Willie Ballgame Community Projection Results

Based on these results, there are at least 109 people in the world who do not think very highly of Willie's offense.

AB: 209
H: 51
2B: 6
3B: 1
HR: 1
BB: 17
HBP: 3
K: 38
BA: .243 (.024)
OBP: .309 (.027)
SLG: .297 (.039)
IsoPa: .066 (.015)
IsoPo: .053 (.020)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the propagated error is listed in parentheses. Thanks a million to reader Bryan McCulloch for helping out with the calculations.)

Graphical form of this projected embarrassment:

For those of you keeping track of this sort of thing, the above forecast actually calls for a regression. Pretty much the only thing Willie did half-decently at the plate last year was draw the occasional walk, and you guys don't think that'll keep up at the same rate (and why would it? Who throws balls to Willie on purpose?). The rest of the line is virtually identical to 2006's, right down to the solitary home run, which must be the result of some kind of hardy, pervasive optimism among the fan base despite Barry Zito's leaving the division for more liberal pastures.

Fun with (more) numbers: according to the spreadsheet, Willie is roughly one standard deviation below Ramon E Martinez. In other words, according to the community, there's about a 16% chance that our super awesome utility player actually resembles a competent utility player (nevermind a super awesome one). So, yeah, God help us if someone gets majorly hurt, because Plan B looks about as appealing as that bar graph.

Pitchers start tomorrow (Felix!), pending a brief introductory post whenever I get around to doing it.