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65-50

You know what's annoying about this season?

At 65-50, the Mariners have the fourth-best record in all of baseball, but their margin for error is so slim that we barely have any time to celebrate their successes before worrying about the competition and the next game on the schedule. Every win is necessary and every loss feels like the start of a promising season slipping away. The way we expect and demand wins may make us sound a little arrogant, but it's really just an indication of how nervous we are, because none of us is prepared to surrender, even if we know we don't necessarily belong in this position.

I want to sit here and really savor Jeff Weaver's team-leading second shutout. But unlike last time, when our playoff odds barely registered on the radar, this time it was just another game we couldn't afford to lose. (You'll notice we've had a lot of these lately, what with the Angels and Yankees playing good baseball.) So while congratulations are in order, I just can't bring myself to go crazy, because there are more important things ahead that sort of command the bulk of my attention.

So good job Jeff, and good job Mariners. You've done well to get to this point, and at the end of the year, we're all going to be thrilled with your accomplishments. Right now, though, there isn't as much time for that as we'd like there to be. Hopes and expectations are dynamic, and where in March we would've been ecstatic with this position, in the present day we're not ready to settle. Just keep winning. You may not get as many accolades as you want in the short-term, but at the end, believe me, it'd be worth it.

Biggest Contribution: Jeff Weaver, +26.0%
Biggest Suckfest: Adam Jones, -4.0%
Most Important At Bat: Guillen double, +12.1%
Most Important Pitch: Thome double, -7.9%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +26.0%
Total Contribution by Position Players: +24.8%
Total Contribution by Opposition: -0.8%

(What is this chart?)

I've been thinking for a few hours about how I wanted to weave (no pun intended, shut up) this game together, but so little actually happened that it's proven to be an impossible task. As such, today is a rare edition of Lazy Bullet Points. Not to be confused with Necessary Bullet Points, In-A-Rush Bullet Points, or Nobody's Reading This Before A Sunday Morning Game Bullet Points. Away we go:

  • In this three-game series in Chicago, the Mariners hit seven home runs. The overwhelming majority of them would not have left most other parks. The one Sexson hit today appeared to be legitimate, but the same cannot be said of Guillen's or Beltre's (which landed in front of the first row in left). In the summer months, US Cellular is a bad, Carlos Mencia-level joke of a stadium, the sort of place that makes Josh Fields look okay and Juan Uribe look not dead.

    Of course, the remarkable thing is that the White Sox weren't able to take better advantage. They hit four bombs, but three of those came on Friday against a flyball contact pitcher. I'd say I'm glad to leave this ballpark, but between the hitters padding their numbers and the pitchers getting to face the worst lineup in the league, a big part of me wishes we could play Chicago for the rest of the year, Hawk Harrelson be damned. They're a great matchup for this team, and I'm sad that we have to go.

  • Raul Ibanez hits five home runs in five games while I call him a spasming corpse. Richie Sexson goes deep the day after I call him out for being finished as a star-level hitter. JJ Putz starts to struggle just as I begin to consider his campaign one of the best relief seasons of all time. I know psychics are pretty popular in some circles, but what about their opposites?
  • This was not the best day Adam Jones has ever had. He looked fine in three of his at bats and hit a scorching should-be base hit off of Bobby Jenks in the ninth, but an 0-4 is an 0-4, and he also dropped a ball he probably should've caught in left field. Although, in Jones' defense, both Beltre and Betancourt were rapidly converging on the same spot, and that's a difficult situation for everyone. Still, the point is that if Jones wants to play more often, he's going to have to force McLaren into letting him do so, and today didn't help his case.
  • Speaking of that line drive, let's go over Bobby Jenks' ninth inning:

    -line drive up the middle that Jenks manages to knock down with his glove
    -blooper into right on which Dye makes a sliding catch
    -slow roller to short that Uribe successfully charges in gunning down a fast runner

    All three of those easily could have gone for base hits, but instead they just pushed Jenks further along on the path towards history. I don't mean to take anything away from the guy, because his run has been absolutely spectacular, but it just goes to show that none of these things ever happen without a little luck. Perfect games, hitting streaks, home run records - none of these things stem from talent alone. Luck plays a bigger role in baseball than anyone ever wants to acknowledge.

  • Jose Guillen is batting .419 with a 1.260 OPS over his last seven games. Because of Raul Ibanez, I don't think anyone's noticed. Whatever went wrong in that four strikeout game against Boston has very clearly righted itself.
  • After years of trying to explain how my opinions of guys like Jarrod Washburn and Ryan Franklin are compatible with some of their terrific performances, I've decided that it's completely impossible to separate good pitching from bad hitting. We've always known that some fraction of their success in certain shiny games comes from facing bad lineups, but we've never known just what that fraction is, nor will we ever.

