Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


54-46

You know why I'm glad this place has a community? Because of comments like this one:

Driving home tonight, a simple thought occurred to me.

We won't make the playoffs.

And suddenly, that idea was okay to me.
(...)

It seems like such an easy concept, but think about it for a minute. Really digest what it says. The Mariners probably aren't going to make the playoffs. We can't make any guarantees, not with a series against Los Angeles coming up next week, but with a substantial gap to erase, a slumping flawed roster, and a front office that's given no indication of being capable of making this team better, the odds are stacked against us. Chances are at least three- or four-to-one that the Mariners spend October watching the playoffs on TV.

Does it suck? Yeah. Is it an unfamiliar position? Not at all. Have we dealt with worse before? You bet your ass. I'd say we've actually dealt with it pretty well, given the size and popularity of the LL community and Mariner blogosphere (which took off the winter before 2004). By and large, this is a group that knows how to handle losing.

So why should this year be any different? I'll grant you that a week ago our expectations were soaring, but we haven't actually occupied a playoff spot since April, and we've never been as good as the teams we've been chasing. One could argue that many of us just got too far ahead of ourselves. It's been great being back in a race again for the first time in forever, but you have to be careful not to let yourself go too crazy, or else you just set yourself up for the kind of disappointment we've felt over the past seven days.

It's time we accept that this team is a longshot. Once you do that and stop holding out expectations of playoff baseball, the whole thing becomes so much easier. Yes, there's beauty in triumph, but there's hilarity in ineptitude, and whichever way you go, you end up smiling. Instead of being frustrated by these guys, look for the humor. Raul Ibanez tracking fly balls? A DH who hasn't homered since May? A clear dramatic upgrade still cashing his checks in Tacoma? A bad 8th inning righty whose struggles after surgery only suggest to the coaching staff that he needs to pitch more often so he can get over his struggles after surgery? These things are funny. What good does it do to get frustrated by this team? What reason could you ever have to bring yourself to think that they'd actually do something well? Lower your expectations and you'd be surprised how much more fun you can have. Baseball is entertainment, and winning a championship isn't the only way to make it an enjoyable, rewarding experience. Dodger fans are happy about beating the Rockies tonight, but I'd wager that watching Vidro fall down and tackle first base brought me just as much joy. In that respect, the joke's on other people, because I'm able to get satisfaction out of every game, instead of just the wins.

Not ready to surrender? That's fine, neither am I. Not completely, not yet. But if and when we realize that it just isn't going to happen this year, remember this post, and in particular remember this sentence: getting angry at a baseball game is just you having the wrong response to something that was probably hilarious. Stick with that philosophy while watching this team and you'll be giggling like a little bitch in no time.  

Biggest Contribution: Adrian Beltre, +12.7%
Biggest Suckfest: Jose Vidro, -18.0%
Most Important At Bat: Beltre single, +10.9%
Most Important Pitch: Swisher homer #2, -14.8%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -8.0%
Total Contribution by Position Players: -44.0%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +2.0%

(What is this chart?)

I'm going to take a little while to get re-accustomed to this whole situation before diving back into the blog head-first. In the meantime, Felix goes up against Dallas Braden tomorrow at 7:05pm PDT. Braden is a nobody former 24th-round draft pick who's only with the team because Oakland's rotation has been torn to shreds, but he's still light years ahead of the guy for whom we traded Rafael Soriano. See? Funny!

