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80-70

If you'd have told me back in March that George Sherrill would be getting the save in our 80th win by striking out Donnie Murphy, Daric Barton, and Jack Cust, I would've said "wow that's really specific."

Biggest Contribution: George Sherrill, +20.7%
Biggest Suckfest: Sean Green, -22.1%
Most Important AB: Ibanez grand slam, +14.1%
Most Important Pitch: Ellis triple, -15.2%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +21.7%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +23.2%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +5.1%

(What is this chart?)

  • Jeff Weaver against the top four offenses in the AL: 49 runs in 39.2 innings (11.12 RA)

    Jeff Weaver against the rest of baseball: 47 runs in 93.2 innings (4.52 RA)

    Weaver didn't throw much of a game today, constantly leaving pitches up and over the plate, but because the A's rolled out a crappy lineup, he was able to deliver one of the longest outings this team's had in weeks. Remember how before the year we talked about how there's no loyalty between Weaver and the M's, and that he'd basically be pitching for a bigger 2008 contract? Well, for what little remains of the season, he's pitching to avoid becoming an NRI. Tonight helped his case, even if just a little.

  • If Mark Ellis hits his grounder two feet to the right, it's a double play and people are calling Sean Green a hero instead of just another member of the bullpen who's going through some rough times down the stretch. Green hasn't been anything spectacular of late, but since August 28th he's been the recipient of some of the worst luck I've ever seen on a playing field. Green is still a good reliever, and someone to be counted on for seventh innings in 2008. Do not be swayed by an anomalous BABIP.
  • Jose Guillen is a dirty player. He's also a talented, productive, and energetic player, but dirty is an undeniable part of the package. His takeout slides at second base to break up potential double plays are extremely dangerous and extremely illegal, and he does that every single time. If Marco Scutaro had gotten hurt today instead of shaking it off, this game could've gotten ugly. I'm beginning to suspect that Guillen's perennially high HBP rates aren't a coincidence.
  • Every time Yuniesky Betancourt has a hot few games, there's always someone there waiting to point out how "you were wrong, there's a ton of potential left in his bat." And every time this happens Yuni proceeds to go into a little slump to bring his numbers back down to the standard. He's now 2-16 to follow up a pretty solid five-game stretch. Guess what? This is all there is. This is what Yuniesky Betancourt is going to look like as a hitter. It's not so bad, either, provided you stop expecting him to do more than he's capable of sustaining. Yuni's a good all-around player who's never going to hit much more than an average shortstop. Be happy with what we have.
  • George Sherrill has nine strikeouts in his last 3.2 innings following a period of minor ineffectiveness. Rafael Soriano has allowed six hits and zero runs in his last 14.1 innings following a period of homer-proneness. When you hear that a starting pitcher is trying to make a midseason adjustment, you should always be skeptical, but for several reasons, it's worth giving relievers the benefit of the doubt. Many of them are constantly developing.
  • Ben Broussard is killing me right now. Meanwhile, Raul's up to a .286/.342/.472 batting line. Not a bad year. For a DH.

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Nice
I like the Soriano plug there...

by cookiemonster on Sep 18, 2007 11:27 PM PDT reply actions  

Okay if yuni is what he is then how much potential
if left in jose lopez and is it worth keeping him around another year?
You may run like Mays but you hit like shit

by houseofprime2 on Sep 18, 2007 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Jose Lopez has a lot more offensive potential
he's just having a hell of a time getting it out.

Having taken a look at what's available, I'm all for giving Lopez one more shot. I do not think the front office agrees with me.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 18, 2007 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Willie in 2008!
(pukes)

by eponymous coward on Sep 19, 2007 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

I commented on this below
The M's might not be able to get a better player in 2008 to play 2B but Jose Lopez might be the most valuble trading chip the team has this offseason (sans guys they aren't going to trade) and if he flops he will have no value the following offseason.

by etowncoug on Sep 19, 2007 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

is*
You may run like Mays but you hit like shit

by houseofprime2 on Sep 18, 2007 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Is Ben Broussard killing you softly?
or is he killing you smalls?
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Sep 18, 2007 11:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Another question jeff
How of a difference is their between the upton brothers, Cameron Maybin and AJ. They all seem to have a very similar skillset.
You may run like Mays but you hit like shit

by houseofprime2 on Sep 18, 2007 11:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Athletically they're very similar
and they do have similar skillsets, with BJ Upton being the most polished hitter and AJ being the most polished fielder. AJ's probably never going to walk as much as the other guys, but he'll make up for that with his power to all fields.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 19, 2007 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Coming into todays game
Ben Broussard OPS v RHP: .739

Raul Ibanez OPS v. RHP: .869

by etowncoug on Sep 19, 2007 12:05 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not actually sure.
Some people say nursing, others say he double-majored in bio and chem. He probably did the latter in order to get a degree in the former.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 19, 2007 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jeff, you win
for the opening line

by tworsandtwols on Sep 19, 2007 12:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Echoes of Mitch Hedberg
"If you want to talk to me after the show, I'll be... fucking surprised."

