Why Carlos Silva Isn't Totally Awesome
I'm stealing Matthew's idea and running with it.
(2005-2007 statistics)
K%
Silva: 9.6%
Towers: 13.7%
unintentionalBB%
Silva: 2.9%
Towers: 4.3%
HR%
Silva: 3.5%
Towers: 3.6%
Strike%
Silva: 67%
Towers: 68%
1st pitch strike%
Silva: 67%
Towers: 66%
Swinging strike%
Silva: 8%
Towers: 11%
Line Drive%
Silva: 20%
Towers: 20%
Groundball%
Silva: 47%
Towers: 43%
Flyball%
Silva: 33%
Towers: 37%
HR/FB% (park-adjusted by THT)
Silva: 14%
Towers: 13%
FIP
Silva: 4.76
Towers: 4.71
xFIP
Silva: 4.63
Towers: 4.54
Platoon split
Silva: +.102 OPS vs. lefties
Towers: -.016 vs. lefties
----------
Cost
Silva: $44m/4yr
Towers: pretty much nothing
----------
Carlos Silva is better than Josh Towers when it comes to:
-avoiding walks, getting groundballs, facing righties
Carlos Silva is the same as Josh Towers when it comes to:
-throwing strikes, throwing first-pitch strikes, allowing home runs, allowing line drives
Carlos Silva is worse than Josh Towers when it comes to:
-missing bats, getting strikeouts, facing lefties
One of these pitchers was considered to be the best FA starter on the market. The other got non-tendered. Objectively speaking, they're pretty much equivalents, as the differences between them essentially balance out (that is, while it's good that Silva gets more grounders, Towers makes up for that by missing more bats).
In looking to address their rotation, the Mariners were presented with a choice: go after the name, the established, steady arm held in high regard, or go after someone else every bit as good, but who comes at a tiny fraction of the cost.
They, of course, chose the former, because they suck at pitcher evaluation.
This move is a waste. Yeah, Silva makes the team better. But so would a lot of other guys, and a lot of other guys wouldn't cost us nearly as much in terms of money or years. It's like walking into a grocery store in Beverly Hills and paying $4 for a Coke when there's a $0.25 vending machine for sweet, delicious, always-smooth Select cola right outside the door. The Mariners are throwing money away because they don't know any better.
That's why this sucks.
0 recs |
94 comments
Comments
That's cherrypicking.
by Tom2000 on Dec 19, 2007 1:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Cherrypicking my ass
Towers: 91 ERA+ / 3.17 K/BB / 4.79 K/9
Silva: 102 ERA+ / 2.31 K/BB / 3.76 K/9
Towers '05 (which you claim to be cherrypicked): 120 ERA+ / 3.86 K/BB / 4.84 K/9
Silva '05 (which apparently you have no problem with): 129 ERA+ / 7.89 K/BB / 3.39 K/9
Compared to their CAREER numbers, which are a bit skewed for both, given appearances in relief (although skewed in FAVOR of Silva, given his 134 relief apperances to Towers, given his 25), their '05 campaigns were pretty similarly above their career averages.
Towers' 2005 percent above career average:
32% better ERA+
21.8% better K/BB
1% better K/9
Silva's 2005 percent above career average:
26% better ERA+
242% (not a typo) better K/BB
-10% K/9
Arguably, they were both reasonably similarly above their career averages in the 2005 season, so I think it's safe to say that Jeff's not cherrypicking.
Plus, Silva's '05 would look like a BIGGER aberation if you took out his relief appearances when he played in AAAA.
by andrewgolfsalot on Dec 19, 2007 6:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cherrypicking my ass too!
Further, of the numbers Jeff posted, his 2007 K% was significantly better (16%) than the three year average, and swinging strikes and first pitch strikes were each up a percent. Everything else was basically identical. 2005 did not unduly sway those three-year averages.
There is just no way you can say the 2005 season is 1) an outlier in terms of true talent evaluation, or 2) biases the three year averages above. The only abberation in 2005 is his ERA, which was undeservedly good and makes 2005 stand out at first glance.
by david h on Dec 19, 2007 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Silva was absurd in 2005 too
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, Jeff ...
Shit, now that's a waste of money.
by AK1984 on Dec 19, 2007 2:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The glass is half full
We don't lose Captain Jones
We pick up a #4/5 starter
(If only we had a #2/3)
We placate the fans who don't know any better
Bill Bavasi felt like he "accomplished" something
And for what? 4/44? In a pitching market this tight, with salary inflation on the horizon and with a general manager unwilling to consider replacement level players, 4/44 seems reasonable.
Would I do it? No. But I say this move leaves me with a smirk.
Judgment of a "didn't screw yourself up" move is refined by the next move(s). If Bavasi can restrain himself then it's not a disaster.
If...
by solap1 on Dec 19, 2007 6:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jeff,
by Matthew on Dec 19, 2007 7:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean 13.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With the exception of 2005
by Katal LM on Dec 19, 2007 7:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not true
As far as I can tell from his game logs and google(and I very well may have overlooked something), he hasn't been on the DL since being placed on the 60-day in October of 2001 - but even then, he was pitching for Baltimore in April before being sent down.
by david h on Dec 19, 2007 7:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SIlva only looks more durable
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad analogy
I won't pay $44m over $4y to Carlos Silva when I can have Josh Towers instead
by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 19, 2007 7:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I pay $0.89 at QFC for distilled water
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Corco on this,
That's like saying it's foolish to go inside and buy Snow Cap Ale, when there is a special on Schmidt at the 7-11 across the street.
by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Coke is vastly superior
by JI on Dec 19, 2007 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly if those were my choices,
by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Colon = Beer
by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My colon does not equal beer.
by Phildopip on Dec 19, 2007 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure about that
by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Safeway Select is the shit
They also make awesome Southwest Salsa.
by Teej on Dec 19, 2007 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The M's would take a $6 Pepsi
by kentroyals5 on Dec 19, 2007 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Addendum
-avoiding walks, getting groundballs, facing righties, getting maximum return out of $14.95 buffets
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 8:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
well...
well... that is most definitely a repeatable skill...
by seattlebruin on Dec 19, 2007 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
by PShwa on Dec 19, 2007 9:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
We have not signed him yet, correct?
by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 9:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nothing is official yet.
by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the Rangers will offer 6/90!
by JI on Dec 19, 2007 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who's gonna turn down a Junior Mint?
Similarly, what mediocre starter turns down a 4 year / 44 million dollar contract?
Not as chocolate-y, nowhere near as peppermint-y, but far more delicious in the long run.
by andrewgolfsalot on Dec 19, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Today's "mantra"?
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
Please o please Kansas City offer 4/48
-- or even better --
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
Please o please Texas offer 4/48
by PositivePaul on Dec 19, 2007 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except...
by PositivePaul on Dec 19, 2007 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hope the loser among the two
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
KOMO's already reporting an imminent deal
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Flight times to Venezuela
Just looking for any reason to hope.
by david h on Dec 19, 2007 9:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
why 4/44?
by Zack on Dec 19, 2007 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You compare the mighty Silva to Josh Towers?
These numbers are obviously manufactured and an attempt to sour the great name of Silva.
If this blog does not right the wrong it has made, I will find solace elsewhere. Where they appreciate Silva's talents and all he has to offer a baseball team.
INCONCEIVABLE!!
by I Heart Silva on Dec 19, 2007 10:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Still too soon.
by Thingray on Dec 19, 2007 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You keep using that word
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Dec 19, 2007 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you mean BLASPHEMY!!
by kentroyals5 on Dec 19, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Catastrophuck.
by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 11:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
PI's Hickey says
by Slica on Dec 19, 2007 11:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Please don't let Towers become
or whoever you whiners talk about being the shit... and then never eat crow when the dude accomplishes squat while Batista has a pretty good year.
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 2:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
With John Thomson
So I can be clear, do you think Silva is a demonstrably better pitcher than Josh Towers?
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, well, yeah
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's an interesting question
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In the last three years
The only thing keeping Towers from a fine ERA last year was inordinately bad luck stranding runners.
While I give Silva a slight edge, the point here is that, if you can reasonably argue that two pitchers are similar, it doesn't make sense to pay one $44m/4yr when the other one is essentially free.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still think we should re-sign Weaver
by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, for the record
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which belies the point
by Gomez on Dec 19, 2007 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just meant
And now people are looking at Washburn and Batista and thinking they aren't such bad deals after all... given the current market. And here's another one... I wish we had paid Gil Meche and kept him. He'd get about the same contract we're about to give Silva... and will probably perform better over the life of that contract. No these guys aren't Santana or Peavy... but who the hell is? Only a handful of lucky teams have TRUE ACES on their roster... everyone else gets it done with patchwork rotations.
In a year or two, there's a very decent chance we'll be pleased with the Silva signing. He's more likely to be a solid starter (if only slightly more likely) than Towers.
But why not sign Towers too? Or perhaps Prior or Weaver to one year deals. This signing doesn't prevent that. It doesn't hurt the team in any real way.
It's not like we're missing out on signing Albert Pujols because we might overspend on Silva. And it's not like the Mariners are going to lower ticket prices if they kept the 10 million instead.
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still hate all three deals,
There's a fixed minimum cost which is entirely unaffected by free agency, which makes the whole idea of market value a bit strange: it's not preventing you from having pitchers on the cheap.
I think Silva will be a solid starter, yes, and he's not getting in the way of any acquisitions next year... it's years 3 and 4 that things start getting worrisome.
by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But by year 3 or 4
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Only compared to the other retarded contracts
by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And only if
by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Relative to what?
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's actually not a bad name
by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stupidity runs rampant
anyone that shops at a Name brand store instead of a department store is basically doing the same thing as The Mariners... paying more for a name when the products are quite similar.
by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
by years 3-4
by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SO?
by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But they DO want it to, indirectly
by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That much is true
If the Mariners suddenly have a change of heart and turn into a smart, efficient organization, then Silva's deal won't matter; $11m a year won't cripple us. But that seems unlikely to me, meaning Silva is just contributing to the problem.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but if it continues
Money isn't the issue with the M's... judgement of talent is the issue.
by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It is prohibitive, though
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The current market doesn't matter.
Forget looking at these things in isolation. In 2008, the Mariners will be paying ~$50m for Silva, Sexson, Washburn, Vidro, and Batista. In 2009, only Sexson comes off the books (assuming Vidro gets his vesting option).
Find another team paying more for a worse group of players.
It's a waste. It's a waste of money. And wasted money adds up real, real quick.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Braves are paying Mike Hampton
by JI on Dec 19, 2007 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we didn't sign any free agents
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So sign people like Adam Everett and Bradley
by Graham on Dec 19, 2007 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sure, you could do that
Wait, I think I did that wrong.
by pdb on Dec 19, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about that
The middle-tier FA's have always been the most overpriced. These are the people that smart teams avoid. Do you hear anything about Cleveland talking to Silva or Lohse? Oakland? San Diego? Boston? The players to target are the ones on top or the ones at the bottom of the barrel.
You can do a lot with financial flexibility. Sign top FA's. Trade for expensive players. Re-sign your top youth. It's of vital importance.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Other teams
Oakland wouldn't pay $2 for a sandwich at this point. They don't care because they're punting.
Boston has more money than God, went after all the big names and got the ones they wanted. The M's didn't have the $$$ to compete with Boston on Daisuke or Beckett.
San Diego... well I don't know because I don't live there and therefore don't have to follow the junior circuit.
And Cleveland is the model... yeah... they're the ones that are living high on the hog right now... like the Oakland A's of yesterday. They drafted well, parlayed their stars into good prospects, and are maturing on target. They'll pick up a mid-tier free agent or two... maybe just the right bat or relief pitcher to make their playoff run... but they punted several years ago and it's paying off now.
The M's don't punt. They decided it was against their business plan to punt. So they're in danger of becoming the new Baltimore. Oddly, Baltimore IS punting... so they have a chance to become pretty good before long. It'll just be us and the Dodgers who have no excuse for missing the playoffs with a top tier payroll.
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Being desperate for starters
We did have the money to compete with Boston for Daisuke; we chose not to.
The Mariners are in the unenviable position of having an average roster despite a high payroll. The way out of this isn't to try and force contention, though; the way out is to learn how to spend better and become more efficient, taking a few extra losses along the way if you have to. It may not be as pretty in the short-term, but it's a hell of a lot better than turning into, well, the Orioles.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree Jeff
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2007 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Still coming.
by Librocrat on Dec 19, 2007 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never advocated punting 2008-2009
And this doesn't prevent them from trading for Bedard.
by Jeff on Dec 20, 2007 3:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want them to trade for Bedard
Unless Bedard comes packaged with Brian Roberts... in which case one or two of our big 3 offensive prospects would have to be included.
But then we'd probably be right there with Anaheim and it would be a fun season to watch.
by johnbai on Dec 20, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Towers vs. Silva
Silva 945ip .458slg allowed 128 dp induced 31hb 21SF 40/25 sb/cs ratio (yes some has to do with catchers)
Towers 726ip .491slg allowed 68gb induced 34hb 26SF 65/22 sb/cs ratio
Looks like Silva does more to help get himself out of trouble then Towers is able to.
by MfaninAlaska on Dec 19, 2007 2:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well
Silva: .469 SLG against since 2005
Towers: .477 SLG against
Silva will get more DP's, being a little bit more of a groundball pitcher, but then again, Towers will strike more people out.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2007 2:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

by 