0 recs | Comment 33 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I was so disgusted by the game
I missed Vidro tackling first base...any pics of it?
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jul 27, 2007 1:05 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, but
in typical hilarity, it did happen JUST as I was explaining to one of my friends why we call him "Turbo".  She was like "He looked kinda fast there... sort of..."

by Deanna on Jul 27, 2007 2:24 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Off topic
But...
Go see the Simpsons Movie
Right now
Go!!!
why are you still there??
Guaranteed to be a million times more entertaining than Tomorrows game.

by mutt1823 on Jul 27, 2007 2:00 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I want to be okay with not making the playoffs
But I can't be because I don't see our losses as a lack of talent but a complete mismanagement of it. Trading Soriano, trading for Vidro, continuing to give Vidro/Ibanez/Sexson everyday jobs when they are playing worse than minor leaguers. Having a jem of a talent sitting in AAA, Chris friggin Reitsma, etc.

by phil333 on Jul 27, 2007 5:59 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you ever get the feeling...
that our front office meetings look like that commercial with the monkeys partying in the boardroom? Turning the WE chart upside down because it looks better that way...

by Shawk on Jul 27, 2007 7:43 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This team is what we thought it was
At the beginning of the season, nobody, and I mean nobody, thought the M's would contend.  If at the beginning of the season, someone had told you that at the end of July, the M's would be 8 games above .500, you'd have taken it in a heartbeat.  

So now, here we are, the M's falling out of contention, and I'm more than OK with it.  I'm all about the baby steps - this team is a better team than it was two years ago.  Can they be better? Sure they can.  Will they?  I dunno, Bavasi, that's your job.  Go do your job.

But having followed this team for so long, I'd much rather be upset about a losing streak in July than saying, yet again, "it doesn't matter, they've been out of contention since May" and trying to find other ways to fill my summer nights.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jul 27, 2007 8:00 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you wanna go ahead and crown 'em
then crown their asses!
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jul 27, 2007 8:46 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks for this....
"getting angry at a baseball game is just you having the wrong response to something that was probably hilarious. Stick with that philosophy while watching this team and you'll be giggling like a little bitch in no time"

it's a good thing to keep it in perspective...
it is so easy to get bent out of shape about something you care about...

this write up helped me reign it in....

by gblady on Jul 27, 2007 8:59 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff You Are Right!
I agree.

by maxthedrummer on Jul 27, 2007 9:12 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I feel tricked
You know last year, I never really expected them to win ever, so when they did it was fun. I'd watch to see if Yuni did something cool, or if for one night Beltre would revert to 04 season self.

Now that they were wining I expect them to at least try to win. I really really hate Raul and Vidro.

Everyone but Ichiro makes an out everyday

by InSpokane on Jul 27, 2007 9:15 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah
I never thought we'd make it, even when we were doing good. Our team just doesn't look pretty enough on paper.

Still, it's not like Gil Meche is leading the Royals to the playoffs. That would be a bitter pill. Obviously it couldn't have happened, just saying...

Willie is ours, and you can't have him

by spittle8 on Jul 27, 2007 10:03 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great post Jeff
If I continue to take the M's as serious as I have been I'm pretty sure I'll end up impaling myself with a pencil when Raul kills another rally. Maybe I'll just head on over to Tacoma and watch our orgs. most talented youngsters instead
Too close for missles, switching to guns.

by Paseman on Jul 27, 2007 10:50 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's so quite and lonely here today
I think that makes it worse. though I have gotten more work done this morning than I have in weeks.
Hey Raul, please quit. Thank you NB

by InSpokane on Jul 27, 2007 11:38 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with Jeff's take
While it was nice to see the M's in hot contention... realizing that there are four AL playoff spots, three for division champs, and several worthy teams had me realize that the M's would've had to thread a karmic needle to get over the hump and make the playoffs.  Good teams miss the playoffs every year.  For a talented, young but flawed Mariners team to make it would have taken a lot of things going right and few things going wrong, and we just can't count on that.  I can't get too mad about this slide, even if it is rather absurd even for the Mariners, and had resulted in so few changes.

Also, everybody STFU about the "RED HOT" Yankees already, because the only reason they're soaring up the standings is because they're beating up on really shitty teams like the Royals and Devil Rays.  Yeah, you scored 21 runs on the vaunted Devil Rays pitching staff, I'm SO FUCKING IMPRESSED.  Once they actually have to play teams with actual pitchers and actual hitters, they'll start getting beat again and regress to the shitty overpriced .500 team they really are, just like the Mariners regressed to the talented but flawed .500 team they really are.

by Gomez on Jul 27, 2007 1:24 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thank you
Also, everybody STFU about the "RED HOT" Yankees already

Me and my grandmother could put up 21 runs on the Devil Rays - and my grandmother's been dead since 2003.  

