Betancourt, 15.8%
Ibanez, 15.0%
Burke, 12.8%
Vidro, 11.5%
Ichiro, 10.5%

Percentage of fastballs thrown for strikes:

Beltre, 70.5%
Ballgame, 69.1%
Betancourt, 68.9%
Johjima, 68.6%
Lopez, 68.2%
Broussard, 66.1%
Burke, 64.5%
Guillen, 63.3%
Ibanez, 62.4%
Ichiro, 61.8%
Vidro, 60.9%
Sexson, 59.1%

Percentage of offspeed pitches thrown for strikes:

Burke, 71.1%
Lopez, 68.7%
Ichiro, 67.2%
Beltre, 65.1%
Betancourt, 65.1%
Johjima, 63.4%
Broussard, 63.3%
Ballgame, 63.1%
Guillen, 62.7%
Vidro, 62.0%
Ibanez, 60.6%
Sexson, 58.3%

A few other things of note:

-Ben Broussard has curveball nightmares, and pitchers know it
-Jose Vidro makes contact on everything
-I don't know how many lives Raul Ibanez has, but he's got to have a bunch, considering he dies every time a lefty throws him a slider
-If you were a lefty in 2007, and you were facing Jose Guillen, you'd have been better off shooting yourself
-King Awesome swings really hard

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

Hmmmm.

I was impressed by this:

BA on fastballs put in play (includes homers):
3. Ballgame, .366

Until I saw this:

Isolated power on fastballs put in play:
12. Ballgame, .028

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 24, 2008 3:36 PM PST 0 recs

Another fun Willie fact:

in hitter's counts, Willie saw 100% fastballs.

100%.

Pitchers were so sure that Willie wouldn't be able to hurt them that they didn't care if he saw their fastballs coming. They threw them anyway.

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 4:50 PM PST up 0 recs

I thought you were exaggerating

about Guillen facing lefties.

But you weren't. Wow.

by Llewdor on Jan 24, 2008 4:23 PM PST 0 recs

Awww!

I was really hoping to see the numbers for off-speed, low and away for King Awesome.

They would certainly be awesome.

Okay, so the numbers aren't that easy to get out of the tool, but here's the picture-- its pretty funny (against right-handed for full breaking awesomeness):

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=0&bat=134181&type=2&result=-1&a mp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

by batura on Jan 24, 2008 4:54 PM PST 0 recs

The slider picture is worse

here

I can't even count how many low-away sliders went for swings and misses.

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 4:57 PM PST up 0 recs

Nice!!

by batura on Jan 24, 2008 6:55 PM PST up 0 recs

Not really

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 7:00 PM PST up 0 recs

So here is a question

How sustainable is Vidro's BABIP? Thats basically what he is going to live or die by next year. As a younger player he consistant put up around a BABIP of .330. It declined as he aged probably because he slowed down and couldn't get as many infield singles (no evidence).

The only way I see him being a decent hitter next year is if he can sustain a high BA because I don't see his SLG increasing. The BABIP he had last year (.342) was higher than I thought he'd have. This could all just be luck. Maybe, just maybe it might be sustainable though. Once again, maybe...just maybe moving to DH and sacrificing all your power in an attempt to consistantly hit singles has allowed him to increase his BABIP.

I see two options for him next year. His BABIP regresses back to around .310 maybe which is much more realistic based on his past experience or he really has improved somehow and his past BABIP is sustainable. I'm guessing his power isn't coming back no matter what but it also can't go down much more which is good i guess.

(Using last year's numbers and varying BABIP also...numbers are approximate)
W/ BABIP of .280
.251/.328/.331
W/ BABIP of .310
.278/.352/.358
W/ BABIP of .360
.323/.392/.403

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 24, 2008 5:06 PM PST 0 recs

.342 was his highest BABIP since 2000

I'm not optimistic. I think he's due for some regression to the .310-.320 range, unless he starts churning out the line drives.

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 5:19 PM PST up 0 recs

So if he hits

.290/.360/.370 I'm guessing we aren't happy with that right? I mean its not horrible but its not helping much. The big thing that worries me is that he screams as a guy who could udderly collapse and hit .240/.280/.300.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 24, 2008 5:54 PM PST 0 recs

At this point, I'd be happy with that line

he's already not the guy I want at DH. Having come to terms with that, all I'm hoping for is that he doesn't fall apart.

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 6:09 PM PST up 0 recs

I hope he falls apart fast and quick

so we can get his ass out of the lineup, and be protected for 2009.

"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Jan 24, 2008 6:24 PM PST up 0 recs

You mean like with Sexson?

...

by Jeff on Jan 24, 2008 6:29 PM PST up 0 recs

Sexson is the more attractive man.

"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Jan 24, 2008 6:47 PM PST up 0 recs

diff between BABIP and BA

Personally, I think Vidro's decline wasn't in any way "age" related. I think the season without a home, followed by two seasons in RFK, (while hurt), were the easy-to-see external causes for Vidro's 'decline'.

I think it is reasonable to assume that he was increasingly unhappy with his previous org, and that likely showed up in his numbers. I think ANY change of scenary would've created a Vidro bounce.

As to his BABIP - the .337 is certainly above standard expectation. But, let's take a look at the trend line for the difference between Vidro's BA and his BABIP.

Starting in '99 - going to present.
15, 9, 11, 15, 8, 6, 8, 19, 23

2007 marked a highwater mark not only for BABIP, but also, the single largest skew between BA and BABIP in his career. The career look says that only one thing has changed for Vidro, really - and that's his power. In Montreal, during his peak days, he managed a 51-2B + 24-HR season, and another 43/19 season, with his final full season netting 36/15. In 2007, he netted 26/6 with the Ms.

Simply put, he's not hitting the ball quite as hard. But, his K and BB numbers remain pretty solid, (2007 was only his 2nd season ever with a signifant edge in BB to Ks).

My own belief is that Vidro has (to a degree), become an Ichiro disciple. When he was at his peak, he was walking less and whiffing more. So, I would read into the stats that he's altered his "approach", which costs him power, but likely buffs his BABIP average slightly.

I think .315-.320 BABIP is the reasonable projection. But I would also expect some regression in his BA/BABIP difference, probably in the 14-18 range, meaning a .300 average is doable.

.300/.367/.393 would be my projection.

The arena I think there is room for potential gain is in power. In his final season in Washington, his 2B/HR numbers were nearly identical to his 2007 Seattle numbers (but in 80 fewer at bats). I'm thinking he's still got the potential to hit low-30 doubles and 10-HRs.

I wouldn't peg him to get 50 XBHs, but breaking 40 is definitely feasible, and if this happens, his slugging likely breaks .400 again.

While I take second half split data with a grain of salt, Vidro hit 16 doubles in the second half of 2007, and his isolated power jumped from 63 to 101. While I have no illusions that the 160 ISO will return, I'm thinking he can still post 100+ isolated power numbers - even in Safeco.

Calm is contagious

by Firemane on Jan 25, 2008 7:27 AM PST 0 recs

BABIP and BA

don't work like that. If you know the K% and B% then you can calculate the BA directly from the BABIP. You can't say you expect his K% and B% to stay the same, his BABIP to regress quite a bit and his BA not to suffer.

The thing that really makes me suspect Vidro's high BABIP is his speed. Ichiro is fast and many of his hits come from beating out groundballs for infield singles. Vidro is just too slow to maintain that high BABIP. He's old and fat.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 25, 2008 8:47 AM PST up 0 recs