    You can see where I'm going with this. Statistically speaking, Jeff Weaver just spun one of the best starts the AL has seen all season long. He also faced the worst batting order in the league, a group that hits for a low average and struggles to make consistent contact. How much credit does he deserve for the outcome? Clearly not 100%, but the answer isn't 'zero', either, so he ought to get some recognition for bringing his ERA closer to respectable territory. My opinion of Jeff Weaver isn't any different now than it was yesterday, but this was the best possible game he could've given us, and here's hoping it's enough to get him to finally shave his head.

  • I hope someone convinces Dave to try and say "Ryan Bukvich" five times fast on the air.
  • One last thing about Weaver - after he allowed a well-hit single to lead off the game and a double off the top of the center field fence two batters later, I was convinced that this was going to be another one of those Bad Weaver days. As much as I root for him now, the memory of what he looked like early in the season has been permanently singed into the back of my brain. Instead of falling apart, though, Weaver went on to throw the shutout, demonstrating that the difference between Good Weaver and Bad Weaver is exceedingly slim. That doesn't make sense to me.

One would think that the story tomorrow night would be the first ever showdown between King Felix and Johan Santana. One would be mistaken. Monday night marks Jeff Cirillo's first visit to Safeco Field since June 2004, when he hit a decisive three-run homer off of Jamie Moyer from which we still haven't recovered. All that booing you guys have been waiting to rain down on Richie? Yeah, keep it bottled up. There's a far more deserving and batshit crazy target coming to town.

With Cirillo having been sent to the NL, the story tomorrow night, of course, will be the first ever showdown between King Felix and Johan Santana. Why wouldn't it be? Nothing could ever top that kind of high profile ace-off.

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Uh....Cirillo is no longer a Twin.
He was one of the many victims in Josh Byrnes crazy waiver wire spree. He's a Diamondback. And no, I still don't root for the assclown despite that fact.
These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Aug 12, 2007 7:06 PM PDT reply actions  

August
The rest of August may be the only time we'll have all season to get into a good position for September.  I posted a Diary containing some dates to look out for.  Pretty much all the other contenders are going to be battling each other.

by ThundaPC on Aug 12, 2007 8:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Also
The Yankees, as good as they've been, will face some of the stiffer competition they've seen this 2nd half, and they ought to struggle some and allow the M's a great chance to gain some ground.

by Gomez on Aug 12, 2007 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyone else get that feeling
That while we are winning, Johnny Mac is like Mr. Magoo....kinda has that look to him as well as his actions indicating he has no idea whats going on.
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Aug 12, 2007 8:33 PM PDT reply actions  

on the bright side
mr. magoo seemed to always come out on top

dumb luck has gotten us this far...

by Zack on Aug 12, 2007 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

you know what's funny
at 55-60, the cardinals have the 13th worst record in baseball yet are only 5.5 games back with a chance to be even less this week playing the division "leader". the also appear to be surging with the resurgance of some kid named ankiel.

yall should play in the national league, it's more fun here.

sincerly,

excited cardinals fan

by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 12, 2007 9:01 PM PDT reply actions  

I saw a sign at the Nationals/Tigers game
in June..some guy randomly walking through the aisles with a sign that said "NL is JV"

He was booed by everyone except for me and a buddy..we stood and laughed and saw him later in the subway station and almost got into a fight with some weird Nats fan...needless to say, but the NL sucks and its funny to point that out to NL fans.  

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Aug 12, 2007 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dagummit! Mercy!
Die in a fire Hawk.
These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Aug 12, 2007 9:06 PM PDT reply actions  

I just got done watching the condensed version
and I especially loved the last call of the game. "GET OUT...sigh....it won't. Game over."

Even in the condensed game, half of it was filled with dead air.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Aug 12, 2007 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Richie doesn't like us booing him.
"I think everyone wanted to get out of there (Seattle) at that time,'' he said. "It got real boo-friendly there for awhile. It seemed like everything we did was booed. I think everyone just needed to get out of there for a little bit.
These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Aug 12, 2007 9:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Kinda funny when you suck
at a job you get paid so much to PLAY, you get booed by those financing your paycheck..weird
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Aug 12, 2007 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah well
You hate it, Richie?  Then DO YOUR FUCKING JOB LIKE YOU'RE BEING PAID $14 MILLION TO.