Great tribute joke, Jeff!

by Nadingo on Sep 19, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm surprised yuni has 9 home runs,
but if this is him leveling off i'll take it.  His defense is spectacular and he's only 25.

Lopez is only 23.  I hope to hell he's not gone during the offseason.

Yu Bet! Cuba, si! Yanqi, NO!

by Patrick517 on Sep 19, 2007 12:48 AM PDT reply actions  

Lopez
if the M's are going to trade him, now would be the time. Next season he will be 24, a former all star, who probably can improve and might become a solid regular and if he does, he's locked into a below market deal. Jose Lopez can be the centerpiece in a major trade because while his value isn't at its highest, he still has plently. Someone might be willing to pay a decent price to get him.

If the M's hang onto him and he breaks out (entirely possible) then the M's will never trade him. But if the M's hang onto him and he doesn't take a step forward (returns to 2006 form) he looks like a busted prospect and at this point he has no trade value.

If the M's want to get value for Lopez now is the time to do it, when they don't need to trade him. Unfortunately this means that the Mariners trade Lopez next November for two no name prospects.

by etowncoug on Sep 19, 2007 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd keep him.
Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia were both a lot older when traded than Lopez is now.  If he turns out to be another Soriano, then so be it.  Soriano didn't do too well in Atlanta.  I'm sick of this organization giving up on it's young talent too early.  This organization is fine w/ trading home-grown prospects when they don't pan out but refuses to trade away people they acquired.  Avoiding risk to avoid embarrassment has won us absolutely nothing.
Yu Bet! Cuba, si! Yanqi, NO!

by Patrick517 on Sep 19, 2007 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Er...
If the M's want to get value for Lopez now is the time to do it, when they don't need to trade him.

You realize we have fuck-all in the organization for middle infielders who are ready for a major league starting job, right?

Basically, you dump Lopez and your options involve FAs like Matsui and non-starters like WFB or Nick Green. These aren't good options to improve 2B.

by eponymous coward on Sep 19, 2007 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

realistically, can it get worse
Lopez has been horrid with the bat this year. If his replacement be can produce something like a .700 OPS with average defense it would probably be an upgrade.

Also all of the names being kicked around (Castillo, Iguchi and Matsui) would be improvements in the OBP department. All are sort of old for the 2B position so they probably could be had on a one year deal. Another guy in the bargain bin that I have interest in (not as a starter but as a utility guy) is Nick Punto (his 54 BB would be second on the team). The M's should be able to patch this position together next year. If Lopez can bring in a MOR pitcher or an above average bat, I think the M's should trade him. They shouldn't trade him in a salary dump.

The two conditions I would place on any trade of Jose Lopez: 1) The Mariners aren't high on his long term outlook 2) Jose Lopez brings something of value into the organization that it currently lacks.

by etowncoug on Sep 19, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

but Lopez is 23 years old.
how old are his possible replacements?
Yu Bet! Cuba, si! Yanqi, NO!

by Patrick517 on Sep 20, 2007 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why do I have the awful feeling that we'll...
End up with one of Kazuo Matsui, Luis Castillo or Tadahito Iguchi...
Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Sep 19, 2007 5:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

You know
I'm not so sure that Yuni's defense is all that great. We're about to round out our third year of the advanced metrics agreeing that Yuni is average to slightly below average defensively.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Sep 19, 2007 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

yeah.
he made a lot of throwing errors in the first half, but seemed to correct it.

Jeter makes very few errors but gets to a lot less grounders than does Yuni.  

Maybe there is an accurate barometer for defense, but i haven't seen it.

Yu Bet! Cuba, si! Yanqi, NO!

by Patrick517 on Sep 20, 2007 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

it's puzzling to figure out
for example, using THT's stats, Yuni is average-ish at both out-of-zone plays made (where we'd expect him to excel because of his range) and his rate on in-zone plays (where we would expect him to be worse because of his high error total this season).

But it really doesn't gel with the eye test.

by Matthew on Sep 20, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great Sherrill Quote from Baker's blog
"Outs in the ninth are never easy but sometimes outs in the seventh and eighth are tougher than ones in the ninth,'' Sherrill says ... "It's just a matter of remembering what I did in Tacoma.''

Wow - if only MLB managers could grasp what is glaringly obvious to everyone else.  High-leverage situations don't always occur in the 9th inning!

by Nadingo on Sep 19, 2007 8:25 AM PDT reply actions  

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