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Why Carlos Silva Isn't Totally Awesome

Tiny by Jeff on in Regular News

I'm stealing Matthew's idea and running with it.

(2005-2007 statistics)

K%

Silva: 9.6%
Towers: 13.7%

unintentionalBB%

Silva: 2.9%
Towers: 4.3%

HR%

Silva: 3.5%
Towers: 3.6%

Strike%

Silva: 67%
Towers: 68%

1st pitch strike%

Silva: 67%
Towers: 66%

Swinging strike%

Silva: 8%
Towers: 11%

Line Drive%

Silva: 20%
Towers: 20%

Groundball%

Silva: 47%
Towers: 43%

Flyball%

Silva: 33%
Towers: 37%

HR/FB% (park-adjusted by THT)

Silva: 14%
Towers: 13%

FIP

Silva: 4.76
Towers: 4.71

xFIP

Silva: 4.63
Towers: 4.54

Platoon split

Silva: +.102 OPS vs. lefties
Towers: -.016 vs. lefties

----------

Cost

Silva: $44m/4yr
Towers: pretty much nothing

----------

Carlos Silva is better than Josh Towers when it comes to:

-avoiding walks, getting groundballs, facing righties

Carlos Silva is the same as Josh Towers when it comes to:

-throwing strikes, throwing first-pitch strikes, allowing home runs, allowing line drives

Carlos Silva is worse than Josh Towers when it comes to:

-missing bats, getting strikeouts, facing lefties

One of these pitchers was considered to be the best FA starter on the market. The other got non-tendered. Objectively speaking, they're pretty much equivalents, as the differences between them essentially balance out (that is, while it's good that Silva gets more grounders, Towers makes up for that by missing more bats).

In looking to address their rotation, the Mariners were presented with a choice: go after the name, the established, steady arm held in high regard, or go after someone else every bit as good, but who comes at a tiny fraction of the cost.

They, of course, chose the former, because they suck at pitcher evaluation.

This move is a waste. Yeah, Silva makes the team better. But so would a lot of other guys, and a lot of other guys wouldn't cost us nearly as much in terms of money or years. It's like walking into a grocery store in Beverly Hills and paying $4 for a Coke when there's a $0.25 vending machine for sweet, delicious, always-smooth Select cola right outside the door. The Mariners are throwing money away because they don't know any better.

That's why this sucks.

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That's cherrypicking.
If you drop his atypical 2005 career year, he looks horrible.

by Tom2000 on Dec 19, 2007 1:56 AM PST   0 recs

Cherrypicking my ass
For their respective careers:

Towers: 91 ERA+ / 3.17 K/BB / 4.79 K/9

Silva: 102 ERA+ / 2.31 K/BB / 3.76 K/9

Towers '05 (which you claim to be cherrypicked): 120 ERA+ / 3.86 K/BB / 4.84 K/9

Silva '05 (which apparently you have no problem with): 129 ERA+ / 7.89 K/BB / 3.39 K/9

Compared to their CAREER numbers, which are a bit skewed for both, given appearances in relief (although skewed in FAVOR of Silva, given his 134 relief apperances to Towers, given his 25), their '05 campaigns were pretty similarly above their career averages.

Towers' 2005 percent above career average:

32% better ERA+
21.8% better K/BB
1% better K/9

Silva's 2005 percent above career average:

26% better ERA+
242% (not a typo) better K/BB
-10% K/9

Arguably, they were both reasonably similarly above their career averages in the 2005 season, so I think it's safe to say that Jeff's not cherrypicking.

Plus, Silva's '05 would look like a BIGGER aberation if you took out his relief appearances when he played in AAAA.

by andrewgolfsalot on Dec 19, 2007 6:32 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Cherrypicking my ass too!
You could even say he was a better pitcher in 2007 than in 2005.  The 1.5 K/9 jump outweighs the extre .5 BB/9, while everying else controllable looks like luck.  9.1 HR/FB in 2005 as much toward the good luck side as 14.1 HR/FB in 2007 is toward the bad; further, he hasd a 63.7% LOB rate in 2007, compared to a career norm of 69.2% much more in line with an expected rate.  In fact, his xFIP was better in 2007 (4.31) than in 2005 (4.42).