Asshat.  OPS 850 and maybe then you'll have business complaining if you're booed, but then again, you're probably not getting booed if you do.

by Gomez on Aug 12, 2007 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Like, duh.
It's not like you're doing (even) an OK job and getting booed. Or was like Ryan F.

A cleanup/5th place hitter that bats .200 is gonna get booed. Deal with it...

by rtang on Aug 12, 2007 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

If he can actually put the bat on the ball

I won't boo him (as loud).  Beckett made him look like a complete fool, he was missing fastballs by 2-3 feet, how do you even do that in the major leagues?

by Notor on Aug 12, 2007 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lets not be negative
Instead of having AJ as the biggest suckfest, rename it to like "Raul's replacement" or something like "Rusty due to no playing-time LF"
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Aug 12, 2007 9:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Oh look
BBTN shows the game from today in their leading off segment... but only the part with Jenks breaking his little record.  Fuck you, ESPN.

by Gomez on Aug 12, 2007 9:32 PM PDT reply actions  

The only non-worthless guy
on there is the Gnat (Eric Young) who thinks the Mariners win the AL Title.
My name is Matt Foley. I am 35 years old, I am divorced and I live in A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER!

by Coach Owens on Aug 12, 2007 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but at the end of the segment
he retracted that assertion, saying that the M's would fall "just short" of the Angels.

So much for Eric Young being "cool."  Damn you ESPN and BBTN!

Like many have said earlier, BBTN has been watchable since 97 or 98.  I remember watching that show multiple times a day when I was 13-14.  Can't even stand it for more than a few moments now-a-days...

"You just got Aj-aculated on!"

by wwbaker3 on Aug 13, 2007 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

So true
And there was Wednesday night Baseball. The second game was always a West coaster, with BBTN fallowing. At the time it was Ravich, HR, and Gammons. Good times.
angels fan

by rjcicc on Aug 13, 2007 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

This being my first season with mlb.tv,
this series was pretty much my introduction to the majesty of language that is Hawk Harrelson. It's nice to know that I have the ability to tune into this guy any time I want (provided the White Sox are at home).

I often tune into Dodgers games just to hear Vin Scully. Now I'll watch White Sox games for the complete opposite reason.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Aug 12, 2007 10:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Heh
manatee_the_torpedoes: manatee being manatee

by Robert on Aug 12, 2007 10:24 PM PDT reply actions  

Should be a fun game tomorrow
The two things baseball is about:

Good matchups, and playoff atmosphere.

It is so weird how there seems to be a new generation take over. It doesnt veen feel gradual. It feels like BOOM, Gwynn, Clark, M Williams, Fred McGriff, Mattingly, Ripken retire and suddenly we have a new breed of Pujols, Mauer, Morneau, Santana, etc.

Its just strange. Kinda like a new decade.

Oh yeah, and Griffey isnt a kid anymore. WTF?!

by Slica on Aug 12, 2007 10:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Don't forget Edgar on your list
there.
My name is Matt Foley. I am 35 years old, I am divorced and I live in A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER!

by Coach Owens on Aug 12, 2007 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow
How could I forget the greatest DH of all time?

But yeah, you get my point. I left Mcgwire for obvious reasons.

Should add Barry Larkin.

I have no idea how these guys stack up (Mattingly and Clark didnt make the HOF...)...now that im older, but at the time...they were all pretty big names.

by Slica on Aug 12, 2007 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm
30 thousand cheap bastards?
I will not make jokes in my sig. I will not make jokes in my sig. I will not...

by TIF @ Lookout Landing on Aug 13, 2007 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would laugh
if the fan distribution for tomorrow night's game was a packed upper deck... and half empty box seats.

by Gomez on Aug 13, 2007 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hey! F*** you!
I'm spending $10 here with my buddy after dropping $25-50 a piece 3 times this year already (all Felix starts, all wins).  It's about time I got cheap seats, cuz my wallet is getting kinda light.  Plus, gotta start saving money for those all-so-important games in September, potential playoff games, and of course, 'Hawks games!

Yeah, go 'Hawks!  I'll be there on Opening Day, too!

"You just got Aj-aculated on!"

by wwbaker3 on Aug 13, 2007 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah,
I remember going to the Kingdome in the mid 90s to watch RJ and David Cone pitch, and seeing all those "real Yankees" such as O'Neil, Boggs, Bernie, Wettland, Mattingly, and the rest of the Bronx Bastards against our good 'ole boys.

