73-55
Allow me to predict some of the complaints we'll probably hear over the next 20 hours or so:
The team looks like they weren't even trying.
The Mariners were clearly overlooking their opponent in anticipation of the Angels series.
Good teams don't split important series against a team like Texas. Playoff teams win three, championship teams win four.
People always love to overreact to games like this. I don't mean bloggers or readers, either; I mean everyone, fans and journalists alike. There's some sort of inexplicably sick satisfaction to be derived when you make sweeping conclusions following one or two games. I've never quite understood the appeal, but it's there, and there's no denying the frequency with which it rears its head.
Here's the thing, though - as I've written before, it just doesn't make sense to try and extract psychological character from performance. There's so little overlap and so much noise that not even the most thorough analysis of one will tell you much of anything about the other. Personally, I find it more than a little presumptuous to think that we can sit here and watch this team lose to Vicente Padilla and infer from this that the lineup was packing it in. What evidence is there to suggest that this is even remotely true? Did the entire team pack it in, or was it just a few guys? If they were really packing it in, how come they only lost by two, and tried to rally in the ninth? Do you really think the team would take kindly to the implication that they were giving less than their best effort in what was clearly an important game to win?
The psychological explanations may be more cathartic, but here's what it comes down to: the Mariners have a singles-based offense that doesn't walk and loves to put the ball in play early in the count. Just as is the case for individual players with the same profile, those types of offenses will be prone to wild swings in performance. The results of a patient and/or powerful approach will be fairly consistent; the results of an aggressive, weaker approach will not. Some days this lineup will look unbeatable, and other times it'll look like this. That's just the nature of the offense that Bavasi's put together.
Nobody likes to lose to a last-place team and fall further behind the division leaders, but in the end, that's all it is - one loss. We're still two up on the Yankees, who also crapped the bed against some mediocre pitchers. And remember, last time we had a game like this - when we got shut down by Scott Baker - the Mariners came back out and put together a nine-game stretch over which they scored 59 runs with a .949 OPS. One game tells you very, very little about what's going to happen in the next. Keep that in mind and I imagine you'll sleep better tonight than you thought you would after Yuni struck out. Today sucked, but it's the next three days that're critically important. Now is not the time to give up on this team.
Around this time last year, the Tigers lost a series to the Rangers (80-82), the Twins lost a series to the Royals (62-100), the Yankees lost a series to the Orioles (70-92), the A's split with the Royals, the Padres lost a series to the Rockies (76-86), the Mets lost a series to the Phillies (85-77), the Cardinals got swept by the Pirates (67-95), and the Dodgers got swept by their closest division rival. Somehow, those teams managed to put it behind them and make the playoffs. Why should we think that the Mariners' brand of suck is unique and five times as crippling?
Seven of the eight teams who held playoff spots on August 26th last season played in October. The same goes for the year before that. This is still a good situation, no matter how much we try to convince ourselves that it's not. I know it could be better, but it could also be way, way worse. Save your emotion for the next three games.
Chart coming soon.
Biggest Contribution: Adrian Beltre, +4.3%
Biggest Suckfest: Yuniesky Betancourt, -14.3%
Most Important At Bat: Beltre single, +10.9%
Most Important Pitch: Sosa homer, -14.2%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +0.8%
Total Contribution by Position Players: -56.0%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +5.2%
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30 comments
Comments
lots of good things to keep in mind thanks jeff.
by mark s on Aug 26, 2007 9:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to use this defense
Honestly, I think the reason we do this sort of thing is because we as a society do this sort of thing. We read into small sample sizes and things we observe more than our observations probably warrant. We see people talk about other people like 'He/she has something special about him/her.' THE FUCK does that mean, and what does it matter?
by Gomez on Aug 26, 2007 9:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I pretty much accepted that we were boned today
But we're still in contention, we're still leading the Wild Card by 2.0 and we're still in striking distance of 1st place in the AL West. Strangely enough for us there is a LOT of baseball left to play, as opposed to hopeful longshots who have to make up ground in a hurry if they want a chance to see October baseball from anywhere other than a couch.
by ThundaPC on Aug 26, 2007 9:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know some Nicaraguans
by Nadingo on Aug 27, 2007 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice recap, Jeff
I'm still worried about the Angels series - it seems that when the Mariners lose, they lose in bunches. Hope I'm wrong.
by Katal LM on Aug 26, 2007 10:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm just plain worried
by Edgar for Pres on Aug 26, 2007 10:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused how we won any games.
by SethGrandpa on Aug 26, 2007 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I have to say is...
by SethGrandpa on Aug 26, 2007 11:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lopez only avoided being the biggest suckfest
by johnbai on Aug 26, 2007 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it might be time for Nick Green
by JLC on Aug 27, 2007 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Jeff
There are 162 games. Going 2-2 in a series isn't a harbinger of a terrible collapse.
Go Mariners!
by Teej on Aug 27, 2007 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most folks
by ThundaPC on Aug 27, 2007 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, being an M's fan,
But pennant, wild card or long trip home, this has been an incredible year. We as M's fans are pretty docile, to be honest. We get excited over just being competitive. A season like this is a blast. I can't imagine being a Yankees or Red Sox fan and expecting to win it all every year. I think the constant disappointment would wear me out.
by Teej on Aug 27, 2007 2:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball is unique
by phil333 on Aug 27, 2007 5:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which of the DUH songs is that?
by rlintott on Aug 27, 2007 6:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's the FOX baseball theme.
The Rangers play it over the PA every single time a remotely decent defensive play is made.
by Jeff on Aug 27, 2007 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're fucking kidding, right?
No wonder noone shows up at that ballpark. I wouldn't either, if that was playing over and over again (well, 10 or so times in a well played game).
by Faux on Aug 27, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, it's the PA guy.
by Jeff on Aug 27, 2007 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was blown away by this
by Teej on Aug 27, 2007 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just noticed
by Gomez on Aug 27, 2007 8:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Before the weekend...
Get swept in this series, though...and I might jump off a building.
by carcinogen on Aug 27, 2007 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good perspective Jeff
by BaltimoreMarinersFan on Aug 27, 2007 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm so nervous about tonight
by phil333 on Aug 27, 2007 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean.
by Jeff on Aug 27, 2007 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
by Dylan on Aug 27, 2007 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IDK about that
As long as we don't get swept, I'd say this is a terrific opportunity, but hardly the be-all end-all like the 4 game set in ANA will be.
by Matthew on Aug 27, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The worst thing about living in central time...
by esoteric on Aug 27, 2007 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Try 10pm on the east coast.
by bpdawg24 on Aug 27, 2007 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MST3K DVDs + girlfriend get me through
by esoteric on Aug 27, 2007 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I can dig that.
by bpdawg24 on Aug 27, 2007 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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