Further, of the numbers Jeff posted, his 2007 K% was significantly better (16%) than the three year average, and swinging strikes and first pitch strikes were each up a percent.  Everything else was basically identical.  2005 did not unduly sway those three-year averages.

There is just no way you can say the 2005 season is 1) an outlier in terms of true talent evaluation, or 2) biases the three year averages above.  The only abberation in 2005 is his ERA, which was undeservedly good and makes 2005 stand out at first glance.

by david h on Dec 19, 2007 8:14 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

including
an impressive multiple home runs per fly ball.  Two different years, nonetheless!

I'll stop replying to myself now.

by david h on Dec 19, 2007 8:46 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Silva was absurd in 2005 too
and I went back three years because that's how far back the typical projection system goes. Three years is pretty much the limit of useful historical data.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Dude, Jeff ...
pop costs $5 at strip clubs.

Shit, now that's a waste of money.

by AK1984 on Dec 19, 2007 2:05 AM PST   0 recs

The glass is half full
Of all the bad things that could have happened so far, this is possibly the most benign.

We don't lose Captain Jones
We pick up a #4/5 starter
  (If only we had a #2/3)
We placate the fans who don't know any better
Bill Bavasi felt like he "accomplished" something

And for what? 4/44? In a pitching market this tight, with salary inflation on the horizon and with a general manager unwilling to consider replacement level players, 4/44 seems reasonable.

Would I do it? No. But I say this move leaves me with a smirk.

Judgment of a "didn't screw yourself up" move is refined by the next move(s). If Bavasi can restrain himself then it's not a disaster.

If...

by solap1 on Dec 19, 2007 6:55 AM PST   0 recs

Jeff,
did you factor out Towers RP stats?

by Matthew on Dec 19, 2007 7:11 AM PST   0 recs

No
If I did that I couldn't get the pitch data. But because it's only ten appearances, I don't think it makes much of a difference.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:45 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I mean 13.
But, for example, Towers' K% only drops from 13.7% to 13.2% if you take them out. It makes a little difference on the numbers, but it doesn't make a difference on the overall picture.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:53 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

With the exception of 2005
Silva consistently goes more innings than Towers. 773 IP over the past four seasons isn't worth $44M, but it does help understand why Bavasi chose to go after someone durable rather than someone cheap.
Yesterday's Pants

by Katal LM on Dec 19, 2007 7:15 AM PST   0 recs

Not true
The innings are true, but not the durability.  In 2004 he was an oft-skipped 5th starter.  In 2005 he made 33 starts and went 208 innings, 6 1/3 per start.  In 2006 he had an extra 101 1/3 innings in the minors, and was in the bullpen for a short time (3 of his 15 appearances).  In 2007 his innings were kept low because 10 of his 15 appearances were from the 'pen, and I imagine his usage was kept low because his ERA obscured what was arguably his best season.

As far as I can tell from his game logs and google(and I very well may have overlooked something), he hasn't been on the DL since being placed on the 60-day in October of 2001 - but even then, he was pitching for Baltimore in April before being sent down.

by david h on Dec 19, 2007 7:52 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

*10 of 25
not 10 of 15 in 2007.

I swear by some point today I'll stop both mistyping and replying to myself.

by david h on Dec 19, 2007 10:00 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

SIlva only looks more durable
because Towers has been yanked from the rotation and sent to the minors for ineffectiveness. Ineffectiness when he wasn't in actuality pitching much worse than Carlos Silva.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:56 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Bad analogy
I'll pay $4 for a Coke every time. Select Cola is gross.

I won't pay $44m over $4y to Carlos Silva when I can have Josh Towers instead

Washington Highways

by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 19, 2007 7:20 AM PST   0 recs

I pay $0.89 at QFC for distilled water
And hot water at work is always free.

by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 9:10 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm with Corco on this,
Select Cola is nasty, just like A+ Cola and aall those other "generics". I'll pay the extra money for the Coke if I can afford it.

That's like saying it's foolish to go inside and buy Snow Cap Ale, when there is a special on Schmidt at the 7-11 across the street.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Coke is vastly superior
but I wouldn't pay 4 bucks for one.
"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Dec 19, 2007 9:49 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Honestly if those were my choices,
I would skip both the $4.00 Coke and the $.25 Select, but I had to throw the beer comp out there.
I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:58 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Colon = Beer
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 10:23 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

My colon does not equal beer.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Dec 19, 2007 11:34 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Are you sure about that
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 11:37 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Safeway Select is the shit
Or, I guess now that I'm in California, Vons Select is the shit.