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jul 27, 2007 1:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm
The Yankees have outscord their opponents by 120 runs this year, on pace to post a +200 run differential for the year.  Find me a .500 club that has done that before.

by davidcameron on Jul 27, 2007 1:47 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmmm
on pace to post a +200 run differential for the year

I'll do some digging when I get home, but just at a glance, 41 runs of that 120 run difference came in their last two series, against Tampa and KC, so I'd be surprised if that were sustainable against better teams.  Don't know what that means for the run differential for the season as a whole, I'll play with those numbers tonight, but it seems there's a bit of inflation going on in the last six Yankee games. I could be wrong, though.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jul 27, 2007 1:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah
How many of those runs were game changing runs, instead of runs in mop-up time after the game was well decided?

by Gomez on Jul 27, 2007 2:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you're curious
There's a whole big discussion about the value of pythagorean projections based on RS/RA versus incorporating the diminishing returns of runs scored/allowed in blowouts over at The Book blog.  If you'd rather not read the nuts and bolts, basic conclusion - it matters very little.  

The list of .500 teams with three digit run differentials is tiny.

by davidcameron on Jul 27, 2007 2:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I also recall...
from the initial research Bill James did into this aeons ago that good teams underperform their overall winning percentage in close games, and overperform in blowouts, and vice versa for bad teams- which is the underlying reason why Pythag works; good teams in a league kick the crap out of bad teams in that league, and a close game is more likely to be determined by essentially random events (bad calls by umpires, fluky errors or plays, and so on).

by eponymous coward on Jul 27, 2007 2:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Did some diggin
for +200 run diff the list is pretty small.  The worst record was the '97 Mets with a record of 96-66.

For +150 run diff the worst record was the '90 Mets with a record of 91-71.

For +100 run diff the worst record was the '97 Astros with a record of 84-78.

(Since 1970)

by Edgar for Pres on Jul 27, 2007 2:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

O RLY?
Again:

Clemens
Mussina
Wang
Pettite

As a top 4, that's pretty good. And with A-Rod + Jeter + Matsui, they have enough hitting (not an excess, but enough).

Oh yeah, they have a decent bullpen. Not great, but decent.

I'm not sure I pick them as a favorite in a playoff series (Giambi and some other guys just look terrible), and I won't pick them to beat out Boston or the Cleveland/Detroit loser, but it won't shock me to see them squeak in, either.

Also: check out the Yankee second-half schedule.

http://yankees.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=nyy

They get a LOT of Baltimore, KC, Tampa and Chicago.

The bottom line is good teams do exactly what the Yankees did against KC and Tampa: beat the snot out of bad teams. So arguing "but the Yankees really suck because they beat up on bad teams" is exactly the wrong argument to make.

by eponymous coward on Jul 27, 2007 2:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That was a little snotty, but okay
The only way we can answer the question either way is to watch how they play into October.

by Gomez on Jul 27, 2007 6:53 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Even accounting for this weekend
The Yankees had a +70 run differential through 90 games last week.  They were outscoring their opponents by almost a run per game even before they absolutely destroyed the Devil Rays.  

They're not a .500 team.  They're not even close to a .500 team.

by davidcameron on Jul 27, 2007 2:03 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again
It goes back to the example where M's losses like the 16-1 blowout Reds loss hammered their run differential.  Even discounting this weekend, the Yanks have likely posted a few big blowouts.  Just in the last month alone, the big weekend aside, witness a 12-0 pasting on July 8th against Ervin Santana (now demoted) and the Angels, an 8-0 whitewash of Carlos Silva and the Twins on 7/3, a 14-9 win vs Bartolo Colon et al on 7/6.