It definitely doesn't feel gradual what so ever.  If you've been playing fantasy baseball as long as I've had, just think about the players that were drafted 5 years ago, and then another 5 years ago, so on so forth.  It's crazy!

I remember having Mike Piazza, Andres Galarraga, Craig Biggio, A-Rod, Robin Ventura, Dante Bichette, Otis Nixon, David Cone, Pat Hentgen, etc in '96.  Just look at the names of those that were prominent just over 10 years ago.

It's a little sad because you realize that time does fly, and things are not perminent.

I guess this is what it means to be getting old.  As my family use to take me to the games, and now I'm taking my daughter to the games.  Hopefully one day she'll be as big of a Mariner fan as I've grown up to be.  

Thank you RJ, Edgar, Griffey, etc, for making me the M's fan that I am today.

"You just got Aj-aculated on!"

by wwbaker3 on Aug 13, 2007 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Rough road trip coming up
from late August to early September. One in Cleveland, three in Toronto, three in New York, and three in Detroit. Of course this comes after 3 weeks of sub .500 oppenents.

by Mariner John on Aug 13, 2007 1:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Isn't it funny how
after months of clamoring for Jones, Ibanez, Guillen, and Vidro all go on super hot streaks?
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Aug 13, 2007 5:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, it's a stupefying occurrence.
Hot streaks are temporary things, though, so you shouldn't expect Jose Guillen, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro to continue producing at such prolific levels. Sooner rather than later, they'll all regress back to their respective means.

by AK1984 on Aug 13, 2007 7:02 AM PDT reply actions  

contradictions
Jeff

You made all great points in your post, but you have to be consistent when backing up your assertions. If you're going to say that the Mariners (especially Raul and Guillen) have been hot because they've had two straight series in hitters' parks, then you have to also account for park factors in respect to Weaver's performance. You can say that Jeff Weaver had a great outing because he was facing a poor lineup, but you still have to credit Weaver for pitching a shutout in a hitter's park like Comiskey. It is only annoying that you did that because I see that so often among Mariners' bloggers; using park factors and sub-par opposition to continually prove that the Mariners suck.

by TheCoyleComet on Aug 13, 2007 7:26 AM PDT reply actions  

Yes, he does deserve that credit.
It doesn't really change the overall point, though.

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 13, 2007 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Logic vs. Raul
So far this year Santana has held Lefties to an OPS of .593.

Lets just see where Raul will be hitting tonight!  the 3 spot?  Cleanup?  maybe the 5 hole?  Let's see if Johnny Mac can bat Raul and Richie back to back with a straight face.

by Safeco Hobo on Aug 13, 2007 8:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Well...
He is 11-28 (.393) w/ a homer and 8 rbi against Santana in his career.

What do YOU think?

by hcoguy on Aug 13, 2007 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hello all
well I've been gone on vacation for week in crazy middle of no where Idaho. I had no idea that when I was not hiking XM service was going to be spotty and I could not get cell phone updates. Nice to see we are still in this race (or both races), sad to see Raul and Sexson kind of did stuff.

Also I read a great fiction book over the week. The Brothers K by David James Duncan. If you have not already read it there is a lot of great baseball talk in it, and it was hilariously written. Much like some of the goffy stuff you see here at LL.

Hey Raul, Richie, Vidro please quit. Thank you NB

by InSpokane on Aug 13, 2007 9:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Oh hell yes.
This is probably my favorite book (I just finished reading it for the second time).
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Aug 13, 2007 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

It is amusing that in Weaver's CG shutout
he allowed that long fly to Thome that would have been a homerun had he hit it any direction other than absolutely dead center.  8 feet to either side and that clears the wall.  A different grain pattern in the bat or a hint of a different breeze and that ball's gone.

by Llewdor on Aug 13, 2007 10:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Or different timing in Thome's swing
Or in Weaver's pitch selection and delivery.

Every pitch and its result is a collection of dozens of variables.

by Gomez on Aug 13, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, what he said.
Luck plays a bigger role in baseball than anyone ever wants to acknowledge.

You are so right -- it plays a huge role in the results we see in the box scores. More accurately, it's called random occurence, because more often than not, the results can't be termed "lucky" or "unlucky", they're just different things that happened. And recognizing that random occurence has a huge influence on baseball statitstics is neccesary for anyone trying to get a grasp on baseball analysis.

Ergo your next comment:

Jose Guillen is batting .419 with a 1.260 OPS over his last seven games.

Yeah, what I just said.

by nathaniel dawson on Aug 15, 2007 10:46 PM PDT reply actions  

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