They also make awesome Southwest Salsa.

by Teej on Dec 19, 2007 1:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

The M's would take a $6 Pepsi
thats already been open, cause thats how they roll
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Dec 19, 2007 1:41 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Addendum
Carlos Silva is better than Josh Towers when it comes to:

-avoiding walks, getting groundballs, facing righties, getting maximum return out of $14.95 buffets

by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 8:48 AM PST   0 recs

well...
getting maximum return out of $14.95 buffets

well... that is most definitely a repeatable skill...

by seattlebruin on Dec 19, 2007 1:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Also,
if we do this AND trade Adam, I will kill a person or six.

by PShwa on Dec 19, 2007 9:35 AM PST   0 recs

We have not signed him yet, correct?
What are the chances we get lucky and he refuses?
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 9:41 AM PST   0 recs

Nothing is official yet.
No announcment from the M's or from Silva's reps.
I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Maybe the Rangers will offer 6/90!
"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Dec 19, 2007 9:50 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Who's gonna turn down a Junior Mint?
It's chocolate, it's peppermint-- it's delicious!

Similarly, what mediocre starter turns down a 4 year / 44 million dollar contract?

Not as chocolate-y, nowhere near as peppermint-y, but far more delicious in the long run.

by andrewgolfsalot on Dec 19, 2007 9:53 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Today's "mantra"?
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48

-- or even better --

Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48

"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Dec 19, 2007 10:19 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Except...
Of course with the caveat that no matter how bad this deal seems, Plan D is probably even worse...
"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Dec 19, 2007 10:21 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

KOMO's already reporting an imminent deal
which tells me it's about to happen.

by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 10:01 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Flight times to Venezuela
Looking at Expedia, getting from Seattle to Caracas range from ~14 hours to ~21 hours, while from Kansas City the range drops to ~8.5 hours to ~15 hours.  Does anyone know if his wife and son live there or in the states?

Just looking for any reason to hope.

by david h on Dec 19, 2007 9:57 AM PST   0 recs

why 4/44?
I wonder if we even attempted to get him for less years. Are there any other teams that are even interested in him?

by Zack on Dec 19, 2007 10:30 AM PST   0 recs

You compare the mighty Silva to Josh Towers?
INCONCEIVABLE!!

These numbers are obviously manufactured and an attempt to sour the great name of Silva.

If this blog does not right the wrong it has made, I will find solace elsewhere. Where they appreciate Silva's talents and all he has to offer a baseball team.

INCONCEIVABLE!!

We WANT Silva, damn it!

by I Heart Silva on Dec 19, 2007 10:40 AM PST   0 recs

Still too soon.
I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 11:00 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

You keep using that word
I do not think it means what you think it means.

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Dec 19, 2007 3:54 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I think you mean BLASPHEMY!!
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Dec 19, 2007 4:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Catastrophuck.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 11:46 AM PST   0 recs

PI's Hickey says
Deal could be announced TOMORROW.

by Slica on Dec 19, 2007 11:58 AM PST   0 recs

Please don't let Towers become
the next Thompson... or Thomson...

or whoever you whiners talk about being the shit... and then never eat crow when the dude accomplishes squat while Batista has a pretty good year.

by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 2:01 PM PST   0 recs

With John Thomson
we wouldn't have needed to trade for Horacio Ramirez.

So I can be clear, do you think Silva is a demonstrably better pitcher than Josh Towers?

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I do!
But it's eerily close.

by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 2:06 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Okay, well, yeah
now, better enough to justify spending $44m/4yr on one instead of ~$2m/1yr on the other?

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

There's an interesting question
Towers' only non-punching-bag year was 2005, while Silva, despite a limited skillset, has managed passable seasons over his career save for 2006.  How is it that Towers has had a demonstrably lesser career than Silva if their peripherals and pitching situations are roughly similar?

by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 2:12 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

In the last three years
Towers has had a good season, a decent season, and a bad season, while Silva has had a good season, an average season, and a bad season.

The only thing keeping Towers from a fine ERA last year was inordinately bad luck stranding runners.

While I give Silva a slight edge, the point here is that, if you can reasonably argue that two pitchers are similar, it doesn't make sense to pay one $44m/4yr when the other one is essentially free.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Also, for the record
when Towers was getting his ass beat in 2006, the Jays sent him back to AAA, and he was fine. There wasn't anything wrong with him, just a streak of uncharacteristically bad results.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:24 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Which belies the point
that Silva is not worth 4/44, but still.

by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 2:21 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I just meant
that there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over these contracts.

And now people are looking at Washburn and Batista and thinking they aren't such bad deals after all... given the current market.  And here's another one... I wish we had paid Gil Meche and kept him.  He'd get about the same contract we're about to give Silva... and will probably perform better over the life of that contract.  No these guys aren't Santana or Peavy... but who the hell is?  Only a handful of lucky teams have TRUE ACES on their roster... everyone else gets it done with patchwork rotations.

In a year or two, there's a very decent chance we'll be pleased with the Silva signing.  He's more likely to be a solid starter (if only slightly more likely) than Towers.

But why not sign Towers too?  Or perhaps Prior or Weaver to one year deals.  This signing doesn't prevent that.  It doesn't hurt the team in any real way.

It's not like we're missing out on signing Albert Pujols because we might overspend on Silva.  And it's not like the Mariners are going to lower ticket prices if they kept the 10 million instead.

by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 3:30 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I still hate all three deals,
regardless of 'market value'

There's a fixed minimum cost which is entirely unaffected by free agency, which makes the whole idea of market value a bit strange: it's not preventing you from having pitchers on the cheap.

I think Silva will be a solid starter, yes, and he's not getting in the way of any acquisitions next year... it's years 3 and 4 that things start getting worrisome.

by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 3:41 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

But by year 3 or 4
His deal will be a bargain.

by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 3:42 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

And only if
he still produces at his current level.  Which is by no means a certainty.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:45 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Relative to what?
The going rate for similar pitchers on the FA market? Who cares? The teams paying those rates to those similar pitchers are stupid.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:44 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

That's actually not a bad name
the Seattle Stupids.  It kinda rolls off the tongue.  If only I had Photoshop at work, I could whip up a logo to go with it.  
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Stupidity runs rampant
not just in baseball...

anyone that shops at a Name brand store instead of a department store is basically doing the same thing as The Mariners... paying more for a name when the products are quite similar.

by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:49 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yep
Except at least the people who buy name brand clothing stand a better chance of getting laid at Hollywood soirees.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

by years 3-4
Washburn will be done with his contract, as will Batista, Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, Kenji, and who knows who will be dealt before then.  This contract doesn't prohibit the M's from anything unless "THEY" want it to.

by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

SO?
wow... that was probably the most thought out reply I've ever come across...

by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

But they DO want it to, indirectly
Just because the number is large ($110m?), don't lose sight of the fact that the Mariners do in fact operate under a budget.  If they're overpaying for mediocrity right now, and by August they realize that the players they have are not enough to, uh, accomplish whatever goal they have, then Bavasi has to go to Armstrong and Lincoln and prove that they need more players and an increase in budget.  This is by no means an automatic thing.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:54 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

That much is true
but based on what we've come to learn from this front office, they'll just replace the people going off the books with shiny new wastes.

If the Mariners suddenly have a change of heart and turn into a smart, efficient organization, then Silva's deal won't matter; $11m a year won't cripple us. But that seems unlikely to me, meaning Silva is just contributing to the problem.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

but if it continues
then its only a problem in judgement, not a problem that prohibits them from doing anything, since they would be continuing on the same path they've been on.

Money isn't the issue with the M's... judgement of talent is the issue.

by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:52 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

It is prohibitive, though
the Mariners have a high budget, but they still have a budget. And right now (and for the foreseeable future), a lot of that budget is tied up in a very mediocre group of players.

by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

The current market doesn't matter.
Just because Jarrod Washburn could probably get more as an FA right now than we're paying him doesn't make him a good deal. A good FA deal is generally still a bad deal overall.

Forget looking at these things in isolation. In 2008, the Mariners will be paying ~$50m for Silva, Sexson, Washburn, Vidro, and Batista. In 2009, only Sexson comes off the books (assuming Vidro gets his vesting option).

Find another team paying more for a worse group of players.

It's a waste. It's a waste of money. And wasted money adds up real, real quick.

by Jeff on