The losses during their big road losing skid in late June weren't as huge: 1-3, 1-6, 3-4, 5-6, 2-7.  Some of those differentials were of some size, but not 21-4 or 12-0 size.  I see a lot of 8-2 and 7-1 wins, indicating an opening of the throttles once they built a lead, against teams like Texas, Pittsburgh, Arizona... I see a lot of runs against a lot of soft opposition.  It can be pretty easy for talented hitters to pile up extra runs on mop-up relievers with a 4-6 run lead.

Are the Yankees as good as a couple of hot streaks against bad teams and a few opportunistic blowouts indicate?

by Gomez on Jul 27, 2007 2:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep
Good teams blowout bad teams.  It's how we know they're good.

by davidcameron on Jul 27, 2007 3:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough
Somewhat unrelated:  In your opinion, how would you classify the Yankees' early losing?  Bad variance?  Hot opposition?  Bad hitting/pitching that has since improved?  One of those weird fluke things that wouldn't happen 9 times out of 10?

by Gomez on Jul 27, 2007 3:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See EC's post above about starting pitching
Four of the Yankees' five best starters (Wang, Mussina, Clemens, and Hughes) missed significant time earlier in the season.  Even their best spot starer (Rasner) has been hurt.

by G_ on Jul 27, 2007 3:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You just have to pick your spots
it is ok to get angry, just temper it with humor.  I am pissed that the FO/McLaren and staff move like molasses making necessary changes; however, the situations that need to be addressed are indeed quite humorous exactly because they've gone on for so long unheeded.

And as far as "no one" thinking they would contend this year, I said at the beginning of the year to anyone who would listen (though not here) that the Mariners would win this division.  I understand our flaws but I also understand our rival's flaws and every other team has some serious holes too.  I just thought it was time for lady luck to be on our side.  There is still time, I suppose.  The Angels haven't exactly run away with this thing and we still play them a bunch.

"Players have two things to do. Play and keep their mouths shut." - Sparky Anderson

by Omerta on Jul 27, 2007 2:30 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

rabble rabble
Since i didnt belive the M's had any sort of real shot at even being in any sort of penate race (minus the first week when everyone is in it still) i have been for the most part suprised and happy that they have managed to keep themselves in it as far as they have.
Spider pig, spider pig does whatever a spider pig does.

by wadswerth on Jul 27, 2007 4:41 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff is absolutely right
im a Wake Forest graduate and as yall have probably heard we lost our mens basketball coach all too soon yesterday afternoon.  

That crushed me emotionally.  I didnt really watch the M's game last night, but just checked in for scoring updates.  I didnt really care if we broke our losing streak or not.  There are more important things.

My dad is also 56 (Skip's age when he died.)  I'm going up to my parents' house this weekend to give my family a hug.

The Mariners will be here for me when I'm ready to get back into the daily grind of rooting for a team all the way across the country.  But for now; I'll be cheering for them from a further distance mentally than physically.  Unlike in the recent past.

That being said...Happy Felix Day everyone!  

by deacvision7 on Jul 27, 2007 4:44 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Amy_s_pictures1_042_small
Ichiro's comments on his fake flip at Yankee Stadium
Small
Strip Club Cleared to Open Near Safeco Field

Recent FanPosts

Small
Want to go to tonights game in Boston?  Please?
Small
Top 5 IFA Guillermo Pimentel signs with the Mariners?
Clemente_small
OT 7/2/05-- Flag Waving, Long Weekend, 4th of July Holiday edition
Small
Open Sounders vs. Timbers gamethread
Small
Happy Canada Day
Durer2_small
Who will be heir to the King?
Eyebrows_small
OFFTOP 6/29/09 - Avoiding Work Edition
Dscn1856_small
USA vs. Brazil Game Thread
Small
Anyone meeting up in NYC?

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Sexy People

Hms_surprise_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports